Välismaa uudised

Intense rainfall and major flooding continues with ex-hurricane Florence

Severe Weather Europe - 16. September 2018 - 1:25


A very intense rainfall with major flash floods in still on going across parts of North Carolina, a day after landfall of hurricane Florence. Now the center of Florence is weakened and inland over the eastern South Carolina, but a pronounced moisture flux convergence is maintaining a robust convective line/band from the warm Atlantic ashore into North Carolina. Locally more than 25-30 inches (600-750 mm) of rainfall has already been reported. As well as major flooding on going. Additional rainfall is expected as models are suggesting convective bands will be maintaining for another 36 hours. Satellite imagery of Florence revealing an impressive structure of the vortex with intense convective lines maintaining across North Carolina. Model simualation of a very well-defined […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Very warm week ahead for parts of Europe: locally up to 8-12 °C warmer than average

Severe Weather Europe - 15. September 2018 - 23:12


A very warm week is ahead for parts of Europe this week. Much of the continent will be significantly warmer than is average for this period. The warmest parts will be central, eastern and southeastern Europe. Temperatures will be up to 8-12 °C higher than average for this period. In absolute terms, this means temperatures up to 30 °C and locally even higher. Southwestern and central France will likely push above 30 °C on Monday, with southern France going possibly up to 33-34 °C in the middle of the week. Germany will be warm as well, northwestern parts may reach 30 °C on Tuesday and Wednesday. Other parts of Germany will push into the upper 20s. Poland too will likely […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Tropical storm Helene nearing western Azores, expected to bring severe winds this evening

Severe Weather Europe - 15. September 2018 - 18:41


The most western island of Azores – Flores – will be hit by an ex-hurricane Helene storm this evening. Helene is bringing tropical storm force winds into the area and expected to transforms into a post-tropical storm tomorrow. Helene is actually still revealing a quite impressive satellite presentation this afternoon, despite gradually loosing its tropical behaviour. We can see quite large system approaching western Azores with quite a lot of deep convection across the areas SW of Azores. Notice also a Tropical storm Joyce to the SW of Helene. Tropical storm conditions should spread over portions of the Azores during the next several hours and continue through tonight. Qualls of heavy rainfall are expected as well at times. Here is […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

The Baltic Sea is up to 3-4 °C warmer than average right now

Severe Weather Europe - 15. September 2018 - 13:23


The unusually warm summer with several prolonged heat waves still reverbrates in the Baltic sea as it remains much warmer than average. Parts of the sea are up to 3-4 °C above average! As is the case with the Mediterranean sea, the Baltic sea is unusually warm. Latest analysis indicates parts of the southern and northeastern Baltic, along the coasts of Poland and Finland, is 3-4 °C above the 1982-2010 average. Elsewhere the temperature is about 1.5-2.5 °C above average. This translates into temperatures of about 18-19 °C in the southern part and 15-16 °C in the northern part. Sea surface temperature anomaly (difference between current and average temperature) over the Baltic sea on September 14. Map: our co-admin Andrej […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Super Typhoon Mangkhut makes a devastating hit on northern Luzon, continues into the South China Sea

Severe Weather Europe - 15. September 2018 - 12:52


CAT5 Super Typhoon made landfall over northern Luzon late yesterday, September 14. The typhoon passed over the northern part of the island, loosing some of its strength. It has now entered the South China Sea and is again rapidly gaining strength and organization. Latest Himawari-8 imagery of Typhoon Manghkut near local sunset (8:50 UTC). Image brightened to show structure better. Image: Himawari-8 / NOAA RAMMB CIRA. Lanfall was around 17:20 UTC near Kinayabutan Beach, northern Luzon.The system rapdily lost strength as it passed across land, dropping to max sustained winds of 130 mph (209 km/h). While that is a significant drop in strength, it is still a Category 4 typhoon, a very powerful and dangerous system. Reports of major damage […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Super Typhoon Mangkhut makes landfall over northern Luzon, Philippines late on Friday, September 14

Severe Weather Europe - 15. September 2018 - 0:55


CAT5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut has made landfall over northern Luzon, Philippines. Satellites indicate the typhoon likely reached its peak strength just before landfall. The system was packing 165 mph (265 km/h) sustained winds several hours before landfall. Satellite imagery indicated additional strengthening of the system just prior to landfall. Also evident was a tight and highly symmetric, circular eye, indicating a stable and very strong system. Landfall happened around 17:20 UTC near Kinayabutan Beach. Afterwards the eye rapidly collapsed as the system was disrupted by the landmass of Luzon island. Stay tuned for further updates as damage reports come in and as further details of the typhoon’s track into the South China sea become available.

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

A powerful windstorm associated with ex-hurricane Helene increasingly likely to hit Ireland on Monday afternoon

Severe Weather Europe - 14. September 2018 - 14:10


Hurricane Helene has gradually weakened this morning and is now a strong Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 65 mph and 992 mbar central pressure. Its future track will lead it towards the Azores by tomrorow afternoon (Saturday, Sept 15th) and then likely towards the British Isles and Ireland on late Monday or early Tuesday, Sept 18th. Models are suggesting it will remain a very powerful post-tropical storm once it approaches the western Europe. The most supported scenario of ex-Helene’s arrival into western Europe is nearing the SW Ireland on Monday late afternoon and evening time. Models have been quite consistent with this trend in the past 48 hours. The transition into an extratropical cyclone will likely be completed […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Extremely powerful Super Typhoon Mangkhut nearing Luzon, Philippines

Severe Weather Europe - 14. September 2018 - 12:26


Mangkhut remains an extremely powerful typhoon as it continues moving WNW towards the northern tip of Luzon island, Philippines. It packs sustained winds of 165-170 mph (265-274 km/h) with central pressure around 900 mbar. Mangkhut’s landfall is expected early on Saturday (Sept 15th) morning local time. An exceptional Himawari-8 satellite presentation of Category 5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut during the sunset time over Philippines. These are the likely forecast tracks per various model runs, a direct hit/landfall in the northern tip of Luzon is expected. Typhoons of such intensity usually tend to wobble just prior to landfall so the exact future track is very hard to forecast. However, when Category 5 storms are concerned, a shift in track 50 km up/down […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Powerful hurricane Florence devastating North Carolina coast with major storm surge and flash floods

Severe Weather Europe - 14. September 2018 - 11:08


The now CAT 1 hurricane Florence is brushing the coastal areas of North Carolina now, resulting in major storm surge combined with very intense rainfall and flash floods. Numerous areas along the coast have already been flooded. Florence is moving very slowly towards west now, so these extreme weather conditions are expected to prevail through much of the night and morning hours local time. Radar and satellite analysis is revealing a still impressive structure of the inner eyewall, positioned about 30-40 miles off the coast SE of Wilmington, Carolina. This puts the coastal areas in greater danger as the almost complete and closed eyewall is being maintained over the warm waters and releasing its power ashore. Water vapour satellite image […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Strong heat wave for much of Europe next week – models agree

Severe Weather Europe - 14. September 2018 - 10:34


Mid-range model trends are confirming a new heat wave across Europe next: temperatures will likely be 8-10 °C higher than average for mid to late-September in central, western, eastern and southeastern Europe. This means temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s again! The heat wave comes as a response to a pattern change across much of Europe: a strong ridge develops over much of the continent, with deep troughs and lows – including the expected post-tropical storm Helen – forcing warm air advection ahead of them, a Spanish Plume setup over western Europe and a strong ridge elsewhere. Models agree on very high temperature anomaly: daytime highs will likely pushing as far as 30 °C as far north as […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Update: CAT5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut reintensifying as it tracks towards the Philippines

Severe Weather Europe - 14. September 2018 - 1:31


Super Typhoon Mangkhut has remained a powerful Category 5 system throughout the day today. It lost a slight bit of power in the first half of the day, as it went through an eyewall replacement cycle, but is now gaining strength again. Even as it weakened slightly, it never went below CAT5 strength. Mangkhut is on track to produce absolute devastation as it makes landfall on Luzon on Saturday! The Super Typhoon went through an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eye collapsing and being replaced by a stable, larger-diameter outer eye. As this happened the typhoon weakened, with peak winds decreasing from 180 mph (290 km/h) late on September 12 to 165 mph (265 km/h) by mid-day on September […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

An intense mid September heat wave to develop across Europe next week

Severe Weather Europe - 14. September 2018 - 0:27


“Indian summer” anyone? Models are confirming a likely intense early autumn heat wave to develop across much of Europe next week. In response to a changing pattern, strong warm advection will spread across central and northern Europe and bring 4-5 days of very warm to hot days. Deep troughs will be ongoing across the N Atlantic and a powerful upper ridge will develop to its east and dominate Europe. This will develop a heat wave after Tuesday, Sept 18th. The extreme warmth starts on Tuesday in response to a deep trough over the Atlantic and a push of strong warm advection onto western Europe, ahead of a post-tropical storm nearing British Isles and Ireland. A very warm day is expected […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Hurricane Florence strengthening again near the coast of North Carolina

Severe Weather Europe - 13. September 2018 - 23:55


Hurricane Florence has been maintaining a solid strong CAT 2 strength through all day. However, the last few hours satellite and radar data are revealing a gradual strengthening of the system: the inner eyewall has closed and it appears likely the hurricane is intensifying again! Latest NOAA Hurricane Hunters mission through the eye is confirming the satellite/radar analysis with pressure now at around 952 mbar (officially NHC put it to 955 mbar previously) and sustained winds of 90 knots. Florence has slowed down and is moving towards NW, nearing the landfall in North Carolina coast tonight. Latest radar imagery is revealing an impressive structure of the inner and also outer eyewall. Notice the inner eyewall has almost completely closed up. […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Weather forecasting sheds light on where and when birds will fly

ScienceDaily - 13. September 2018 - 21:20
September is the peak of autumn bird migration, and billions of birds are winging their way south. Using a combination of artificial intelligence and weather forecasting can help scientists to predict the movements of millions of birds and support their conservation goals, according to new research.
Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

NASA gets inside look at large and powerful Hurricane Florence

ScienceDaily - 13. September 2018 - 18:39
NASA's Aqua satellite provided an infrared look at the large and powerful Hurricane Florence early on Sept. 13, 2018 that indicated wind shear was temporarily affecting the southern side of the storm.
Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Climate-induced soil changes may cause more erosion and flash flooding

ScienceDaily - 13. September 2018 - 18:39
A new study predicts a climate-induced reduction in large soil pores, which may intensify the water cycle and contribute to more flash flooding and soil erosion by the end of the 21st century.
Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

UPDATE: Mangkhut remains a powerful CAT 5 typhoon and heads for N Philippines in 48 hours

Severe Weather Europe - 13. September 2018 - 17:55


The powerful Category 5 super typhoon Mangkhut has been showing an impressive satellite presentation throughout the day today, with some visible fluctuations in its intensity. It remained at the maximum strength and only slightly lower winds were observed: it is now packing 165 mph (265 km/h) winds with gusts up to 200 mph (322 km/h). Estimated central pressure is 907 mbar. While hurricanes are analyzed with satellites and also NOAA airplanes for data sampling, typhoons are monitored with satellites only. Mangkhut continues showing a very symmetric structure and is a very large system. The eyewall is closed and deep convection is ongoing. Basically there are no obvious signs Mangkhut is going to weaken significantly in the next 2 days prior […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Update on the potentially damaging windstorm (ex-hurricane Helene) towards Ireland early next week

Severe Weather Europe - 13. September 2018 - 16:36


Hurricane Helene is becoming better organized today, based on satellite imagery. It has sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) with a central pressure around 986 mbar. Its track will lead it towards the Azores this weekend and then likely towards the British Isles and Ireland on Tuesday next week. Models are suggesting it will remain a very powerful post-tropical storm once it approaches western Europe. Infrared satellite scans this afternoon are revealing a large eye surrounded by convective bands which suggests the storm remains a healthy CAT 1 hurricane and is expected to maintain this strength until it passes Azores on Sunday morning. Here is latest model guidance for Helene on Monday, Sept 17th when it will already acting […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Hurricane Florence now a CAT 2 but will bring devastating flooding for North Carolina tonight

Severe Weather Europe - 13. September 2018 - 13:05


Hurricane Florence has lost some of its strength and is now a solid strong CAT 2 hurricane, but it remains a very large storm. Due to significant interaction with some shear to its south, Florence outflow was disturbed and caused it to weaken further since last night. As landfall is still 18 hours away, it could re-strengthen back to CAT 3 given the more favorable conditions along its path towards North Carolina today. Morning satellite reveals still an impressive structure and ideal outflow ventilation on the northern side of Florence, while wind shear effect is evident on its southern side combined with the dry intrusion. However, very intense convection with colder cloud tops has lately appeared along the eyewall again. […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Strong heat wave increasingly likely for much of Europe next week!

Severe Weather Europe - 13. September 2018 - 11:48


Mid-range model trends are pushing for a new heat wave across Europe: temperatures may be 8-10 °C higher than average for mid to late-September in central, western, eastern and southeastern Europe. This means temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s again! Such a high temperature anomaly would mean actual daytime highs pushing as far as 30 °C as far north as northern Germany and parts of Benelux. Further south, in France, Italy and the Pannonian basin, including parts of Hungary, Croatia and Serbia, temperatures would push higher than 30 °C! Both GFS and ECMWF models agree, with the latter pushing for even warmer weather. All maps: Wxcharts.eu

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

15. oktoobri ekstreemumid 2008-2018

AastaMaks.KeskmineMin.
201820,1°C12,59°C3,8°C
201714,7°C10,11°C3,3°C
20167,5°C3,36°C-0,6°C
201512,4°C5,39°C-2,4°C
201410,5°C8,03°C2,8°C
201312,8°C8,55°C-1,2°C
201211,5°C8,30°C4,3°C
201111,5°C4,87°C-1,9°C
20106,9°C2,45°C-1,9°C
20096,3°C3,71°C-0,4°C
200813,9°C9,15°C3,2°C

Ilmateenistuse ennustus

4...13°C
13...18°C
4...12°C
12...17°C
4...12°C
12...16°C
2...10°C
8...11°C

Rõhkkonnad Eestis

PäevMadal- rõhkkondKõrg- rõhkkond
16.10.Viktor
15.10.Viktor
14.10.Viktor
13.10.Viktor
12.10.Viktor

Ennustuse täpsuse jooksva kuu parimad

AllikasPäevi%
Yr.no294,67%
Yr.no194,50%
Ilmateenistus 192,07%
Forecast.io191,50%
Forecast.io291,00%

Päevarekordid

Täna Tallinnas kõige soojem on olnud 15,6°C (1953) ja külmem -6,8°C (1976).

Täna Tartus kõige soojem on olnud 18,9°C (1907) ja külmem -6,5°C (1976).

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edela- ja lõunatuul 8-10 m/s.
edela- ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15 m/s.
lõuna- ja edelatuul puhanguti 15 m/s.

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