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Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large deep trough / low remains over N Atlantic while ridge is strengthening across the ENE Europe. A weak short-wave crosses the Alps ith a surface front over the N Balkans. Weak upper low remains over E Mediterranean and W Turkey. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for E Slovenia, N/E Croatia, E Austria, W Czechia, W-CNTRL Slovakia into S Poland and W-CNTRL Hungary, N Bosnia into NW Serbia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall and large to very large hail. Strong to extreme instability is again available over the risk area while surface winds should turn into NNE-erlies. Weak mid/upper-level winds are present aloft. This […]

A new study clarifies what influence major currents in the North Atlantic have on sea level along the northeastern United States.

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Strong trough / low persists across W Europe and N Atlantic while upper low remains over the N Mediterranean. A short-wave crosses S France in the afternoon hours while another wave with frontal system moves across NE Germany and Poland. In between, strong ridge persists across E-CNTRL and N Europe. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for NE Germany, N Czech Republic into N/W-CNTRL Poland with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and some tornado threat. Organized severe storms are expected to form along the cold front in the afternoon hours, within a strongly unstable and sheared environment. Supercells are likely with damaging hail and […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Strong ridge continues strengthening across the eastern half of Europe while deep trough with two deep cores remains over WSW Europe and N Atlantic. Short-wave trough crosses France towards Benelux with a northwards moving surface front. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for NE France into E Benelux and NNW Germany with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall and large hail. Organized storms are expected to develop along the northwards retreating frontal boundary by the late afternoon under moderate strong shear but marginal MLCAPE. Supercells are likely to develop as well, bringing large hail and severe winds as primary threats. SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding […]

Warming waters in the western tropical Pacific Ocean have significantly increased thunderstorms and rainfall, which may affect the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and global sea-level rise, according to a new tudy.

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Large trough with two cores sits over WSW Europe while ridge is established over S and E Europe. In between, a short-wave trough with a frontal boundary is located from the Alps towards the Baltic region. Upper low remains over E Mediterranean and the Middle East. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for NE Austria, W-CNTRL Slovakia, E Czech Republic across E-CNTRL Poland into the Baltic countries with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large to very large hail. Rather widespread activity is expected of strongly organized severe storms, including supercells and bowing segments with damaging winds and a very large hail threat. A cluster of storms […]

Giant petrels will be 'temporary' winners from the effects of climate change in the Antarctic region -- but males and females will benefit in very different ways, a new study shows.

The prime predators of the Baltic Sea at the top of the food web are losing weight, according to a new study that links the deteriorating health of gray seals and cod with changes in bottom-living crustaceans, isopods and amphipods.

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large deep low is located over WSW Europe, with a shallow upper low over E Mediterranean and Turkey. Strong ridge persists across ENE Europe. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for E half of Germany, extreme S Sweden, W-CNTRL Czech Republic, N Austria into W/N Poland and Baltic states with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes. While tornado threat seems mostly limited to the northern half of the risk areas where E-SE-erly LL wind profiles are better defined for enhanced SR helicity, very large hail will be the primary threat further south and west with discrete supercell storms. […]

Why did a giant hole appear in the sea ice off Antarctica in 2016 and 2017, after decades of more typical sea ice cover? Years of Southern Ocean data have explained the phenomenon, helping oceanographers to better predict these features and study their role in global ocean cycles.

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ +++ A significant threat for severe weather outbreak with intense supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes across E Germany, W Czech Republic and NW Poland is expected on Monday +++ SYNOPSIS A deepening trough / low is located over WSW Europe with a strong upper ridge to its east, over ENE Europe and the Balkan peninsula. In between, a powerful SW-erly jet stream is established. An upper low over E Mediterranean strengthens while moving north towards Turkey. At the surface, a broad cyclone is located across central Europe and the N Mediterranean with a secondary low forming on the Lee (north) side of the Alps. An associated wavy cold frontal boundary […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large upper trough / low persists across WSW Europe while an upper ridge dominates S-CNTRL and ENE Europe. An upper low is located over E Mediterranean and Egypt. At the surface, a diffuse frontal zone extends from Scandinavia SW-wards towards the N Balkans. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for parts of Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova and S Ukraine with threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential / excessive rainfall and large hail. Rather widespread slow-moving storms are expected, locally with flash floods and hail accumulation threat. SLGT risk has been issued for Belarus, NW Russia into N Finland with threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential rainfall, severe winds and large hail. […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A weakening upper trough / surface low is progressing NE from the W Europe across the North Sea into Scandinavia. A surface cold front pushes further NE into S Scandinavia and towards E Europe. Strong ridge persists across southern Europe and NW Russia. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for eastern Balkan countries with threat for marginally large hail with accumulation, severe winds and torrential / excessive rainfall. The widespread activity of some organized slow-moving storms with flash floods and hail accumulation threat is likely. SLGT risk has been issued for SW Russia, Georgia, E Turkey into the Middle East with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large to very large hail […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep trough / low is centered over WSW Europe with a deep cyclone moving from the Bay of Biscay into NW France. An extensive upper ridge persists across south, east and north Europe. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for N France, Benelux into NW Germany with threat for severe winds, torrential rainfall, large hail and some tornado threat. A severe line of storms will develop along the front and rapidly push across the risk area from SW to NE direction in the afternoon hours. Strong LL shear / helicity ahead of the front could support tornadic storms as well. Damaging winds are possible. ENH risk has been issued for W France into the […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A strong ridge persists across N-NE Europe while an upper low over the S Balkan peninsula weakens. To the west, a very deep trough with an intense surface cyclone and front moves across WSW Europe. Another front, associated with the low over the North Sea, continues across central Europe towards east. Another focus for robust convective activity remains a stalled diffuse frontal zone extends from the Baltic sea towards Georgia. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for NE Germany, E-CNTRL Czech Republic, W Poland, W-CNTRL Slovakia and E Denmark into S Sweden with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential / excessive rainfall. Scattered severe storms are expected to […]

An international survey finds that the number of honey bee colonies fell by 16 percent in the winter of 2017-18 across 38 countries.

Another round of severe thunderstorms will affect E France, BeNeLux and W Germany today. Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe straight line winds and torrential rainfall are expected. Tornado threat is somewhat elevated as well. Severe Weather Outlook: Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 05/06/2019) A broad low is positioned over western Europe, producing successive long wave troughs. A new trough pushes across the Iberian peninsula and France today, producing a new round of severe thunderstorms. The trough is rounded by a 60 kt mid-level (500 mbar) jetstreak, producing northerly mid-level flow over the region. A surface low will develop over E-CNTRL France by late morning, pushing northwards towards Belgium in the afternoon and evening hours. Backing easterly winds […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A strong ridge persists over ENE Europe while an upper low remains over the S Balkan peninsula. A deep trough over Atlantic drifts more east into WSW Europe with a surface cold front into France and Benelux. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for ENE France, E Benelux into W Germany with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large to very large hail, torrential rainfall with flash floods and tornadoes. Widespread convective storms are expected within the strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment ahead of the front. Similar to a day before, scattered supercell storms initiation is likely during the mid-afternoon hours. A favorable LL shear and helicity should again […]

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern and central France and BeNeLux today. Main severe weather threats include torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and severe straight line winds. A tornado is possible. Locally significant flooding is also expected. A long wave trough is pushing across western Europe today, bringing unstable weather to the region. A surface low develops over western France in the late morning and pushes across northern France into BeNeLux by early to mid afternoon. Moderate to locally strong instability will build up across the region by early afternoon. Up to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will be available in the warm sector of the low, locally peaking up to 2500 J/kg. Long wave trough over […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS An upper low is centered over the S Balkan peninsula, surrounded by high-pressure systems / ridging pattern across SW, central, east and north Europe. A deep trough is located over the N Atlantic and W Europe. A surface low develops over N France with a surface cold front extended south and a diffuse warm front to its NE across Benelux and N Germany. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for NE France, Benelux into NW Germany with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, tornadoes, large to very large hail and torrential rainfall with flash floods. A rather widespread convective activity is expected within the strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment. […]