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An upper low is located over the E Mediterranean and the Middle East with a gradually deepening surface low over the sea south of Cyprus. Fairly active convective storms are visible since mid-afternoon today. In addition, several models are hinting development of a shallow warm core tomorrow during the day and system could intensity further. […]

Who has enough of this unusually warm weather for mid-autumn and who is ready for winter? As mentioned yesterday – *Pattern shift* Weather pattern shift underway, will bring cold air to USA and Europe next week! Snow cover across hemisphere expands rapidly! – It appears likely we are facing the first serious cold Arctic outbreak […]

Widespread convective storms are ongoing across the western Mediterranean today, resulting in intense and excessive rainfall into southern France. Activity is gradually spreading east towards NW Italy. Locally up to near 200 mm is possible until tomorrow morning, Thursday, Oct 24th! The pattern supporting this activity reveals a strong ridge across E Europe with a […]

Super typhoon Bualoi continues to show an impressive structure and intensity today, it was maintaining a strong Category 4 strength through the last 24 hours and it continues towards Iwo Jima. The small island will get a direct hit and potential landfall of this violent typhoon in the next 18-24 hours, at around 15-18 UTC […]

October is slowly coming to an end, which means that the global circulation is going through some specific changes as we slowly move into the colder season for the Northern Hemisphere. We are witnessing an onset of a pattern change, which will enable the transport of colder air from the polar regions down into the […]

Bioscience engineers have developed a method to measure the snow depth in all mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere using satellites. This technique makes it possible to study areas that cannot be accessed for local measurements, such as the Himalayas.

New research, based on 33 historical El Niño events from 1901 to 2017, show climate change effects have shifted the El Niño onset location from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and caused more frequent extreme El Niño events since the 1970's. Continued warming over the western Pacific warm pool, driven by anthropogenic climate change, promises conditions that will trigger more extreme events in the future.

Typhoon Bualoi continues strengthening today and is now a solid Category 3 typhoon. As of 12 UTC today, Oct 21st, Bualoi has intensified from 80 mph to 120 mph within past 24 hours! It is now crossing the northern Marianas and is expected to head towards Japan’s Iwo Jima island by Thursday while increasigly likely […]

Models are confirming an extremely warm airmass spreading and maintaining across a large part of east-central Europe and the Balkan peninsula this week, both low- and mid-levels will experience 10-15 °C warmer airmass than normally for this period. Temperatures will locally climb towards the 30 °C! Let’s see some day-to-day details regarding the pattern evolution […]

As more or less expected, typhoon Bualoi continued its gradual strengthening during the 24 hours, but it is now beginning its rapid intensification phase. It continues towards the northern Mariana islands and should pass north of the island Saipan later today. A direct hit of Japan’s Iwo Jima islands seems increasingly likely on Thursday, Oct […]

Yet another typhoon, Bualoi, has formed in the western Pacific and is heading towards Mariana islands first, then gradually turning its curvature north towards Japan. Bualoi is traveling across the unusually warm waters east of Guam right now and is gaining organization and strength. The future track will bring the typhoon towards Japan, which however […]

There are many global factors and influences that drive our climate and the weather that we feel. A lot of these “drivers” come from the oceans around the world. One such driver (or index) is the Indian Ocean Dipole, also know as the IOD. As the name already suggests, this index can be found in […]

The current unusually warm pattern for mid-October is far from finished. The blocking ridge over east-central Europe should intensify and bring another week of extremely warm days for late October, with afternoon temperatures locally climbing into 26-29 °C range! Monday, Oct 21st The upper ridge across the eastern half of Europe and expands into the […]

The first serious autumn pattern is establishing over the Alps this weekend as major rainfall event is expected. Locally, more than 300-400 mm seems increasingly likely until Monday evening. This is a textbook pattern for an intense and excessive rainfall with huge amounts of rainfall over the Alps. The overall pattern has established a strong […]

Nitrogen from agricultural production is a major cause of pollution in the Mississippi River Basin and contributes to large dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico. Illinois and other Midwestern states have set goals to reduce nitrogen load through strategies that include different land management practices. A new study uses computer modeling to estimate how those practices may be affected by potential changes in the climate, such as increased rainfall.

Two weeks ago, we wrote about the latest long range model forecasts, and what they show for the upcoming winter 2019/2020. While we wait for the latest October model updates, we will take a more statistical approach to seasonal forecasting. Statistical forecasting is exactly what it sounds like. We analyze the global climate data, and […]

A powerful Nor’easter cyclone is developing along the northeast coast of the US. It will peak in strength early on Thursday local time, bringing a severe windstorm, major waves and large amounts of rainfall to New England region! As of 18h UTC the deepening surface low was located on the border of Virginia and Delaware […]

In 2018, vast amounts of snow were spread across most of the Arctic region and did not melt fully until late summer, if at all. Researchers documented the consequences of this extreme weather event at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland by extensively monitoring all components of the local ecosystem for more than 20 years, allowing them to compare life in the extreme year of 2018 to other, more 'normal,' years.

Farmers in Colombia's maize-growing region of Córdoba had seen it all: too much rain one year, a searing drought the next. Yields were down and their livelihoods hung in the balance. To better deal with climate stress, farmers in Colombia's maize-growing region of Córdoba needed information services that would help them decide what varieties to plant, when they should sow and how they should manage their crops.

A very powerful Nor’easter cyclone will explosively develop along the eastern coast of the US on Thursday. Winds gusting above 80-90 mph, torrential rainfall and severe easterly winds that will produce intense waves and coastal flooding are expected on the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. The nor’easter will rapidly deepen early on Thursday […]