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Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large upper ridge dominates most of Europe while a deep upper low is located over S Iberia and Morocco. A large upper low over Turkey and the Middle East merges with a new trough coming from the north. Another deep trough with a deep cyclone moves north just W of Iceland. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for SE Spain with threat for excessive rainfall. A persisting advection of very moist airmass along the convergence zone should result in intense rainfall with sums above 100 mm locally. Flash floods are possible. MRGL risk has been issued for NE France, NW Switzerland into SW Germany with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A strong ridge dominates much of Europe while an upper low is moving across SW Iberia. Deep trough moves across N Atlantic towards Greenland. Another upper low remains over Turkey, the E Mediterranean and the Middle East. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for southern Spain with threat for severe storms, capable of producing marginal hail, severe winds and torrential / excessive rainfall. Despite the majority of instability staying further west, some threat for organized storms remains in moderately strong shear near the front moving through during the day. MRGL risk has been issued for Portugal and SSW Spain with threat for isolated severe storms under the strong cold core low, capable of producing mainly […]

VALID FOR 17-04-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A powerful upper ridge still dominates the northern half of Europe while ridge builds up over the Mediterranean as well. Deep upper low with frontal system enters the Iberian peninsula from the west. A broad upper low continues east across the Middle East. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for E / N Portugal into west-central Spain with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. An organized line of storms is possible to develop along the eastwards moving cold front in the evening hours across the SE parts of the risk area. MRGL risk has been issued for SE Turkey into N Cyprus with threat […]

On March 17, 2002, the satellite duo GRACE was launched to map the Earth's gravity field more precisely than ever before. The measurements make it possible to monitor the terrestrial water cycle, the mass balance of ice sheets and glaciers or changes in sea levels. This helps to better understand important trends in the global climate system.

Hurricane Maria dropped more rain on Puerto Rico than any storm to hit the island since 1956, a feat due mostly to the effects of human-caused climate warming, new research finds.

When it comes to understanding future climate, the south Asian summer monsoon offers a paradox. Most climate models predict that as human-caused global warming increases, monsoon rain and wind will become more intense -- but weather data collected in the region shows that rainfall has actually declined over the past 50 years.

VALID FOR 16-04-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A strong upper ridge persists across the Arctic region and N Europe while upper low moves from the E Mediterranean into the Middle East. A deep trough / low is approaching the Iberian peninsula from the Atlantic while another low move north near Iceland with an intense surface cyclone. DISCUSSION MDT risk has been issued for central and SSW Iceland with threat for extremely severe winds, locally in excess of 130 km/h. Peak gusts are expected across the higher terrain and could easily exceed 160-180 km/h! ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for areas surrounding the MDT risk across W/S Iceland with threat for severe to extremely severe, locally exceeding 110-120 […]

In the future, weather forecasts that provide storm warnings and help us plan our daily lives could come up to five days sooner before reaching the limits of numerical weather prediction, scientists said.

A new study concludes that exposure to extreme heat and precipitation in prenatal and early childhood years in countries of the global tropics could make it harder for children to attain secondary school education, even for better-off households.

The North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH), a region of reduced warming located in the North Atlantic Ocean, significantly affects the North Atlantic jet stream in climate simulations of the future.

VALID FOR 15-04-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A strong upper ridge is centered over N Europe with a very deep trough over the N Atlantic, ejecting a short-wave towards the British Isles and Ireland. An upper low over the S Mediterranean is finally weakening while drifting east. At surface, a deep cyclone moves north along the W Irish coast. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for W-CNTRL Ireland and areas towards west with threat for severe winds in excess of 100-110 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the ENH risk including the rest of Ireland and the Northern Ireland with threat for severe winds in excess of 90 km/h. SLGT risk hs been issued for NE […]

VALID FOR 13-04-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A powerful upper ridge and high pressure system dominate Arctic region and N Europe, with deep trough / cyclone over the N Atlantic. An upper low crosses the Alps and merges with a large upper low over the Mediterranean. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for S Iceland with threat for severe to extremely severe winds, locally in excess of 120 km/h. Higher gusts (above 150 km/h) are likely over the mountains. Additional risk will be an excessive orographic rainfall in SE Iceland, locally more than 100-120 mm is possible. ENH risk has been issued for parts of N Atlantic near the center of deep cyclone, peak gusts should exceed 130 km/h. […]

VALID FOR 13-04-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A very deep trough with an intense cyclone is located over the Atlantic, SW of Iceland and moving north. A strong ridge dominates the Arctic region and Scandinavia. A large but shallow upper low is centered over the S Mediterranean while another low move across SW Russia. Another upper low move across Germany and Benelux towards the west. DISCUSSION MDT risk has been issued for SW and central Iceland with threat for extremely severe winds, locally in excess of 120-130 km/h. MDT risk has been issued for parts of N Atlantic with threat for extremely severe winds in excess of 140 km/h around the deep cyclone’s center. Rapid cyclogenesis could also develop […]

When heavy rain falls over the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia and the eastern Pacific Ocean, it is a good indicator that temperatures in central California will reach 100°F in four to 16 days.

Here comes the first meteor shower of the spring: the Lyrids. This moderate meteor shower brings a nice celestial display to the spring night skies. Here is what the Lyrids are and when and how to see them. The Lyrids are crumbs of comet C/1861 G1 (Thatcher). It is a lump of icy dirt that completes one As it rounds the Sun, the ices within the comet sublimate and release trapped clumps of mineral grains. As these particles, now called meteoroids, spread along the comet’s orbit, a meteoroid stream forms. When the Earth passes through a meteoroid stream, numerous meteoroids impact our atmospheres, producing flashes of light – meteors. Thus a meteor shower forms. It gets its name from the […]

VALID FOR 12-04-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS An upper ridge remains over the Arctic region while a deep trough with intense surface cyclone moves across N Atlantic and nears Iceland and Greenland. Large but shallow upper low remains over the southern Mediterranean while another upper low move from S Scandinavia towards W Europe. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for SW and central Iceland with threat for extremely severe winds, locally in excess of 120-130 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding areas of MDT / ENH risks including parts of W and S Iceland and into N Atlantic with threat for severe winds, locally in excess of 90-100 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for […]

Researchers used both linear stability theory and direct numerical simulations to uncover, for the first time, fluid instabilities in the Prandtl model for katabatic slope flows. Not only will this discovery be important for agriculture, aviation and weather prediction, but it will also be vital for climate change research and associated sea-level rise, as accurate prediction of katabatic surface wind profiles over large ice sheets and glaciers is critical in energy balance of melting ice.

New research shows that the Larsen C ice shelf -- the fourth largest ice shelf in Antarctica -- experienced an unusual spike in late summer and early autumn surface melting in the years 2015 to 2017. The study, spanning 35 years from 1982 to 2017, quantifies how much of this additional melting is due to warm, dry air currents called foehn winds that originate high in the peninsula's central mountain range.

VALID FOR 11-04-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A strong upper ridge with strengthening high pressure system dominates the Arctic region and N Atlantic while two upper lows are further south. One low is centered over the Baltic region with surface front extending towards the E Balkan peninsula, is a focus of interest for convective weather. Another larger upper low sits over the west-central Mediterranean and brings another day of widespread convective activity for much of southern Europe. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for parts of S Italy, Ionian sea into S Albania and WSW Greece with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall and marginal hail. Good overlap of 500-700 J/kg of […]

While central plains of the United States are enjoying a hot day today (up to +35 °C down in Texas and SW Oklahoma and up to +30 °C in SW Kansas), there is an extremely intense Arctic outbreak expected tonight and tomorrow. A sharp cold front will bring more than 30 °C colder temperatures and snow blizzard in only 12-18 hours period through the High Plains and western Central Plains. It’s already snowing in NE Colorado, Wyoming and W Nebraska today! A deep trough will rapidly push across the central United States, resulting in a textbook intense frontogenesis developing in the lee side of the Rockies over E Colorado and Kansas later today and tonight. A very deep surface cyclone […]