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With supercells being reported left and right – what are the most typical and telltale signs a storm may be a supercell? Not every severe thunderstorm is a supercell, and not every supercell is a severe thunderstorm. Many thunderstorms with impressive visual structure are reported as supercells, but may be of other type – such as multicells and squall lines. A significant fraction of supercell thunderstorms are severe, producing large to giant hail, extreme torrential rainfall, severe straight line winds and tornadoes. Supercells form in strongly sheared environments with favourable vertical wind profiles and are the least common type of thunderstorms. Locally, favourable regional terrain configurations and mesoscale meteorological factors may favour supercell formation. Supercells are highly organized thunderstorms. They […]

Heavy wildfires across the Amazon area, are a true ecological disaster, with heavy destruction of a very rich natural ecosystem. Wildfires in this region occur every year, as the region enters its dry season. A lot of the wildfires are started artificially by locals, with the intention to burn down the forests to create open land for agriculture. This year the wildfires are very large and spread enough for smoke to be seen from space. Below are two images from the NASA MODIS satellite imagery showing the large scale wildfires and smoke. The fires produce so much smoke (and carbon monoxide – CO) that it can be traced as it circles the south hemisphere. The graphic below is an analysis […]

Do climate shifts influence tornados over North America? New research found that Pacific and Atlantic ocean temperatures in April can influence large-scale weather patterns as well as the frequency of tornadoes over the Great Plains region.

A researcher has developed an advanced technique for forecasting dusty conditions months before they occur, promising transportation managers, climatologists and people suffering health issues much more time to prepare for dusty conditions.

Explanations for abbreviations (TSTM, SLGT, ENH, etc.) SYNOPSIS An upper ridge is strengthening over much of Europe with several features of interest regarding the potential for severe weather. One upper low crosses the Iberian peninsula, while another one is rotating over Turkey and the Black Sea. A large and deep low with surface cylcone travels aross the N Atlantic towards NE while another short-wave brings another day of storms over Scandinavia. DISCUSSION ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for ENE turkey into W Georgia and the SE Black Sea with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential / excessive rainfall. Rather widespread activity is expected under an upper low with slow-moving storms […]

Researchers who rush in after storms to study the behavior of spiders have found that extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones may have an evolutionary impact on populations living in storm-prone regions, where aggressive spiders have the best odds of survival.

More red sprites were recorded above storms over central Europe in the night of August 18/19th, further increasing the tally of the already very fruitful season 2019. Lightning over Europe on August 18-20th. Map: Blitzortung.org. The prolific TLE observer Martin Popek reports further detection of red sprites above storms over Germany and Poland in the late evening of August 18th. Red sprites in the evening hours of August 18th above storms in central Europe. A meteor was also captured in the same field of view. Images: Martin Popek. Also see: Large numbers of red sprites in the skies over Europe this summer Sprites, blue jets, gigantic jets, elves – Upper Atmosphere Lightning

Explanations for abbreviations (TSTM, SLGT, ENH, etc.) SYNOPSIS A large long-wave trough is dominating WSW Europe while ridging persists across east, south and central Europe. In between, a surface frontal zone extends from NE Iberia across the Alps into the Baltic countries. An upper low remains over Turkey. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for ENE Spain with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential / excessive rainfall. Northern parts of the SLGT will see excessive rainfall threat due to the night / early morning activity while additional isolated organized storms including supercells are expected to develop by mid/late-afternoon over SE parts as rapid moisture recovery takes place from the Mediterranean and moderately strong […]

The same artificial intelligence technique typically used in facial recognition systems could help improve prediction of hailstorms and their severity, according to a new study.

Explanations for abbreviations (TSTM, SLGT, ENH, etc.) SYNOPSIS A large long-wave trough is dominating WSW Europe while ridging persists across east, south and central Europe. In between, a surface frontal zone extends from NE Iberia across the Alps into the Baltic countries. An upper low remains over Turkey. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for NE Spain across S France, Switzerland into S Germany and Austria with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Isolated to scattered organized storms including supercells are expected to develop by mid/late-afternoon and spread northeast towards the evening hours within moderate sheared and unstable airmass. Storms will cluster into a MCS or two over the Alps through the […]

Past summer months have been abnormally warm across the Arctic circle, which caused rapid ice melt, and record low sea ice extent in late July and into early August. Only 15-18th July period was not record low, and was just behind the 2011 values (not shown on the graph below). The absolute minimum is usually in September. The graphic below from NSIDC (National Snow & Ice Data Center) shows 2019 versus 2012, which had the lowest absolute sea ice extent on record in September 2012. Currently, despite having record low days for specific periods, 2019 is not projected to finish lower than 2012, but is projected to be close. But forecasts can change in the coming weeks. The current daily […]

Major torrential rainfall hit Istanbul, Turkey yesterday, producing widespread damaging flooding. A number of weather stations across Istanbul and vicinity reported rainfall totals in excess of 30 mm, with the Faith station reporting 115 mm total rainfall by mid-day (GMT).

Explanations for abbreviations (TSTM, SLGT, ENH, etc.) SYNOPSIS A large trough with deep core and surface cyclone remains over the W Europe with an associated cold front pushed towards the Alps. Ridge persists over south-central Europe and the Balkans while a weakening upper low continues east across the Black Sea and E Turkey. DISCUSSION ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for NE Spain across S France, Switzerland into S-CNTRL Germany and W Czechia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Isolated to scattered organized storms including supercells are expected to develop by mid-afternoon and spread northeast towards the evening hours within strongly sheared and moderately unstable airmass, as rapidly recovering near-surface […]

A very bright meteor appeared in the skies over the western-central Mediterranean yesterday evening, August 16th at around 22:43 CEST. Videos indicate a very significant event. The fireball was likely significantly brighter than the full Moon, indicating a sizeable incoming meteoroid. It was a long-duration event, lasting over 4 seconds. The meteor reached peak brightness in a series of bright flares, which appear to have resulted in fragmentation of the meteoroid – several fragments are visible towards the end of the luminous path. It appears likely that the incoming meteoroid was comparatively slow and that the event may have resulted in a meteorite fall – into the Mediterranean sea. Did you see it? Let us know!

Have you noticed the huge number of reported red sprites in the skies over Europe lately? What are they? How are they detected? Is this normal? Thunderstorms are electrically charged weather systems, and we are quite used to typical electrical discharges from storms – lightning. Lightning that we are most familiar with goes from the cloud to the ground, called cloud-to-ground lightning. However, thunderstorms discharge also upwards, above the storm. This is not typical lightning, but phenomena sometimes called upper atmosphere lightning and more appropriately transient luminous events. There is an entire zoo of transient luminous events caused by electrical discharges from thunderstorms. Of these, red sprites are by far the most common. Red sprites happen when the parent thunderstorm […]

A deep low is pushing over the Atlantic near the British Isles and Ireland today. It will produce a severe windstorm with winds gusting up to 120-130 km/h over the open sea. Strong gales are expected in parts of Ireland and Scotland. Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 17/08/2019) The low will deepen to about 975 mbar central pressure by midday on Saturday, slowly filling in the afternoon to about 980 mbar as it grazes NW Scotland in the early morning on Saturday. It will produce severe winds gusting into 120-130 km/h range NW of Ireland. Peak winds will remain over the open sea, coastal areas of north and northwest Ireland and parts of west and north Scotland will receive strong gales […]

Explanations for abbreviations (TSTM, SLGT, ENH, etc.) SYNOPSIS A deep trough with a large surface cyclone continues over W Europe towards the Norwegian sea while ridge builds up over central Europe. A weakening upper low with a short-wave moves across the Black Sea region. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for SE Iceland into the N Atlantic, NW Ireland, Northern Ireland and W Scotland threat for severe to extremely severe non-convective winds with gusts in excess of 100-120 km/h locally. Windstorm is associated with the deep cyclone moving towards NE just north of UK. Peak gusts in excess of 120 km/h are expected to remain over the open waters of N Atlantic. SLGT / MRGL risks […]

Explanations for abbreviations (TSTM, SLGT, ENH, etc.) SYNOPSIS A large but shallow upper low is moving across the E Europe while ridging is expanding from SW Europe into central Europe. A deep trough with surface cyclone pushes from N Atlantic into the western Europe and UK. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for coastal Ireland, Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, Wales and SW England with threat for severe non-convective winds with gusts in excess of 90 km/h locally. Windstorm is associated with the deep cyclone moving NE further north. Isolated storms seems possible across Wales and N England in the afternoon as well. ENH / SLGT risk have been issued for S Iceland into the N Atlantic with threat for severe […]

Warmer winters are starting to alter the structure of the Black Sea, which could foreshadow how ocean compositions might shift from future climate change, according to new research.

Operational models for severe weather forecasting predicted Hurricane Harvey would become a Category 1 hurricane in 2017. Instead, it became a massive Category 4 just before it made landfall, tying Hurricane Katrina for the costliest hurricane on record.