Severe Weather Europe
The town of Nazaré, Portugal (around 100 km north of the capital Lisbon) is a well-known place to experience major or ever extreme sea waves from the Atlantic ocean. This week, high swell resulting from a powerful cyclone over North Atlantic brought high waves across the Bay of Biscay which also spread along the Iberian […]
The post Monster 15+ meter waves in Nazaré, Portugal on Nov 20th! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*UPDATE* on the better organizing Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN in the western Atlantic, heads towards the Azores first and then towards W Europe
Tropical Storm Sebastien has been maintaining storm-force winds today with the latest 12 UTC analysis having it at 50 knots of maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 999 mbar. The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) analysis is, however, holding it at 998 mbar and around 40 knots, but this is likely going to change […]
An intense cyclone travels across the southern Bay of Biscay and brings a powerful windstorm along the northern Iberia through Friday and early Saturday, Nov 22-23rd
Associated with the large trough, a deep cyclone takes place over the Bay of Biscay this Friday and delivers an intense windstorm into parts of SW Europe. Peak gusts are likely to reach an extremely severe threshold, peaking above 120 km/h in some areas. Excessive rainfall is also expected across western Iberia due to strong […]
The post An intense cyclone travels across the southern Bay of Biscay and brings a powerful windstorm along the northern Iberia through Friday and early Saturday, Nov 22-23rd appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 20/Nov* A powerful warming phase now to begin in 10 days! Temperature in the stratosphere over Siberia will rise for 40°C in a few days!
A strong new warming phase is getting closer, and is set to begin in 10 days! The final power and the later effects are still under discussion. So far, the weather model calculations were good. The polar vortex is currently under pressure from a medium power wave-2 pattern. This “attack” pattern will slowly weaken, making […]
The post *Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 20/Nov* A powerful warming phase now to begin in 10 days! Temperature in the stratosphere over Siberia will rise for 40°C in a few days! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
The eastern Mediterranean sea remains very warm while the western parts are much colder than normal for late November
Warm sea surface temperatures are usually the main source / fuel for the storm systems which could potentially bring excessive rainfall events, intense cyclones or even medicanes. As of late November 2019, the temperature of the Mediterranean sea is divided into two halves. The western parts is quite cold while the eastern parts are much […]
Tropical Storm #SEBASTIEN develops north of the Lesser Antilles, heads towards North Atlantic or even WSW Europe early next week
The Atlantic hurricane season is not yet over as a new tropical system has formed in the western Atlantic – a Tropical storm Sebastien. The system is now north of Lesser Antilles and is gradually organizing with the potential of becoming a Category 1 hurricane on Friday. Sebastien is a highly asymmetric tropical storm and […]
Much warmer weather returns into a large part of Europe this weekend and early next week, Nov 22-26th
The current rainy autumn pattern across the S, SW and central Europe is coming to an end soon, as large persisting upper-level trough over WSW Europe and the Mediterranean is expected to collapse this weekend and cut off into the S Mediterranean. This means the persisting strong SW flow from the Mediterranean towards the Alps […]
More than two weeks of heavy rainfall leads into significant flooding across the Planina plain, Slovenia
Planina Plain is the lowest-lying Karst plain in the Notranjska lowlands, located in western Slovenia. Planina Plain floods several times a year, turning into a lake after a longer period of excessive rainfall events. The main river across the Plain is river Unica, which meanders through the plain from west to east. This week, Planina […]
A cold front is moving across south Adriatic and Ionian sea tonight, the severe threat continues overnight, Nov 19/20th
Severe storms are expected along the frontal boundary, entering SW Balkans from the Ionian and Adriatic sea tonight. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall with flash floods and even a tornado or two are possible! A cold front associated with an upper short-wave trough ejected off S Italy and is now moving into the Adriatic and Ionian […]
*Winter 2019/2020* FINAL November model forecast for the upcoming winter! Summary: Polar vortex collapse might be the make or break factor for many this winter!
November model calculations are done, and they are usually regarded as the final forecast for winter. December is already a winter month, so November forecasts will determine long-range model winners and losers when we will look back in spring. Don’t miss our model forecast article from October, where you can compare the past forecasts with […]
The post *Winter 2019/2020* FINAL November model forecast for the upcoming winter! Summary: Polar vortex collapse might be the make or break factor for many this winter! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
High swell has developed over the North Atlantic and is spreading towards the British Isles and Ireland
A rapidly developing deep cyclone over the Labrador Sea and south of Greenland. Hurricane-force winds have introduced a violent windstorm, resulting in significant wave height in excess of 18 meters as it has been analyzed by NOAA OPC forecasters. Although the cyclone is now weakening, its core remains very large. The result is a large […]
The decaying stage of a large deep trough over SW Europe, which resulted in persisting rainy pattern over the northern Mediterranean will bring additional rainfall into north Italy and indeed more snow in part of the Alps. Locally more than 200 mm if rainfall in again possible through Wednesday morning, Nov 20th. The 500 mbar […]
The post Another round of excessive and locally intense rainfall through the next 48 hours, Nov 19-20th appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*UPDATE* on the monster large cyclone in the North Atlantic – sting-jet produces hurricane-force winds and 18+ meter waves, Nov 18th
As discussed yesterday, a very deep trough ejected from the Arctic region into the Labrador Sea, developing an intense bomb surface cyclone. Satellite imagery was very impressive while today even more remarkable satellite presentation is visible on all satellite channels. Cyclone is now beginning its gradual weakening trend, but remain a very powerful and large […]
*Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 18/Nov* A powerful new warming phase is coming in early December! Calculations now start showing a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event! 3D animation added!
New model calculations are done, and they still show the powerful new warming phase coming in early December. Each new model calculation increases the likelihood of the strong warming phase realizing. In the past days, we wrote updates on the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, and the likely collapse in December. Currently, the polar […]
The post *Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 18/Nov* A powerful new warming phase is coming in early December! Calculations now start showing a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event! 3D animation added! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
A large monster cyclone moving across the North Atlantic will continue towards western Europe through mid-week
Yet another very large and intense cyclone has developed over the Labrador Sea this weekend and is moving south of Greenland. The cyclone’s core has several smaller cyclones embedded. Central pressure within these several cores has dropped to 960-970 mbar. Cyclone begins its weakening trend tonight and continues towards the western Europe in the coming […]
A strong tornado hit the town of Polverosa di Orbetello (Grosseto), Italy this afternoon. Severe storms were associated with the cold front passage. Video and photo imagery of the damage suggests the damage is quite significant, likely at least F2. A couple of videos of significant damage in Polverosa – strongly damaged roofs, snapped trees, […]
The post A significant damage from a strong tornado near Grosseto, Italy today, Nov 17th appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*Stratosphere warming watch* A powerful new warming phase is building for early December. Stratospheric temperatures likely to raise over 30°C above normal, affecting the already weakened vortex!
The polar vortex is slowly but steadily losing its power. While the pressure waves are “attacking” the polar vortex, a new temperature wave is building for early December, that should prolong the weakening of the vortex, and perhaps push it even further beyond the point of return for a while, later in December. In the […]
The post *Stratosphere warming watch* A powerful new warming phase is building for early December. Stratospheric temperatures likely to raise over 30°C above normal, affecting the already weakened vortex! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
Pattern over Europe this weekend indicates a large upper trough / low over the Mediterranean, central and WSW Europe. With a powerful upper-ridge dominating E Europe and W Russia. A strong southerly winds / jet stream is placed in between these large-scale systems. Marginal to locally moderate instability should be available across the warm sector […]
The post Dangerous severe weather threat spreads into NW Balkans and NE Italy this afternoon, Nov 17h appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*Earthquake watch* An intense earthquake swarm occurred at Reykjanes Ridge, Iceland! Over 200 earthquakes in just 9 hours. An eruption next week would send ash towards Europe!
Iceland is on a roll! While Askja volcano still continues its own earthquake swarm, a strong burst of earthquakes occurred on the Reykjanes Ridge, just of the SW coast of Iceland. Iceland already has a lot of activity, especially at Askja volcano, where more than 1300 earthquakes occurred in just over a week. Today, on […]
The post *Earthquake watch* An intense earthquake swarm occurred at Reykjanes Ridge, Iceland! Over 200 earthquakes in just 9 hours. An eruption next week would send ash towards Europe! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
A new “bomb” tropical system in W Pacific – typhoon #FENGSHEN went through a rapid intensification into a Category 3 today
We have another small but very intense tropical system that went through a rapid intensification in very short period of time – borderline strength to Super typhoon FENGSHEN. While it was still a Tropical Storm yesterday, Nov 12th 12 UTC, with 65 mph sustained winds, Fengshen rapidly intensified into an intense typhoon within the last […]
28. jaanuari ekstreemumid 2010-2020