Severe Weather Europe
An intense cyclone brings severe storms into SE USA while heavy snow blizzard develops on its wake across the Great Plains
Besides the very deep trough and a powerful cyclone along the Pacific NW coast, another deep cyclone developed further east across the central United States. A cyclone formed in the Lee of the Rockies and is expected to cross the Great Plains while deepening towards the Great Lakes. Severe weather outbreak seems likely along the […]
A powerful deep cyclone with a pronounced sting jet along the NW USA coast results in extreme snowfall in SW Oregon and Sierra Nevada (California) tonight
An impressive cyclone is moving over the Pacific this week (see the satellite below), expected to push its center into the WNW US coast tonight. An extremely deepening cyclone / bombogenesis will introduce dangerous string-jet wind maxima and major waves towards the coast, while also resulting in intense snowfall across the SW Oregon and N […]
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*FRIGID* cold spreads across northeast Russia in these days – down to -54 °C has already been reported in Verhojansk!
An intense Arctic outbreak has developed over parts of Russia lately. During the mid/late November temperatures usually already drop below -25 to -30 °C, but NE parts of Russia have now slipped even more – below -50 °C in the last days! Although such temperatures are nothing off the charts in the region, getting below […]
Breaking: A powerful magnitude 6.4 earthquake has hit Albania tonight! One of the strongest in the country’s history!
A powerful magnitude 6.4 earthquake occurred tonight, November 26th, at around 2:54 UTC time near the coastal city of Durres, Albania. The epicenter of the earthquake was around 35km NW of the capital city Tirana. The reports so far indicate many collapsed and severely damaged buildings. One person has died, by current reports, and around […]
Extra-tropical storm #SEBASTIEN continues moving NE at the acceleration rate and is now having central pressure near 980 mbar. It continues deepening and is likely to reached slightly below 970 mbar by tomorrow late morning when it touches the SW Ireland. Mean sea level pressure analysis and forecast. Graphics: Meteociel / wxcharts.com / DWD Satellite […]
The post Evening *UPDATE* on the extra-tropical cyclone (ex-SEBASTIEN) moving towards Ireland appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
A few more warm days… but then, a sharp pattern flip brings a strong cold outbreak into a large part of Europe next weekend, even snow locally!
Related to the change in the sub-polar circulation is coming this week and the long-lasting warm period across large part of Europe is finally coming to an end. First, the extra-tropical cyclone deepens and pushes into western Europe and moves towards the northern Europe. To the south of it, warm advection maintains over the rest […]
Nov 25th morning *UPDATE* on the ex-tropical storm #SEBASTIEN – expected to bring severe winds into Ireland tonight and tomorrow morning
Ex-tropical storm SEBASTIEN or its remnants have transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone overnight and are now re-organizing. Sebastien traveled to the north of Azores, the minimum central pressure at Flores airport reached 993.7 mbar at local midnight. Peak gusts at some METAR stations reached 101 km/h in Angra Do Heroismo, 94 km/h in Flores and […]
*Weekly outlook* A change in the sub-polar circulation is coming, as the tropospheric polar vortex tries to re-organize. Cold air and snow likely over Europe and the USA!
While the stratospheric polar vortex is getting ready for the strong temperature and pressure dynamics in the coming week, its tropospheric counterpart is trying to organize. A warming event is about to start in the upper levels of the stratosphere, creating a strong attack on the polar vortex, trying to disrupt its circulation and displace […]
The post *Weekly outlook* A change in the sub-polar circulation is coming, as the tropospheric polar vortex tries to re-organize. Cold air and snow likely over Europe and the USA! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*NEW UPDATE* on the significant change in SEBASTIEN’s behavior – although it was expected to dissipate, it returns with a big bang and heads to Europe
The Tropical Storm #SEBASTIEN wants to make us silly – while it is now undergoing an extra-tropical transition, it is not expected to dissipate but intensify again in the coming days! This means the threat to western Europe has returned. This system must be one of the most tricky storms to forecast this year; it […]
The post *NEW UPDATE* on the significant change in SEBASTIEN’s behavior – although it was expected to dissipate, it returns with a big bang and heads to Europe appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
Explanations for abbreviations (TSTM, SLGT, ENH, etc.) SYNOPSIS The overall pattern across Europe reveals a very large upper trough / low with a broad surface low moving from the Bay of Biscay into France and the western Mediterranean, while a strong upper-level ridge persists across eastern Europe and western Russia. A powerful jet stream rounds […]
*Polar watch* An ozone hole (mini) has formed over the North pole and Scandinavia! Ozone levels have dropped to over 50 Dobson units below normal.
The ozone hole that we usually talk about, can be found over the South pole. There, ozone is being destroyed in a man-powered chemical process every year. But, the North pole also has its own smaller version, called a “mini” ozone hole! In case you are not familiar with this process, we encourage you to […]
Tropical Storm #SEBASTIEN changed his minds – already accelerating and weakening, expected to dissipate on Monday and will not be a threat for Europe anymore
Although forecasts during the previous days were expecting the Tropical Storm #Sebastien to strengthen into a hurricane today, strong wind shear is gradually causing more significant weakening effect on the tropical system. Based on satellite data and 18 UTC analysis, storm still had a solid storm-force strength and packing winds of 50 knots with a […]
The post Tropical Storm #SEBASTIEN changed his minds – already accelerating and weakening, expected to dissipate on Monday and will not be a threat for Europe anymore appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
As mentioned in the previous discussion on a developing warmer pattern earlier this week, a very strong warm advection and warmth develop over central Europe this weekend. While there will be extreme rainfall and major snowfall ongoing over the western Alps, the northern side of the Alps will be experiencing a very warm weekend due […]
*MAJOR snowfall event* with dangerous avalanche threat will develop over the NW Italian Alps this weekend – locally more than 150 cm of fresh snow is likely
Related to the extreme rainfall event across the SE France and western Alps this weekend, intense snowfall will be ongoing over the higher mountains across NW Italy (W Alps). Models are hinting up to more than 150 cm of fresh snow until Sunday morning, so an extreme amount of snow in just 36 hours. Such […]
The post *MAJOR snowfall event* with dangerous avalanche threat will develop over the NW Italian Alps this weekend – locally more than 150 cm of fresh snow is likely appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
An extreme amount of rainfall should significantly enhance flooding threat across SE France and NW Italy this weekend, Nov 22-24th
A large cyclone that produced an intense windstorm across the Bay of Biscay today is becoming larger in size while moving into France. Strong southerlies will deliver huge amounts of very moist and unusually warm air mass from the Mediterranean northwards into the threat area. Forecast models are in very good agreement an extreme amount […]
The town of Nazaré, Portugal (around 100 km north of the capital Lisbon) is a well-known place to experience major or ever extreme sea waves from the Atlantic ocean. This week, high swell resulting from a powerful cyclone over North Atlantic brought high waves across the Bay of Biscay which also spread along the Iberian […]
The post Monster 15+ meter waves in Nazaré, Portugal on Nov 20th! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*UPDATE* on the better organizing Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN in the western Atlantic, heads towards the Azores first and then towards W Europe
Tropical Storm Sebastien has been maintaining storm-force winds today with the latest 12 UTC analysis having it at 50 knots of maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 999 mbar. The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) analysis is, however, holding it at 998 mbar and around 40 knots, but this is likely going to change […]
An intense cyclone travels across the southern Bay of Biscay and brings a powerful windstorm along the northern Iberia through Friday and early Saturday, Nov 22-23rd
Associated with the large trough, a deep cyclone takes place over the Bay of Biscay this Friday and delivers an intense windstorm into parts of SW Europe. Peak gusts are likely to reach an extremely severe threshold, peaking above 120 km/h in some areas. Excessive rainfall is also expected across western Iberia due to strong […]
The post An intense cyclone travels across the southern Bay of Biscay and brings a powerful windstorm along the northern Iberia through Friday and early Saturday, Nov 22-23rd appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
*Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 20/Nov* A powerful warming phase now to begin in 10 days! Temperature in the stratosphere over Siberia will rise for 40°C in a few days!
A strong new warming phase is getting closer, and is set to begin in 10 days! The final power and the later effects are still under discussion. So far, the weather model calculations were good. The polar vortex is currently under pressure from a medium power wave-2 pattern. This “attack” pattern will slowly weaken, making […]
The post *Stratosphere warming watch UPDATE 20/Nov* A powerful warming phase now to begin in 10 days! Temperature in the stratosphere over Siberia will rise for 40°C in a few days! appeared first on Severe Weather Europe.
The eastern Mediterranean sea remains very warm while the western parts are much colder than normal for late November
Warm sea surface temperatures are usually the main source / fuel for the storm systems which could potentially bring excessive rainfall events, intense cyclones or even medicanes. As of late November 2019, the temperature of the Mediterranean sea is divided into two halves. The western parts is quite cold while the eastern parts are much […]
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