Severe Weather Europe

Mangkhut remains an extremely powerful typhoon as it continues moving WNW towards the northern tip of Luzon island, Philippines. It packs sustained winds of 165-170 mph (265-274 km/h) with central pressure around 900 mbar. Mangkhut’s landfall is expected early on Saturday (Sept 15th) morning local time. An exceptional Himawari-8 satellite presentation of Category 5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut during the sunset time over Philippines. These are the likely forecast tracks per various model runs, a direct hit/landfall in the northern tip of Luzon is expected. Typhoons of such intensity usually tend to wobble just prior to landfall so the exact future track is very hard to forecast. However, when Category 5 storms are concerned, a shift in track 50 km up/down […]

The now CAT 1 hurricane Florence is brushing the coastal areas of North Carolina now, resulting in major storm surge combined with very intense rainfall and flash floods. Numerous areas along the coast have already been flooded. Florence is moving very slowly towards west now, so these extreme weather conditions are expected to prevail through much of the night and morning hours local time. Radar and satellite analysis is revealing a still impressive structure of the inner eyewall, positioned about 30-40 miles off the coast SE of Wilmington, Carolina. This puts the coastal areas in greater danger as the almost complete and closed eyewall is being maintained over the warm waters and releasing its power ashore. Water vapour satellite image […]

Mid-range model trends are confirming a new heat wave across Europe next: temperatures will likely be 8-10 °C higher than average for mid to late-September in central, western, eastern and southeastern Europe. This means temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s again! The heat wave comes as a response to a pattern change across much of Europe: a strong ridge develops over much of the continent, with deep troughs and lows – including the expected post-tropical storm Helen – forcing warm air advection ahead of them, a Spanish Plume setup over western Europe and a strong ridge elsewhere. Models agree on very high temperature anomaly: daytime highs will likely pushing as far as 30 °C as far north as […]

Super Typhoon Mangkhut has remained a powerful Category 5 system throughout the day today. It lost a slight bit of power in the first half of the day, as it went through an eyewall replacement cycle, but is now gaining strength again. Even as it weakened slightly, it never went below CAT5 strength. Mangkhut is on track to produce absolute devastation as it makes landfall on Luzon on Saturday! The Super Typhoon went through an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eye collapsing and being replaced by a stable, larger-diameter outer eye. As this happened the typhoon weakened, with peak winds decreasing from 180 mph (290 km/h) late on September 12 to 165 mph (265 km/h) by mid-day on September […]

“Indian summer” anyone? Models are confirming a likely intense early autumn heat wave to develop across much of Europe next week. In response to a changing pattern, strong warm advection will spread across central and northern Europe and bring 4-5 days of very warm to hot days. Deep troughs will be ongoing across the N Atlantic and a powerful upper ridge will develop to its east and dominate Europe. This will develop a heat wave after Tuesday, Sept 18th. The extreme warmth starts on Tuesday in response to a deep trough over the Atlantic and a push of strong warm advection onto western Europe, ahead of a post-tropical storm nearing British Isles and Ireland. A very warm day is expected […]

Hurricane Florence has been maintaining a solid strong CAT 2 strength through all day. However, the last few hours satellite and radar data are revealing a gradual strengthening of the system: the inner eyewall has closed and it appears likely the hurricane is intensifying again! Latest NOAA Hurricane Hunters mission through the eye is confirming the satellite/radar analysis with pressure now at around 952 mbar (officially NHC put it to 955 mbar previously) and sustained winds of 90 knots. Florence has slowed down and is moving towards NW, nearing the landfall in North Carolina coast tonight. Latest radar imagery is revealing an impressive structure of the inner and also outer eyewall. Notice the inner eyewall has almost completely closed up. […]

The powerful Category 5 super typhoon Mangkhut has been showing an impressive satellite presentation throughout the day today, with some visible fluctuations in its intensity. It remained at the maximum strength and only slightly lower winds were observed: it is now packing 165 mph (265 km/h) winds with gusts up to 200 mph (322 km/h). Estimated central pressure is 907 mbar. While hurricanes are analyzed with satellites and also NOAA airplanes for data sampling, typhoons are monitored with satellites only. Mangkhut continues showing a very symmetric structure and is a very large system. The eyewall is closed and deep convection is ongoing. Basically there are no obvious signs Mangkhut is going to weaken significantly in the next 2 days prior […]

Hurricane Helene is becoming better organized today, based on satellite imagery. It has sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) with a central pressure around 986 mbar. Its track will lead it towards the Azores this weekend and then likely towards the British Isles and Ireland on Tuesday next week. Models are suggesting it will remain a very powerful post-tropical storm once it approaches western Europe. Infrared satellite scans this afternoon are revealing a large eye surrounded by convective bands which suggests the storm remains a healthy CAT 1 hurricane and is expected to maintain this strength until it passes Azores on Sunday morning. Here is latest model guidance for Helene on Monday, Sept 17th when it will already acting […]

Hurricane Florence has lost some of its strength and is now a solid strong CAT 2 hurricane, but it remains a very large storm. Due to significant interaction with some shear to its south, Florence outflow was disturbed and caused it to weaken further since last night. As landfall is still 18 hours away, it could re-strengthen back to CAT 3 given the more favorable conditions along its path towards North Carolina today. Morning satellite reveals still an impressive structure and ideal outflow ventilation on the northern side of Florence, while wind shear effect is evident on its southern side combined with the dry intrusion. However, very intense convection with colder cloud tops has lately appeared along the eyewall again. […]

Mid-range model trends are pushing for a new heat wave across Europe: temperatures may be 8-10 °C higher than average for mid to late-September in central, western, eastern and southeastern Europe. This means temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s again! Such a high temperature anomaly would mean actual daytime highs pushing as far as 30 °C as far north as northern Germany and parts of Benelux. Further south, in France, Italy and the Pannonian basin, including parts of Hungary, Croatia and Serbia, temperatures would push higher than 30 °C! Both GFS and ECMWF models agree, with the latter pushing for even warmer weather. All maps: Wxcharts.eu

Unseasonally hot weather continues across much of southern and central Europe. Yesterday, temperatures reached into upper 20s to low 30s (!!) as far north as eastern Germany and central Poland! We take a closer look. The weather pattern for unseasonally warm weather across large parts of Europe continued yesterday. Temperatures in large parts of Europe were 4-8 °C warmer than average for mid-September! Also the Mediterranean sea continues much warmer than average. Central Europe was hot: temperatures pushed up to 30 °C in eastern Germany and up to 32 °C in southwestern Germany! Central Poland reached 30 °C, southern Poland up to 31 °C. This is extremely warm for mid-September. France pushed up to 33 °C in its central part, […]

Major hurricane Florence remains a very dangerous weather system and is on track with previous forecasts. It will be devastating for the coastal North Carolina. Florence has gone through some fluctuations in intensity in the past 6 hours and has now slightly weakened, but is still a strong Category 3 storm. However, the hurricane and tropical storm wind field has expanded, so it remains a very intense and large hurricane 36 hours prior to landfall in North Carolina tomorrow. Last minutes of daylight over Florence today, and the eye is now filled with cirrus clouds while its whole structure remains quite symmetric and impressive. The hurricane could still improve its shape and strengthen back to a Category 4 storm within […]

Super Typhoon Mangkhut maintains its status and has remained a solid Category 5 Super Typhoon through all night. It is now even stronger than during the previous satellite update – 1-minute sustained winds are now at 180 mph, which is almost 290 km/h. Gusts are up to 220 mph or 355 km/h! Central pressure is now estimated at 898 mbar. Finally, a new day is opening over the typhoon and again we face an incredible textbook structure of a powerful CAT 5 storm. Notice the completely symmetric shape and textbook stadium effect on the very intense eyewall. Latest model guidance is almost coincident to the previous two runs, so the future path leads Mangkhut into the northern outskirts of Luzon […]

The most intense tropical system of the year so far – Super Typhoon Mangkhut – maintains its Category 5 strength in western Pacific today. It is heading towards the strait of Luzon in two days. Latest model trends are suggesting Mangkhut will probably make landfall as a Category 5 typhoon on Saturday morning, devastating the northern parts of Luzon island with 250 km/h sustained winds and destructive flooding. The morning light brought some spectacular satellite imagery of typhoon Mangkhut in the visible spectrum, while the imagery in Infrared spectrum is nothing short of impressive as well. Mangkhut has such a textbook structure, perfectly symmetrical and compact shape with very cold cloud tops – all signs of a very powerful storm […]

While many are focusing on the dangerous major hurricane Florence, there is another interesting and potentially dangerous tropical system in the Atlantic. The Category 1 hurricane Helene is heading towards Europe early next week. Helene is currently still in the central Atlantic, but is moving towards the Azores. Later on, Helene will become a post-tropical storm and accelerates towards western Europe. It is possible the ex-hurricane Helene will be pushed into British isles and Ireland on Monday and bring gale force winds and torrential rainfall into the region. The latest satellite observations of Helene reveal it is still a solid Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 92 mph and central pressure around 977 mbar. For now it is still […]

Hurricane Florence is maintaining its awesome strength and remains a Category 4 hurricane. The views from the satellites are very impressive, but is there an even more impressive view? Yes, there are! The International Space Station (ISS) just passed 400 km high over the hurricane and brought some of the most spectacular imagery of tropical systems lately! Astronaut Alexander Gerst from ESA (The European Space Agency) has just shared some exceptional photographs, including close-up detailed photographs of the impressive eyewall and eye of Florence! ‏ This photo reveals a huge vertical wall of clouds (eyewall) rotating around the center of the hurricane. You can see the sea through the layer of low clouds – keep in mind this wall is […]

Hurricane Florence is maintaining its awesome strength and remains a Category 4 hurricane. The views from the satellites are very impressive, but is there an even more impressive view? Yes, we can! An International space station (ISS) just had a pass over the hurricane and brought some of the most spectacular imagery of tropical systems lately! An astronaut Alexander Gerst from ESA (The European Space Agency) has just shared close-up detailed photographs of an impressive eyewall and eye of Florence! ‏ This photo reveals a huge vertical wall of clouds (eyewall) rotating around the center of the hurricane. You can see the sea through the layer of low clouds – keep in mind this wall is approximately 15km high! In […]

The major hurricane Florence is beginning to strengthen again this morning, after some fluctuations were observed overnight. It maintains a Category 4 strength and is expected to remain at similar strength or even slightly stronger prior to making landfall tomorrow late afternoon. Central pressure has been around 945 mbar with sustained winds of 140 mph. This morning’s water vapour satellite revealed some asymmetrical appearance of the whole system, with some dry intrusion in the SW quadrant. This could mean there is some weak shear effecting this part of Florence, but the latest trends are showing the closing of this quadrant as well. The hurricane is getting more symmetrical and should continue to maintain powerful Category 4 strength or even intensify […]

Large parts of southern and central Europe are experiencing unseasonably warm weather, with temperatures being about 5 °C and locally up to ~7 °C warmer than average for mid-September. One could say parts of Europe are in the midst of a late heat wave. This is not unexpected, as the current weather pattern is highly favourable for very warm weather. Temperatures pushed into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the Iberian peninsula and upper 20s to lower 30s across much of France, Italy, the eastern Adriatic coast, the Pannonian basin and extreme southeastern Europe. Very warm weather for mid-September indeed! Meanwhile, the Mediterranean sea is also much warmer than average. See the maps below for peak temperatures across Europe […]

The exceptional Super Typhoon Mangkhut is currently raging in the western Pacific. It crossed the Mariana Islands two days ago and then rapidly strengthened until today when it reached Category 5 strength with 160 mph sustained winds and central pressure around 915 mbar. It is expected to maintain Category 5 force and gain some additional intensity through the next 48 hours. Daylight is now coming over Mangkhut and revealing the outstanding structure of the typhoon, with textbook stadium effect of the eyewall and large clear eye. A perfect example of a monster typhoon. Mangkhut will be going through extremely warm sea on its future path, so additional strengthening is quite likely despite typhoon is already a Category 5 storm. Joint […]