Severe Weather Europe

Telli voog Uudisvoog Severe Weather Europe
“Follow severe weather as it happens. Anywhere. Any time.”
Internetiaadress: http://www.severe-weather.eu
Uuendatud: 1 tund 38 minutit tagasi

Windy week ahead for the British Isles and Ireland: three deep lows to impact the area

16. September 2018 - 22:12


The British Isles and Ireland are in for a lot of windy weather and locally quite a fair amount of rain this week, as no less than three deep lows are expected to pass over the region. The first is the ex-hurricane Helene, which looks comparatively mild, but the other two look potentially very strong with storm to potentially hurricane force winds. We take a closer look. Remnants of ex-hurricane Helene Ex-hurricane (post-tropical storm) Helene is looking less and less strong with each successive model run. Most models currently agree that the system will produce gale force winds with peak gusts around 100-120 km/h late tomorrow. A “wee breeze” as we are assured by the locals. ICON-EU model guidance. Map: […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong and southeastern China today – September 16, 2018

16. September 2018 - 18:20


Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong and southeastern China today with intense rainfall and powerful winds. As expected, landfall occurred in the late morning (UTC). Numerous reports have come in, indicating dangerous winds and locally significant damage. Typhoon Mangkhut at landfall over the coast of SE China today, September 16. Image: Himawari-8 / NOAA RAMMB CIRA. The typhoon was Category 1 at the time of landfall, still a very potent tropical system. Keep in mind, however, that it was a Category 5 super typhoon when it hit the Phillipines on Friday. Few reports have come in from the northern part of the Luzon island, which was the hardest hit region.

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Post-tropical storm Helene will hit Ireland and UK tomorrow evening

16. September 2018 - 14:30


The ex-hurricane Helene crossed the Azores with Tropical storm characteristics and strength last night and is now on its way towards western Europe. Helene will be an intense post-tropical/extra-tropical storm and expected to bring gale force winds up to around 120 km/h across south Ireland and parts of UK tomorrow late evening and overnight to Tuesday, Sept 18th. Right now, Helene is quickly undergoing an extratropical transition and will be accelerating northeastward and becoming absorbed in a large baroclinic zone extending over the northern UK. Here is the most likely scenario of its centre track across the British Isles and Ireland. Intensity forecast for Helene; it should maintain tropical storm force winds (sustained winds of 40-50 knots) while crossing S […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Typhoon Mangkhut now Category 2, heading for landfall in China today

16. September 2018 - 4:06


Typhoon Mangkhut has dropped from Category 5 to Category 2 after landfall over Luzon Island, Philippines late on Friday. The tyhoon is tracking across the Southern China Sea for landfall today. Typhoon Mangkhut over South China Sea today, 00:27 UTC. Image: Himawari-8 / NOAA RAMMB CIRA. Mangkhut rapidly lost organization and strength after landfall over Luzon Island, Philippines on Friday. It dropped from a Catefory 5 super typhoon to a Category 2 typhoon, currently with peak sustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h). It is currently tracking towards China for landfall today, south of Hongkong, likely between the cities Yangjiang and Maoming. While peak winds have diminished considerably, the Category 2 typhoon is still dangerous, extended torrential rainfall and major […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Mediterranean and Black sea very warm: up to 4 °C warmer than average for now

16. September 2018 - 2:59


The Mediterranean sea and the Black sea are both much warmer than is usual for this time of the year. The Mediterranean sea is currently about 1-2 °C warmer than the 1982-2012 average. The warmest parts are in the northern Mediterranean off the coast of south France and northwest Italy and in the northern Adriatic sea. Both of these areas are 2-3.5 °C warmer than average. The Black sea is even more anomalously warm: much of it is 2-4 °C warmer than average for this period! The extreme northwestern part is up to 5 °C warmer than average. Sea surface temperature anomaly (difference between current and average temperature) over the Mediterranean and Black seas on September 14. Map: our co-admin […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Intense rainfall and major flooding continues with ex-hurricane Florence

16. September 2018 - 1:25


A very intense rainfall with major flash floods in still on going across parts of North Carolina, a day after landfall of hurricane Florence. Now the center of Florence is weakened and inland over the eastern South Carolina, but a pronounced moisture flux convergence is maintaining a robust convective line/band from the warm Atlantic ashore into North Carolina. Locally more than 25-30 inches (600-750 mm) of rainfall has already been reported. As well as major flooding on going. Additional rainfall is expected as models are suggesting convective bands will be maintaining for another 36 hours. Satellite imagery of Florence revealing an impressive structure of the vortex with intense convective lines maintaining across North Carolina. Model simualation of a very well-defined […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Very warm week ahead for parts of Europe: locally up to 8-12 °C warmer than average

15. September 2018 - 23:12


A very warm week is ahead for parts of Europe this week. Much of the continent will be significantly warmer than is average for this period. The warmest parts will be central, eastern and southeastern Europe. Temperatures will be up to 8-12 °C higher than average for this period. In absolute terms, this means temperatures up to 30 °C and locally even higher. Southwestern and central France will likely push above 30 °C on Monday, with southern France going possibly up to 33-34 °C in the middle of the week. Germany will be warm as well, northwestern parts may reach 30 °C on Tuesday and Wednesday. Other parts of Germany will push into the upper 20s. Poland too will likely […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Tropical storm Helene nearing western Azores, expected to bring severe winds this evening

15. September 2018 - 18:41


The most western island of Azores – Flores – will be hit by an ex-hurricane Helene storm this evening. Helene is bringing tropical storm force winds into the area and expected to transforms into a post-tropical storm tomorrow. Helene is actually still revealing a quite impressive satellite presentation this afternoon, despite gradually loosing its tropical behaviour. We can see quite large system approaching western Azores with quite a lot of deep convection across the areas SW of Azores. Notice also a Tropical storm Joyce to the SW of Helene. Tropical storm conditions should spread over portions of the Azores during the next several hours and continue through tonight. Qualls of heavy rainfall are expected as well at times. Here is […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

The Baltic Sea is up to 3-4 °C warmer than average right now

15. September 2018 - 13:23


The unusually warm summer with several prolonged heat waves still reverbrates in the Baltic sea as it remains much warmer than average. Parts of the sea are up to 3-4 °C above average! As is the case with the Mediterranean sea, the Baltic sea is unusually warm. Latest analysis indicates parts of the southern and northeastern Baltic, along the coasts of Poland and Finland, is 3-4 °C above the 1982-2010 average. Elsewhere the temperature is about 1.5-2.5 °C above average. This translates into temperatures of about 18-19 °C in the southern part and 15-16 °C in the northern part. Sea surface temperature anomaly (difference between current and average temperature) over the Baltic sea on September 14. Map: our co-admin Andrej […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Super Typhoon Mangkhut makes a devastating hit on northern Luzon, continues into the South China Sea

15. September 2018 - 12:52


CAT5 Super Typhoon made landfall over northern Luzon late yesterday, September 14. The typhoon passed over the northern part of the island, loosing some of its strength. It has now entered the South China Sea and is again rapidly gaining strength and organization. Latest Himawari-8 imagery of Typhoon Manghkut near local sunset (8:50 UTC). Image brightened to show structure better. Image: Himawari-8 / NOAA RAMMB CIRA. Lanfall was around 17:20 UTC near Kinayabutan Beach, northern Luzon.The system rapdily lost strength as it passed across land, dropping to max sustained winds of 130 mph (209 km/h). While that is a significant drop in strength, it is still a Category 4 typhoon, a very powerful and dangerous system. Reports of major damage […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Super Typhoon Mangkhut makes landfall over northern Luzon, Philippines late on Friday, September 14

15. September 2018 - 0:55


CAT5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut has made landfall over northern Luzon, Philippines. Satellites indicate the typhoon likely reached its peak strength just before landfall. The system was packing 165 mph (265 km/h) sustained winds several hours before landfall. Satellite imagery indicated additional strengthening of the system just prior to landfall. Also evident was a tight and highly symmetric, circular eye, indicating a stable and very strong system. Landfall happened around 17:20 UTC near Kinayabutan Beach. Afterwards the eye rapidly collapsed as the system was disrupted by the landmass of Luzon island. Stay tuned for further updates as damage reports come in and as further details of the typhoon’s track into the South China sea become available.

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

A powerful windstorm associated with ex-hurricane Helene increasingly likely to hit Ireland on Monday afternoon

14. September 2018 - 14:10


Hurricane Helene has gradually weakened this morning and is now a strong Tropical Storm with max sustained winds of 65 mph and 992 mbar central pressure. Its future track will lead it towards the Azores by tomrorow afternoon (Saturday, Sept 15th) and then likely towards the British Isles and Ireland on late Monday or early Tuesday, Sept 18th. Models are suggesting it will remain a very powerful post-tropical storm once it approaches the western Europe. The most supported scenario of ex-Helene’s arrival into western Europe is nearing the SW Ireland on Monday late afternoon and evening time. Models have been quite consistent with this trend in the past 48 hours. The transition into an extratropical cyclone will likely be completed […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Extremely powerful Super Typhoon Mangkhut nearing Luzon, Philippines

14. September 2018 - 12:26


Mangkhut remains an extremely powerful typhoon as it continues moving WNW towards the northern tip of Luzon island, Philippines. It packs sustained winds of 165-170 mph (265-274 km/h) with central pressure around 900 mbar. Mangkhut’s landfall is expected early on Saturday (Sept 15th) morning local time. An exceptional Himawari-8 satellite presentation of Category 5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut during the sunset time over Philippines. These are the likely forecast tracks per various model runs, a direct hit/landfall in the northern tip of Luzon is expected. Typhoons of such intensity usually tend to wobble just prior to landfall so the exact future track is very hard to forecast. However, when Category 5 storms are concerned, a shift in track 50 km up/down […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Powerful hurricane Florence devastating North Carolina coast with major storm surge and flash floods

14. September 2018 - 11:08


The now CAT 1 hurricane Florence is brushing the coastal areas of North Carolina now, resulting in major storm surge combined with very intense rainfall and flash floods. Numerous areas along the coast have already been flooded. Florence is moving very slowly towards west now, so these extreme weather conditions are expected to prevail through much of the night and morning hours local time. Radar and satellite analysis is revealing a still impressive structure of the inner eyewall, positioned about 30-40 miles off the coast SE of Wilmington, Carolina. This puts the coastal areas in greater danger as the almost complete and closed eyewall is being maintained over the warm waters and releasing its power ashore. Water vapour satellite image […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Strong heat wave for much of Europe next week – models agree

14. September 2018 - 10:34


Mid-range model trends are confirming a new heat wave across Europe next: temperatures will likely be 8-10 °C higher than average for mid to late-September in central, western, eastern and southeastern Europe. This means temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s again! The heat wave comes as a response to a pattern change across much of Europe: a strong ridge develops over much of the continent, with deep troughs and lows – including the expected post-tropical storm Helen – forcing warm air advection ahead of them, a Spanish Plume setup over western Europe and a strong ridge elsewhere. Models agree on very high temperature anomaly: daytime highs will likely pushing as far as 30 °C as far north as […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Update: CAT5 Super Typhoon Mangkhut reintensifying as it tracks towards the Philippines

14. September 2018 - 1:31


Super Typhoon Mangkhut has remained a powerful Category 5 system throughout the day today. It lost a slight bit of power in the first half of the day, as it went through an eyewall replacement cycle, but is now gaining strength again. Even as it weakened slightly, it never went below CAT5 strength. Mangkhut is on track to produce absolute devastation as it makes landfall on Luzon on Saturday! The Super Typhoon went through an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eye collapsing and being replaced by a stable, larger-diameter outer eye. As this happened the typhoon weakened, with peak winds decreasing from 180 mph (290 km/h) late on September 12 to 165 mph (265 km/h) by mid-day on September […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

An intense mid September heat wave to develop across Europe next week

14. September 2018 - 0:27


“Indian summer” anyone? Models are confirming a likely intense early autumn heat wave to develop across much of Europe next week. In response to a changing pattern, strong warm advection will spread across central and northern Europe and bring 4-5 days of very warm to hot days. Deep troughs will be ongoing across the N Atlantic and a powerful upper ridge will develop to its east and dominate Europe. This will develop a heat wave after Tuesday, Sept 18th. The extreme warmth starts on Tuesday in response to a deep trough over the Atlantic and a push of strong warm advection onto western Europe, ahead of a post-tropical storm nearing British Isles and Ireland. A very warm day is expected […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Hurricane Florence strengthening again near the coast of North Carolina

13. September 2018 - 23:55


Hurricane Florence has been maintaining a solid strong CAT 2 strength through all day. However, the last few hours satellite and radar data are revealing a gradual strengthening of the system: the inner eyewall has closed and it appears likely the hurricane is intensifying again! Latest NOAA Hurricane Hunters mission through the eye is confirming the satellite/radar analysis with pressure now at around 952 mbar (officially NHC put it to 955 mbar previously) and sustained winds of 90 knots. Florence has slowed down and is moving towards NW, nearing the landfall in North Carolina coast tonight. Latest radar imagery is revealing an impressive structure of the inner and also outer eyewall. Notice the inner eyewall has almost completely closed up. […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

UPDATE: Mangkhut remains a powerful CAT 5 typhoon and heads for N Philippines in 48 hours

13. September 2018 - 17:55


The powerful Category 5 super typhoon Mangkhut has been showing an impressive satellite presentation throughout the day today, with some visible fluctuations in its intensity. It remained at the maximum strength and only slightly lower winds were observed: it is now packing 165 mph (265 km/h) winds with gusts up to 200 mph (322 km/h). Estimated central pressure is 907 mbar. While hurricanes are analyzed with satellites and also NOAA airplanes for data sampling, typhoons are monitored with satellites only. Mangkhut continues showing a very symmetric structure and is a very large system. The eyewall is closed and deep convection is ongoing. Basically there are no obvious signs Mangkhut is going to weaken significantly in the next 2 days prior […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

Update on the potentially damaging windstorm (ex-hurricane Helene) towards Ireland early next week

13. September 2018 - 16:36


Hurricane Helene is becoming better organized today, based on satellite imagery. It has sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) with a central pressure around 986 mbar. Its track will lead it towards the Azores this weekend and then likely towards the British Isles and Ireland on Tuesday next week. Models are suggesting it will remain a very powerful post-tropical storm once it approaches western Europe. Infrared satellite scans this afternoon are revealing a large eye surrounded by convective bands which suggests the storm remains a healthy CAT 1 hurricane and is expected to maintain this strength until it passes Azores on Sunday morning. Here is latest model guidance for Helene on Monday, Sept 17th when it will already acting […]

Kategooriad: Välismaa uudised

22. septembri ekstreemumid 2008-2018

AastaMaks.KeskmineMin.
201821,6°C16,88°C11,5°C
201718,9°C13,64°C10,3°C
201614,9°C10,46°C1,3°C
201517,8°C12,88°C7,9°C
201417,8°C12,73°C8,2°C
201315,6°C11,65°C6,2°C
201215,7°C11,48°C4,7°C
201117,4°C13,94°C8,9°C
201014,5°C11,79°C6,9°C
200917,2°C13,67°C8,2°C
200819,0°C12,21°C6,4°C

Ilmateenistuse ennustus

14...19°C
13...16°C
7...12°C
12...14°C
3...12°C
10...13°C
5...11°C
8...12°C

Rõhkkonnad Eestis

PäevMadal- rõhkkondKõrg- rõhkkond
22.09.Elena
22.09.Elena
21.09.Rodegang
20.09.Rodegang
19.09.Rodegang

Ennustuse täpsuse jooksva kuu parimad

AllikasPäevi%
Yr.no293,95%
Yr.no193,72%
Ilmateenistus 292,39%
Ilmateenistus 192,16%
Ilmateenistus 389,89%

Päevarekordid

Täna Tallinnas kõige soojem on olnud 20,3°C (1938) ja külmem -1,0°C (1999).

Täna Tartus kõige soojem on olnud 23,0°C (1909) ja külmem -3,2°C (1969).

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22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 15-17 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul sisemaal puhanguti 15-17 m/s, rannikualadel puhanguti 18-20 m/s
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul sisemaal puhanguti 15-17 m/s, rannikualadel puhanguti 18-20 m/s
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul sisemaal puhanguti 15-17 m/s, rannikualadel puhanguti 18-23 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul sisemaal puhanguti 15-17 m/s, rannikualadel puhanguti 18-23 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul sisemaal puhanguti 15-17 m/s, rannikualadel puhanguti 18-23 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul sisemaal puhanguti 15-17 m/s, rannikul 20 kuni 25 m/s.
22.09. päeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul sisemaal puhanguti 15-17 m/s, rannikul 20 kuni 25 m/s.
22.09 hommikul püsib lõuna ja edelatuul puhanguti 14 kuni 17 m/s, keskpäeval tugevneb edelatuul 14 kuni 18, puhanguti 20 kuni 25 m/s.
22.09 hommikul püsib lõuna ja kagutuul puhanguti 14 kuni 17 m/s, keskpäeval tugevneb edela ja lõunatuul 15, puhanguti 18 kuni 22 m/s.
22.09 hommikul püsib edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 14 kuni 17 m/s, ennelõunal tugevneb edelatuul 15, puhanguti 18 kuni 22 m/s.
22.09 hommikul püsib edela ja lõunatuul puhanguti 14 kuni 17 m/s, ennelõunal tugevneb edelatuul 15, puhanguti 18 kuni 22 m/s.
edela ja lõunatuul 14-18, puhanguti 20-25 m/s.
lõuna- ja kagutuul 8-10, puhanguti 12-14 m/s.

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