Severe Weather Europe

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large trough is located over the N Atlantic and W Europe with a sharp short-wave crossing Benelux and NW Germany during the afternoon and evening hours. To the east of the trough, strengthening ridge is ongoing elsewhere except S Mediterranean and Balkan where remnants of an old upper low remain. Large low continues weakening over W Russia. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for NE France across Benelux into WNW and N Germany with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large to very large hail. In the early morning, a cluster of storms will enter from the UK and English channel towards NW Germany and Denmark with mainly […]

Most of the models have intensified the severity of the heat wave developing next week, trending into the potential for low 40s peak afternoon temperatures across parts of France. Stronger heat with 30-33 °C seems also increasingly likely across England from Tuesday to Thursday. The 500 mbar chart indicates a classic omega blocking ridge pattern developing, centered over western Europe. Two upper-level troughs / lows are located along its western and eastern flanks, one over the Black sea region and a deeper one over N Atlantic, resulting in a strong Spanish plume pattern with strong warm airmass advection across Iberia into France, Benelux and UK. Similar to the first intense heat wave a few weeks ago, the upcoming heat wave […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large trough is located over the N Atlantic with a wave pushed into the British Isles and Ireland. A large but shallow low remains over the S Mediterranean, NW Africa and S Balkans while a deep upper low is located over W Russia. Elsewhere, strengthening ridging is ongoing over N Europe, central and SW Europe. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for SW UK and Wales with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and marginally large hail. SLGT risk has been issued for NE Turkey and Georgia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large to very large hail and torrential rainfall. SLGT risk has […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Low geopotential heights persist across much of Europe with several upper lows embedded. One is over N UK, the second one of W Russia while two waves cross N Mediterranean and Turkey. Ridging is strengthening over the Azores and Scandinavia. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for NW Italy and parts of N Balkans with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing large hail and torrential rainfall. Rather slow-moving storms are expected, fueled by moderate MLCAPE and marginal shear. Flash floods and hail accumulations are locally possible. ENH / SLGT risks has been issued for NE Turkey and Georgia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large to very large hail […]

After a rather dynamic and quite cooler period through early July, a sharp flip in the pattern is shaping up on both global models. Yet another significant heat wave is likely to develop through the next week as strong ridge establishes over west-central Europe. Afternoon temperatures are likely to climb into 35-40 °C in some areas again! Models are in a good agreement in the development of an extensive upper ridge after Sunday, as a high-pressure system over Azores (Azores High) strengthens and merges with a strengthening upper ridge and an associated surface anticyclone over central Europe. By Monday, ridge intensifies over western and central Europe while deep trough sits over the N Atlantic. A strong warm advection forms over […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large trough persists across east-central Europe and part of Mediterranean but gradually weakening with an embedded deep low moving from S Italy towards the Aegean sea. Shallow ridging is over W Europe. Another deep low moves across the Baltic region. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for S Italy and Sicily across the Ionian sea into Greece with threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential / excessive rainfall and tornadoes / waterspouts. Widespread convective activity is again expected across the risk areas, within a moderate unstable and sheared environment. Mostly slow-moving storms and clusters are expected with locally flash floods threat as some high-resolution models are again hinting more […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Upper ridge over N Atlantic is weakening while a large trough persists across east-central Europe. An embedded deep low is located over the Ligurian bay, slowly drifting along the W Italian coast towards Sicily. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for Ligurian / Tyrrhenian seas and along the W coast of Italy into Sicily with threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential / excessive rainfall and tornadoes / waterspouts. Widespread convective activity will be ongoing within moderately unstable and sheared environment. Slow-moving storms are expected with locally flash floods threat as high-resolution models are hinting more than 100-150 mm of rainfall per 24 hour period. Waterspouts are also likely along […]

An extremely severe thunderstorm hit Pescara (Abruzzo, central Italy) in the afternoon of July 10th, 2019. The thunderstorm produced very large to giant hail, with hailstones up to 15 cm in diameter, severe straight line winds and intense flash floods. The event was part of a 5-day severe weather outbreak over the northern and central Mediterranean. The event was part of a 5-day severe weather outbreak across the entire northern and central Mediterranean region, also spreading into the Alpine region and the Balkans. A detailed analysis was also performed by the European Severe Storms Labolatory (ESSL). Several high risk forecasts were issued, with day 5 – July 10th – being the most dangerous day. A HIGH/SIG risk was issued for […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Deep long-wave trough persists across the eastern half of Europe with a pronounced short-wave across the W Balkans and Adriatic sea. To the west, ridge expands from N Atlantic across W Europe into the SSW Mediterranean. A small but deep upper low crosses Iberia. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for south-central Adriatic sea region including E Italy and W Croatia into S Montenegro and W Albania with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall, large hail and some tornado / waterspout threat. A cold front pushes across the region from north to south, starting by early morning hours across N Adriatic. While spreading south during the […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ +++ A significant severe weather outbreak with intense supercells capable of producing extremely severe damaging winds, tornadoes and very large to giant wind-driven hail across SE Italy into S Adriatic sea and S Albania is expected on Wednesday, July 10th 2019 +++ SYNOPSIS A large trough over ENE Europe will push a sharp short-wave trough across the Balkan peninsula and Italy, providing a large-scale ascent within strong jet stream across the region. Upper low over Iberia moves towards SW. Ridging persists over W Europe while it strengthens over N Europe. DISCUSSION HIGH risk has been issued for SE Italy (Molise and Puglia regions) across the S Adriatic into S Albania and extreme NW Greece with threat […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ +++ A severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected across parts of Po valley across the Adriatic sea into W Croatia this afternoon and tonight. Intense supercells with very large hail, severe damaging winds and tornadoes are likely! +++ SYNOPSIS A large long-wave upper trough is centered over W Russia and E Europe with a sharp short-wave pushed across the Alps and the N Mediterranean, while a shallow upper ridge is located over the S Mediterranean. In between, a very robust jet stream is providing both large-scale forcing and strong shear for widespread convective activity. To the west, a weakening upper low is centered over Iberia while a ridge builds up over W Europe. DISCUSSION HIGH risk has […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ +++ An outbreak of severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes seem likely across parts of central Europe and the Balkan peninsula on Sunday +++ SYNOPSIS A large trough over NNE Europe will dig more south with a wave crossing central Europe. A deepening upper low remains over W Iberia while N Atlantic is under the strong ridge. Higher geopotentials are also over the Mediterranean and S Balkans. In between, strong zonal flow is established across the N Mediterranean and N Balkans. DISCUSSION HIGH / MDT risks have been issued for N Italy, Slovenia, Croatia into S Hungary, N Serbia and N Bosnia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe damaging […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS An upper ridge over W and CNTRL Europe collapses with a deep trough over N Europe digging more south. Two intense cold core lows are moving over S Scandinavia and E of Baltic region. Another large upper low remains over W Iberia while a pronounced short-wave with frontal boundary is located over the Alps. DISCUSSION MDT risk has been issued for S-CNTRL France, S Switzerland into N Italy and W Slovenia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall, large to very large hail and some tornado threat. Scattered intense storms are expected to develop, including well-organized supercells within the moderately strong shear (40-50 knots of bulk shear) and […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Upper ridging persists across N Atlantic across west-central and SE Europe while the deep trough is located over NNE Europe with an upper low over SW Iberia. A pronounced wave crosses central Scandinavia. Weak short-wave disturbance and surface front extends from W Alps towards S Balkans. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for N Italy with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. SLGT risk has been issued for south-central Balkans with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Scattered slow-moving storms are expected under strong instability within weakly sheared environment. SLGT risk has been issued for SE Norway across […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS An upper ridge persists across N Atlantic and W Europe with higher geopotential heights across central and SE Europe. Deep trough remains over NNE Europe while an upper low os located SW of Iberia. A short-wave crosses the Alps and E Balkan peninsula. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for NNE Italy into W Slovenia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall and large to very large hail. An overlap of strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) with weakly to moderate deep-layer shear (near 30 knots) and helicity will support organized severe storms, including intense multicells and a few supercells, posing risk for very large hail (5+ cm). […]

Hurricane Barbara has rapidly strengthened and now packs sustained 155 mph winds, making it a high-end CAT 4 system, just shy of the top, CAT 5 threshold. CAT4 Hurricane Barbara in GOES-17 shortwave IR imagery at 6:35 UTC on July 3. Source: Tropicaltidbits The system is located in the eastern Pacific, far out over open waters. It rapidly strengthened from tropical storm strenght late on July 1st to a Category 4 hurricane by midday on July 2nd – less than a day! It now packs 155 mph (249 km/h) per latest National Hurricane Center data. A high-end Category 4 system, just below Category 5 threshold. Central pressure is 933 mbar. The system is highly symmetric and displays a large and […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS An upper ridge over central Europe collapses while it intensifies over W Europe and N Atlantic. A weakening and slowly southwards drifting cold front is extending from W Russia across Ukraine and the Alps towards N Iberia. DISCUSSION ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for E Hungary, N Romania and Moldova, central Ukraine into W Russia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large to very large hail. An overlap of strong to extreme instability and moderate deep-layer shear will support organized severe storms, including supercells. Clustering into a larger system or two seems possible in the evening hours over E Ukraine into W Russia. SLGT risk has […]

An outbreak of severe storms seems likely across SE Germany, Czechia, N Austria, N Slovakia and S Poland this afternoon and evening hours as cold front moves through. Extreme instability with good overlap of moderate to strong shear should support both discrete supercells and bowing segments with very large hail and destructive wind threat. Strong to extreme instability will be present ahead of the front, supportive of the explosive development of storms by mid-afternoon hours. Locally more than 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be present and therefore very large hail will be possible with most organized supercell storms. ARW model is quite aggressive will a large area of 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE across SE Germany and Czech Republic. Surface winds […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ +++ A significant outbreak of severe weather is expected across SE Germany, N Austria, Czech Republic, N Slovakia, S Poland and W Ukraine today. Damaging storms including supercells with very large hail and destructive winds are likely through the afternoon and evening hours. +++ SYNOPSIS A strong ridge is located over the southern half of Europe while a large long-wave trough is moving across northern Europe with a surface cyclone located over Scandinavia. A sharp frontal boundary is extending from NW Russia across east-central Europe towards France. DISCUSSION HIGH risk has been issued for E Czech Republic into N Slovakia and S Poland with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe to extremely severe straight-line […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A powerful Omega blocking pattern is establishes over north-central Europe. A short-wave with front crosses the british Isles. Deep trough on the eastern flank of the ridge continues south. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for N England into SSE Scotland with threat for severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. SLGT risk has been issued for N Portugal and NW Spain with threat for isolated severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. SLGT risk has been issued for E Turkey and Georgia with threat for severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are likely to occur but should remain sub-severe.