Severe Weather Europe

VALID FOR 20-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep trough is located over Greenland and Iceland while upper ridge is strengthening over the W-CNTRL Europe. An upper low is centered over Algeria. At surface, an intense cyclone moves east between Greenland and Iceland while a shallow cyclone is located over the S Mediterranean. DISCUSSION ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for parts of N Atlantic into NW Iceland with threat for severe to extremely severe winds in excess of 120 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for parts of coastal N Norway (Lofoten) with threat for severe winds, locally reaching 90-110 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for E Tunisia into S Mediterranean for severe storms, capable of […]

VALID FOR 19-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS An upper ridge expands across the N Atlantic and western Europe, results in ejecting the cut off low on its eastern flank from central towards the W Mediterranean. Deep trough over the N Europe weakens where a shallow cold front extends from eastern Europe across the S Balkan peninsula towards the S Mediterranean. A deep trough develops across Greenland and Iceland, resulting in deep cyclone moving east towards the Norwegian sea. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for the SSE Iceland with threat for severe to extremely severe wind gusts. Downslope wind gusts could locally exceed 120 km/h. ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for Norwegian sea into western Norway with […]

VALID FOR 18-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep trough is moving east across the north and central Europe with a strong surface cold front crossing the Alps and N Balkan peninsula. An upper ridge over the Balkan peninsula weakens while spreading into the Black Sea region. A new upper ridge develops over the north Atlantic. DISCUSSION WNTR risk has been issued for excessive snowfall across the NW Slovenia into S Austria where locally 50+ cm of fresh snowfall is possible above 1800 m ASL. Additionally, up to 100 mm of rainfall is possible across the Kvarner region (Gorski Kotar) and NW Slovenia due to persistent orographic precipitation. The cold front will change rain to snow by early/mid afternoon […]

VALID FOR 17-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A very deep trough with an intense surface cyclone crosses the North Sea and moves into south Scandinavia. An associated cold front continues towards the central Europe. Ahead of this trough, an upper ridge expands into the Balkan peninsula. An upper low finally ejects the Middle East. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for part of North Sea into extreme SW Norway with threat for severe to extremely severe winds, locally in excess of 120 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the ENH risk including SW Norway, Denmark, and SW Sweden with threat for severe winds, locally in excess of 110 km/h. TSTM risk areas have been placed where […]

A deep cyclone will develop over the North Sea late on Saturday and early on Monday. It will bring storm force winds to parts of the North Sea and the coast of south Norway and NW Denmark. A rapidly deepening cyclone was passing across the northern parts of the British Isles early on Saturday, tracking towards the North Sea. It is expected to further rapidly deepen, to a mean sea level pressure between 960 and 970 mbar early on Sunday, as it tracks from the North Sea into south Norway and towards south Sweden. Peak wind gusts of 100-130 km/h are expected along the southern coast of Norway, up to about 100 km/h along the NW coast of Denmark. Also […]

VALID FOR 16-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS The upper ridge dominates southern and southwestern Europe while an upper trough is moving across the eastern Europe. An upper low moves across the Middle East. Another deep trough develops over the Atlantic and pushes into the western Europe. At surface, a deep cyclone pushes across the British Isles and Ireland into the North Sea. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for S Ireland, SW England and Wales for severe non-convective wind gusts, locally in excess of 90-100 km/h. Excessive rainfall is also possible across parts of Wales (Snowdonia National park) where 80-100 mm of rainfall sums is likely. SLGT risk has been issued for the North Sea and extreme S Norway […]

Quite a lot of snow is expected across parts of the Alps this weekend as excessive snowfall event establishes. Most snow with total amounts above 75 cm is expected across the west-central Alps (western Austria and southern Switzerland). Pattern is characterized by a strong ridge over the southwest Europe and deep trough over east and north Europe, resulting in strong NW flow in between. This brings persistent orographic lifting and moisture advection into the NNW Alps. Various models are suggesting locally 50-100 cm of fresh snow is likely through the next days across the higher elevations of the Alps. More snow is expected on Monday when a new frontal system, associated with a deep trough, crosses central Europe. Snow will […]

VALID FOR 15-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep trough pushes from the north Atlantic into the northern Europe, while another trough moves across the south Balkan peninsula towards the Middle East. Ridge from the Azores region expands into SW Europe. Surface cyclone over Scandinavia pushes a cold front across the North Sea and Denmark towards Germany and Poland. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for parts of the North Sea, south Denmark, north Germany into northwest Poland with threat for severe winds associated with the cyclone passage. MRGL risk has been issued for Middle East where threat for isolated severe storms exists, mainly for marginal hail and severe winds. WNTR risk has been issued for higher west-central Alps […]

VALID FOR 14-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Upper ridge dominates the Azoric region while deep long-wave trough remains over the northern Europe. Several short-waves are pushed on its southern flank, one across the North Sea, one across the southern Mediterreanean / Greece and another wave is ejecting Middle East. DISCUSSION MRGL risk has been issued for Ionian sea, south Greece and Crete island with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing marginally large hail, severe winds and heavy rainfall. TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are most likely.

VALID FOR 13-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Deep trough with an intense surface cyclone moves from the western Europe towards southern Scandinavia with an associated cold front pushed towards central Europe. An upper low moves east across the eastern Mediterranean. Azoric high pressure system remains very strong and therefore supports zonal flow to its north. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for parts of British Isles, Ireland, North Sea, Benelux and northern Germany with threat for severe winds, locally in excess of 100 km/h. Cold maritime airmass from the north Atlantic cyclone should bring unstable airmass into parts of western Europe where parts of Scotland, England and Wales could also experience enhanced threat for severe convective winds. ENH / […]

The worst storm in decades may strike Mozambique this weekend as an intense tropical cyclone Idai has developed just west of Madagastar and is currently packing winds of 90 knots and central pressure around 968 mbar. It is expected to remain a Category 2 / 3 until it makes landfall in Mozambique on Friday, March 15th. Some satellite images of the large system from this morning: Future track suggests it will be moving WSW in the next 36-48 hours before it turns WNW on Thursday and heads for the coast of Mozambique. Landfall is likely just north of the city of Beira, the 4th largest city on the country. Idai should reach its peak intensity – likely a Category 3 […]

A very dangerous cyclone has developed over the North Atlantic today. It is expected to intensify tonight and develop an intense windstorm with gusts near 200 km/h over parts of N Atlantic tomorrow, while 110-130 km/h gusts are also possible for parts of British Isles and Ireland in the afternoon and evening hours, March 12th. The pattern is characterized by a very deep trough over the North Atlantic, developing an intense surface cyclone south of Iceland. Cyclone continues deepening while moving towards Scotland. An intense pressure gradient results in very strong wind field around the centre and pushes an intense windstorm across the N Atlantic towards the British Isles and Ireland. Attached is the 3-hour sequence of a deep cyclone […]

VALID FOR 12-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep trough with an intense cyclone pushes from the North Atlantic into the British Isles and Ireland. Another deep trough is located over the northwest Russia. A short-wave / low moves from the central Mediterranean across Greece and towards Turkey. DISCUSSION HIGH risk has been issued for parts of North Atlantic with theat for extremely severe wind gusts in excess of 160-180 km/h! Various high resolution models are hinting a development of a ‘sting-jet’ which could enhance wind gusts even more, therefore gusts could even exceed 200 km/h. Despite threat remaining over the open waters, very dangerous windstorm will result from the deep cyclone’s pressure gradient south of Iceland. MDT risk […]

VALID FOR 11-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep trough is located over the northern Europe with one short-wave pushed across the eastern Europe and another one pushed across the central Europe into the Mediterranean. Another deep trough with intense surface cyclone approaches the British Isles and Ireland from the north Atlantic. DISCUSSION ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for parts of N Atlantic into Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland with threat for severe winds locally in excess of 110 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for parts of North Sea into the Netherlands with threat for severe winds in excess of 90-100 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for parts of north-central Mediterranean with threat for severe […]

Snow is expected across large parts of the British Isles between Sunday and Tuesday. Some areas will see up to 10-15 cm of fresh snow. We take a closer look. Two lows will bring two successive rounds of snowfall. The stronger one is expected on Sunday, as a fairly deep low pushes across Scotland, bringing snowfall across much of the British Isles and Ireland, except for southern UK. Snowfall will persist until early into Monday as cold air pushes behind the low and cold front. As the new, much broader and deeper low approaches from the northwest on Monday and early on Tuesday, warm air advection establishes over the region, bringing warmer airmass and temperatures well above 0 °C. A […]

VALID FOR 10-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Deep trough dominates the northern half of Europe while ridging persists across the southern half. In between, strong zonal flow with several waves establishes. One short-waves pushes across the eastern Europe while another waves rapidly moves across the western Europe. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for parts of SE England, English Channel, NE France and Benelux with threat for severe winds locally in excess of 100 km/h. SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the ENH risk including the southern England, north France, Benelux, south central Germany, Czech Republic and north Austria with threat for severe winds locally in excess of 90 km/h. TSTM risk areas have been placed across […]

VALID FOR 09-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Europe is divided in two halves, a large deep trough is located over N Europe while ridging dominates S Europe. A surface cyclone moves across the North Sea and S Scandinavia with cold front and wave pushed across Poland while another short wave drifts SE over the Balkan peninsula. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for N Scotland across the North Sea towards Denmark, NNE Germany into Poland with threat for severe winds in excess of 100 km/h locally. SLGT risk has also been issued across NNE Germany into Poland and N Czech Republic with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing some marginal hail and severe winds. Despite the lack […]

Parts of the southern United States are in for another severe weather period as deep trough pushes from west to east across CONUS. Severe storms with supercells are expected, likely producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes again. Areas affected extend from the eastern Texas through Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennesee, Kuntucky and Alabama towards Florida and Georgia. Strong warm advection ahead of the trough should result in unstable environment ahead/along the strong cold front. With good overlap of unstable and strongly sheared environment, organized severe storms are expected. Attached are upper-level jet stream and supercell composite maps. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued SLGT and ENH risk areas for both today and tomorrow, Saturday March 9th. Threat expends into far […]

VALID FOR 08-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep trough is dominating the northern Europe while an upper ridge is located across the southeast Europe. A new ridge builds up SW of Iberia. At surface, a deep cyclone moves across the southern Scandinavia with an associated cold front pushed across the Balkan peninsula. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for parts of North Sea, Denmark, SW Norway, S Sweden into the Baltic sea region with threat for severe winds, locally in excess of 100 km/h. TSTM risk areas have been placed where convective storms are most likely to occur across the Alps, western Balkan peninsula, central Italy and parts of N Atlantic.

VALID FOR 07-03-2019 Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS The Atlantic deep trough moves into the western Europe while an upper ridge is located across the southern Europe and Balkan peninsula. A short-wave trough ejects Turkey towards the Middle East. At surface, a cold front moves across central Europe. DISCUSSION SLGT/MRGL risks has been issued for SE Turkey into Middle East where some severe storms with threat for marginal hail, torrential rainfall and severe winds are possible. Quite strong shear overlaps with marginal instability and should support organized storms. MRGL risk has been issued for extreme SE France and NW Italy where some isolated severe storms are possible, capable of producing severe winds, marginal hail and torrential rainfall. Despite only marginal […]