Severe Weather Europe

It is almost like a game. First we have a cold front coming this week from the north, bringing colder air into central and eastern Europe, aided by the strengthening blocking ridge over the Atlantic. Next week that ridge will move over Europe, replacing the cold north air, with warmth from the southwest.     As we wrote on Saturday, there is a cold front sweeping over the central and eastern Europe from the north this week, reducing air temperature by up to 10°C in some places. It is already descending down from Scandinavia as we write this article, and is forecast to sweep over central and eastern Europe on Tuesday night and on Wednesday, cooling the temperatures to quite below […]

Invest-97L is the new area of potential development in the central Atlantic, with a high chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next few days.   Invest-97L is currently just an area under observation, but it shows strong signs of potential development. Convection is persistent and strengthening, with a now visible center area of low pressure and circulation.  IR satellite imagery of Invest-97L area. Image by Tropical Tidbits. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) recognizes the slow organisation of this convective area of low pressure, and currently gives it 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 2 days, and a high 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Development potential outlook for Invest-97L […]

A deep cyclone passed just south of Iceland into the Norwegian sea late on September 14th and early on September 15th. Hurricane-force winds were reported on Faroe Islands and storm-force winds in Scotland and Norway. We were there – Marko Korošec reported live from Gassadalur, Faroe Islands as it was whipped by intense winds and major waves. Peak wind gusts of 255 km/h were reported by the weather station Norðradalsvegur, Faroe Islands. Peak wind gusts of 180 km/h were reported at Cairngrom, Scotland (elevated, 1245 m) and 160 km/h at Aonach Mor, Scotland (elevated, 1130 m) and 140 km/h in Krakenes, Norway. The cyclone bottomed out at ~976 mbar late on September 14th while over the western part of the […]

As soon we get into September, cold air shots from from the north are getting more common. One such event is forecast for early next week, that will bring colder temperatures to central and eastern Europe, more common for late autumn.  A strong blocking ridge will start to rise over the east Atlantic region/west Europe on Monday, while on its eastern side, a deep trough will descent from the north on Tuesday night, bringing colder polar air into continental Europe.  500mb geopotential height anomaly forecast. Image from Pivotalweather.. Temperature at 850mb level (~1.500m) will drop from 5-10°C below normal, as 0°C temperature reaches into central Europe. 850mb level temperature anomaly. Image from Pivotalweather. Temperature at the surface is expected too […]

Meteorological autumn is upon us, and usually that means that the mighty polar vortex is about to make its seasonal return. You can read in the article linked below what the polar vortex is and why it forms every year. Polar vortex: What is it, and why you should care? Every autumn when the north hemisphere receives less light and heat from the sun, the polar region start to cool. Due to the processes described in the article linked above, pressure starts to drop as the atmosphere above the North Pole starts to cool. What forms higher in the stratosphere is similar to a large cyclone. Its not the same, but it is easier to explain it as a large […]

We are at the peak of the hurricane season, and we are already looking ahead at the possibility of new storms developing. We already talked today about the Tropical depression 9 forming, but now we also have Invest-96L, which is an area of deep convection, but could soon become a tropical storm. Invest-96L is currently just an area under observation, but it shows strong signs of potential development. There is deep convection already present, and it is currently moving west into more favorable conditions for further development. IR satellite imagery of Invest-96L area. Image by Tropical Tidbits. It is not easy for models to forecast this development, since there is no well defined center of low pressure and circulation. Still, […]

The Atlantic hurricane season continues, as we get a new tropical depression forming. It is forecast to become a named system by tomorrow. The storm will be called Humberto. It is currently not projected to become a hurricane, but latest strength forecasts are not yet reliable, since the depression is not fully formed yet. Deep convection can already be seen on the satellite, rising around the center of the developing depression. Current IR satellite imagery of the forming depression. Image from Tropical Tidbits. The official forecast is for the system to become a tropical storm, moving into Florida tomorrow. Current official path outlook from the National Hurricane Center. General multi-model forecast is to bring tropical storm conditions to Florida, with […]

A few days ago, we wrote about the intense sudden stratospheric warming starting over the south pole. As recent data shows, it will go down as the strongest in known records over the south pole, strong enough to even temporarily reduce the size of the ozone hole.   The warming is currently still ongoing, and is forecast to persist for a while. As the south pole goes deeper into spring, the stratosphere will remain warm, since there is more influence and warmth from the sun with each day. Below we see the data from NOAA/CPC, which shows the warming in the stratosphere over south pole at high altitudes, and moving down with time, influencing weather at the surface.  As the upper […]

The cutoff low over the western Mediterranean persists and brings more unsettled weather, including large amounts of rainfall and severe thunderstorms to the region. Parts of eastern Spain will receive high rainfall totals in the next 2-3 days, leading to local flooding. As expected, a cutoff upper low brings unsettled weather wind severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall to western Mediterranean and parts of Spain. The system will persist over the region for the remainder of the week. High instability, with up to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will overlap with a persistent easterly flow for combined convective and orographic rainfall. Totals will likely approach 200-300 mm within the next 48-72 hours. Particularly affected will be regions: Murcia, Alicante and Valencia, and to […]

  Before going further into autumn and closer to a new winter season, we will be taking a last look at the previous winter of 2018/2019 in Europe. We already wrote a general analysis on winter 2018/2019, so now we will look at how it ranked in temperature anomalies compared to previous winters. Winter 2018/2019 was warmer than average in Europe, but it was far from being the warmest. The above normal temperatures were not as high, and there were below average temperatures in southern and far eastern parts of Europe. The highest above average temperatures occurred in the month of February 2019, while January 2019 was generally colder than normal across most parts of Europe. Data is from the […]

Iceland is a very well known volcanic island in the North Atlantic. It is one of the most active volcanic regions in the world, and as history shows, its eruptions can sometimes have powerful impacts on Europe and the entire Northern Hemisphere.  Iceland is powered by the spreading of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), combined with a vertical plume of hot molten rock from the mantle, also called a hotspot, that lies beneath Iceland (similar as the hotspot under Hawaii). Its more commonly called the Icelandic plume. A map of Iceland and its ice caps. From Saemundsson, 1979 The plume has periods of higher and lower activity. We have entered the new period of increased activity, also called the plume cycle. […]

A cutoff low will persist over the western Mediterranean and the Iberian peninsula for much of the week, bringing unstable weather and persistent rainfall to the region. Local flooding expected. A trough will have pushed across western Europe and formed a cutoff low in the western Mediterranean by late on Tuesday. The rather deep cutoff upper low will remain virtually stationary while a strong upper ridge establishes to its north, forming a rex blocking pattern. The cutoff low will remain over the western Mediterranean and the Iberian peninsula as it gradually fills towards the end of the week. 500 mbar height anomaly. GFS model guidance. Note the cutoff low over the Iberian peninsula / W Mediterranean. Map: Pivotal Weather. Major […]

Typhoon Faxai hit parts of eastern Japan. Tokyo metro area was affected by powerful winds and extreme torrential rainfall. #Typhoon #Faxai has caused unprecedented gusts in Japan’s southern islands. The current central pressure is 955hPa. It’s expected to make landfall in the Greater Tokyo area soon, as the most intense typhoon to do so in recorded history. pic.twitter.com/SJKs8dWNOI — Sayaka Mori (@sayakasofiamori) September 8, 2019 Faxai made landfall early Monday morning in the coastal city of Chiba, with winds gusting up to 207 km/h. It caused widespread damage and widespread blackouts in Tokyo and the sourrounding areas. One fatality was reported, with at least 30 injured. 非常に強い台風15号は午前３時前に神奈川県の三浦半島付近を通過したあと、関東や静岡県などを暴風域に巻き込みながら東京湾を北上していて、このあと上陸する見込みです。 羽田空港 午前３時すぎの映像です。https://t.co/EJqwN6yUe5#nhk_video pic.twitter.com/qBwgdB85zb — NHKニュース (@nhk_news) September 8, 2019 Typhoon Faxai passed us […]

Meanwhile in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Faxai is affecting Japan with extremely severe winds and torrential rainfall. The currently equivalent CAT3 system will graze Tokyo metro tonight. Typhoon Faxai early on September 8th (8h UTC). Image: Himawari-8. Faxai reached equivalent CAT4 strength late on September 7th and early on 8th, with peak winds of 130 mph – briefly attaining the status of Super Typhoon. It has weakened since, currently an equivalent CAT3 system, with peak winds of 115 mph (as of 11h UTC). Faxai will graze Japan tonight, pushing over Kanagawa Prefecture, pushing over Yokohama and over the greater Tokyo metro. The eye of Faxai is located just SSW of Yokohama as of 18:00 UTC (Sept 8th). Typhoon Faxai making […]

A cutoff low will push across the northern Mediterranean / southern Alpine region today. Combined convective and orographic rainfall is expected, with peak 24h cumulatives locally above 100 mm. Strong southerly winds will advect warm, moist airmass northwards into the region. Expect moderate to locally strong instability to develop, with 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong 30-50 kt mid-level (500 mbar) southwesterly flow will combine with the southerly to southeasterly low level flow to produce a strongly sheared environment with up to 50-60 kt deep-layer shear. Expect severe thunderstorms across the northern Adriatic region, with pre-frontal isolated/discrete supercells, and a squall line with embedded/training supercells in the afternoon (Sunday). Main threats will include torrential rainfall, severe straight line winds and [mesocyclonic] waterspouts […]

Snow lovers rejoice! Here comes the first significant snowfall of the season for the Alps. Expect up to 90 cm at the highest elevations of central Alps. Snowfall is expected across western, northern and central Alps down to approximately 2500 m.

Autumn months are usually pretty active with deep troughs and cyclones across the North Atlantic. Currently, there are two tropical systems in the Atlantic (hurricane Dorian and tropical storm Gabrielle) and both are expected to move into the mid-latitudes in the coming days. As it often happens, these ex-tropical systems transform into an extra-tropical (or post-tropical) storms, acting as intense cyclones. Potential is increasing at least one of them (ex-tropical storm Gabrielle) will be pushed into western Europe and develop a dangerous windstorm by mid-next week! Let’s take a broad look over the Atlantic ocean mid-next week – two deep cyclone / low-pressure systems will are visible, these are ex-hurricane Dorian and ex-tropical storm Gabrielle. Dorian tracks along east US […]

Typhoon Lingling, ongoing between Taiwan and Japan, spectacularly strengthened from a Category 1 to Category 2 equivalent system to a Category 4 equivalent Super Typhoon – in only 6 hours. *Tropical* Spectacular view of the central dense overcast and eye of Super Typhoon #Lingling late on September 5th! More on this system shortly! Video: NOAA RAMMB CIRA pic.twitter.com/QwHW6JFtWF — severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) September 5, 2019 Lingling skyrocketed from a CAT2-equivalent to CAT4-equivalent system in only 6 hours late on September 5th! Indeed, satellite imagery showed impressive structure, with a well-developed, extensive central dense overcast and an impressive, well-defined eye. Peak sustained winds increased from 105 mph (169 km/h) to 130 mph (209 km/h). It tracked directly across Miyakojima island (Japan), where […]

A number of tornadoes have touched down in North Carolina today, as intense supercells arrive within the outer bands of approaching hurricane Dorian. A number of waterspouts have been reported close to the shore or coming ashore, with further tornado warnings inland, as a band of landfalling supercells hit North Carolina. Large wedge waterspouts/tornadoes were reported near Ocean Isle, Myrtle Beach (likely the same one). The outbreak began in the morning even before local twilight and continues as of late mornight local time. While extremely severe straight line winds, storm surge, torrential rainfall and flooding are threats typically associated with hurricanes – they do produce tornadoes too. In particular, intense supercells can populate the outer bands of hurricanes and tornado […]

Hurricane Dorian continues tracking north/northeast and is approaching the coast of South Carolina this morning, Sept 5th. It has re-strengthened back to Category 3 and will be tracking just about 30 miles offshore the coast of the South Carolina and likely make landfall across the outer banks of eastern North Carolina. Central pressure is down to 957 mbar with sustained winds of 115 mph! *UPDATE Sept 5th 08 UTC: Dorian is getting stronger! The latest satellite imagery is indicating the eyewall convection has exploded also across the NW and SW quadrant which are likely responding to intensifying winds closer to the coast! Attached is a comparison of IR satellite scan in the time span of the past 2.5 hours – […]