Severe Weather Europe

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large trough / upper low persists over the south-central Europe, while upper ridge remains over the north, east and southeast Europe. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for NE Romania, N Moldova, W Ukraine into NE Poland with threat for severe storms, capable of producing torrential / excessive rainfall, large hail and severe winds. Widespread convective activity is expected within the strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment. Slow moving storms should strongly enhance flash floods threat. ENH risk has been issued for NE Switzerland, W Austria and S Germany with threat for excessive rainfall with enhanced flooding threat. 100-150 mm of accumulated rainfall in locally possible due to persisting N flow combined […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Strong upper ridge persists across N Europe and Arctic region while a large trough / low remains over south-central Europe. A shallow upper low is centered over the Black Sea. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for E Serbia, SE Hungary, W Romania and NW Bulgaria with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes. A good overlap of rather strong instability and shear should allow well-organized storms, while given the enhanced ESE near-surface inflow winds, rotating storms are also likely. SLGT risk has been issued for NE Poland, SW Belarus into W Ukraine, N MOldova and NE Romania with threat for severe […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Strong ridge persists across N/E Europe while deep trough / low is located over west-central and SW Europe. Another upper low is centered over Turkey. At surface, a stalled front remains over the E Europe. DISCUSSION ENH risk has been issued for N Turkey with threat for severe winds, very large hail and torrential rainfall. Another day of widespread severe storms is expected under moderate shear and strong instability. SLGT risk has been issued for E Poland into SW Belarus, W-CNTRL Ukraine, Moldova and E Romania for severe storms, capable of producing large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. SLGT risk has been issued for N Italy, N Adriatic into Slovenia and Croatia, W Hungary […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS Upper ridge remains over N Europe while a large upper low with several short-waves is located over south-central Europe. One core moves across W Mediterranean, another one over Greece. A stationary surface front is extending across the ENE Europe. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for N Romania and Moldova into W-CNTRL Ukraine, S-SW Belarus and E Poland with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large hail and tornadoes. Widespread convective activity is expected along the stationary front as favorable shear and helicity overlap with rather strong instability. With easterly flow to the east of the boundary, enhanced SREH would develop tornado threat as well. ENH / SLGT […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A deep upper low is centered over S Italy and moving east. One short-wave moves across E Balkan peninsula and across N Iberia. A strong ridge persists across N Europe. DISCUSSION ENH / SLGT risks have been issued for central Ukraine into S Belarus with treat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall, large to very large hail and tornadoes. Widespread convective storms are expected across the warm sector ahead of the front, fueled by strong instability and moderate shear. Enhanced LL helicity should also support threat for tornadoes. SLGT risk has been issued for parts of W Russia with threat for severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Again, diurnal driven […]

An upper ridge is strengthening over north Europe and will be at its strongest during the weekend. It brings very warm, summer-like temperatures to parts of north Europe. Daytime highs will be up to mid-20s. 500 mbar geopotential height anomaly on midday Friday. Note also the broad area of low pressure across the southern half of Europe, with multiple embedded upper lows. GFS model guidance. Maps: Wxcharts.com. Temperatures in parts of Norway, Sweden and Finland will reach above 20s, with daytime highs reaching into mid-20s locally. That is quite exceptionally warm for now, up to about 15 °C higher than the long-term average! 2 m temperature anomaly. GFS model guidance. Maps: Wxcharts.com.

The heat wave across southern and western parts of the Iberian peninsula continues through mid this week. Daytime highs reached 37 °C on Monday and around 35 °C on Tuesday. Two more days of hot weather for this period is expected before cooling arrives with the frontal system on Friday. Daytime highs reached up to near 35 °C yesterday: Beja (Portugal) reached 34.0 °C while Badajoz (Spain) reached 34.6 °C. These are extremely high temperatures for this period, up to 12-15 °C hotter than average! Peak temperatures across the Iberian peninsula on Tuesday, May 14th. Map: Meteociel. Two more days (Wednesday and Thursday) of hot weather are expected across south-southwest parts of the Iberian peninsula while cooler weather arrives on […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large deep upper low is centered over the N Mediterranean, while the upper ridge over W Europe expands into N Europe and Arctic region. Upper ridge also intensifies over Turkey and Black sea. DISCUSSION SLGT risk has been issued for S and E Balkan peninsula into W Ukraine and S Belarus with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential / excessive rainfall and marginally large hail. SLGT risk has been issued for W Russia with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large hail. MRGL risks have been issued for Tyrrhenian sea into S Italy and NW Turkey with isolated threat for severe storms, capable of […]

Thunderstorms hit the Lapland in the far northern parts of Finland, Norway and extreme NW Russia. This is far inside the Arctic circle, at latitudes 68° to 70°N. Map of lightning activity in 48h on May 12th-14th. Map: Blitzortung. While we often see thunderstorms across the southern and central parts of north Europe – even occasional severe thunderstorms – it is rare to see thunderstorms so far north – and in particular in spring months.

The heat wave across southern and western parts of the Iberian peninsula continues. Daytime highs reached 37 °C on Monday and several more days of very hot weather for this period is expected. We take a closer look. We are in the middle of the ongoing heat wave in parts of Portugal and Spain. Daytime highs reached as high as 36 °C yesterday: Montijo (southern Portugal) reached 36.1 °C, as did Badajoz (Spain). Many stations in Portugal pushed above 30 °C as did many stations in southern, western and northwestern Spain. These are extremely high temperatures for this period, up to 12-15 °C hotter than average! Peak temperatures across the Iberian peninsula on Monday, May 13th. Map: Meteociel. Two more […]

A strong upper ridge will amplify north across Fennoscandia towards this weekend. It will bring unseasonally warm weather to parts of Scandinavia with daytime highs in the mid-20s! We take a closer look. 500 mbar geopotential height anomaly. GFS model guidance. Maps: Wxcharts.com. The upper ridge strengthens across Scandinavia and the Norwegian sea and pushes over Scandinavia during the weekend. Temperatures will indeed be very high for this time. The 850 mbar level temperature anomaly will be up to 10 °C, much warmer than average indeed. The 2 m temperature will be up to 15 °C warmer than average: daytime highs across parts of northern Europe will be push up to mid-20s! We will be keeping an eye on the […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A large deep upper low is centered over the Mediterranean and the W Balkan peninsula while strong upper ridges remain over Russia and over W Europe. DISCUSSION MDT / ENH risks have been issued for the NE Adriatic region with threat for severe to extremely severe downslope winds, locally in excess of 120-140 km/h. Peak gusts at the most exposed areas over Kvarner region could again exceed 150 km/h! SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding the MDT / ENH risk across the NE Adriatic region and W Balkan with threat for severe winds in excess of 90 km/h. W Bosnia is expected to get more rain for more local flooding. SLGT risk has […]

Persistent southerly flow ahead of the cutoff low in the central Mediterranean is pushing a moderate, but constant amount of Saharan dust across the Mediterranean into Greece and parts of eastern Europe. The dust load in the skies over Greece will be moderate compared to the big dust events in previous weeks. Expect the dust to push into eastern Europe by Tuesday afternoon. The flow of dust from north Africa over Greece will persist until at least Wednesday. All dust maps by University of Athens – SKIRON model.

Major floods are already ongoing in parts of north Italy, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Much more rainfall is expected in the next 3-4 days as the causative cutoff low persists over the region. Central Italy More rainfall is expected along the eastern slopes of the central Apennines, central Italy by the end of Tuesday. Up to 100 mm and locally more rainfall is indicated. Expect further flooding and landslides! Western and southern Balkans Persistent rainfall is expected on Monday and Tuesday across the eastern slopes of the Dinarides in northern Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, with up to 150-180 mm of further rainfall expected. Continuing flooding, locally quite significant and damaging is expected. Major rainfall is also expected in […]

Storm to hurricane force Bora winds are expected today across parts of western Slovenia and northwestern Croatia. Extremely severe Bura winds gusting in excess of 150 km/h are expected across the Kvarner region of NW Croatia. Exposed areas and places with the most favourable terrain configuration may experience gusts in excess of 180 km/h! Meanwhile, western Slovenia (Vipava valley in particular) will receive somewhat lesser, but still severe to extremely severe Burja up to 120 km/h or slightly more locally. Expect the winds to weaken on Tuesday morning. Peak wind gusts in m/s across the Adriatic region. WRF-NMM model by Meteoadriatic. Maps: Meteoadriatic. The locals are used to this kind of Burja/Bura winds, but keep it in mind if you […]

Parts of the Iberian peninsula are in the middle of a spring heat wave. Daytime highs are 10-14 °C higher than average for this period. Parts of Portugal hit 35 °C on Sunday. Peak temperatures across the Iberian peninsula on Sunday, May 12th, 2019! Peak temperatures: Montijo (Por) 35.5 °C, Beja (Por) 35.3 °C, Montes Chaos (Por) 35.2 °C, Andujar (Spa) 35.2 °C. Map: Meteociel. Hot weather will continue until Friday, when a cutoff low pushes in from the Atlantic and the weather cools quite abruptly. Daytime highs across much of Portugal and NW and SW Spain will remain between 30 and 35 °C in the next four days. Indeed very hot weather for the middle of May! Daytime highs […]

Severe Weather Outlooks FAQ SYNOPSIS A powerful ridge is located over western Europe while a large deep upper low is rotating over the south-central Mediterranean. Strong ridge also persists over NW Russia. A deep trough remains over the NW Atlantic. DISCUSSION HIGH risk has been issued for NE Adriatic region (Kvarner region) with threat for extremely severe winds in excess of 150 km/h. A powerful downslope Bora winds setup is unfolding, resulting in very intense and damaging winds to fresh vegetation. The most exposed areas should experience winds towards 180 km/h or even higher across the higher elevations! MDT / ENH risks have been issued for areas surrounding the HIGH risk including NW Croatia, NE Adriatic and SW Slovenia with […]

As expected, extremely high temperatures were reached in NW Russia today. Locations as far as almost 65° N pushed above 30 °C! 31 °C in Koynas, Arkhangelsk Oblast at 64.8 °N, just south of the Arctic circle 13:10 UTC! Map: Meteociel. A corridor of exceptionally warm airmass is reaching far into NW Russia, with daytime highs pushing up to 30-31 °C! This is exceptionally warm weather for this region, about 25-30 °C above average for this time. Temperature anomaly map for Europe today. The temperature anomaly indicates the difference between the actual temperature and the long term average for the date. Note the extremely high positive temperature anomaly in NW Russia! GFS model guidance. Map: Wxcharts. Temperatures will remain very […]

The extended major rainfall event over the western Balkans and parts of the Apennine peninsula has already started – up to 300 mm or more rainfall is expected locally by the second half of next week. We take a closer look. The cutoff upper low that will produce the rainfall event is already fully formed as of Sunday morning, positioned over central Italy. The cutof upper low will persist over the region for much of the next week, before drifting eastwards and gradually filling during the next weekend. It will cause persistent convective and orographic rainfall over the Dinaride mountain range in the western Balkans and parts of the central Apennines. Cutoff low position early on Tuesday. Maps: Pivotalweather.com. Parts […]

As expected, north Italy was hit by severe thunderstorms yesterday. Intense multicell and supercell thunderstorms were reported across regions Piemonte, Lombardy and Veneto. Outlook DAY 1 (valid: 11/05/2019) Thunderstorms produced mainly severe hailstorms across the region, with numerous locations reporting thick blankets of small to marginally large hail. Notably, a severe hailstorm covered the Malpensa Airport in Milano with a thick layer of hail – the airport was closed for 40 minutes. Malpensa Airport, Milan. Photo: InMeteo. Malpensa Airport, Milan. Photo: Vola Milano Malpensa MXP. While frontal storms were mostly multicells, several discrete prefrontal supercells developed on the Po plain ahead of the cold front, producing impressive storm structure and some storm chaser convergence. Isolated classic supercell near Montagnana, north […]