Severe Weather Europe

An outbreak of cold airmass is moving towards the central Europe tonight where the cold front and secondary cyclogenesis over the northern Mediterranean will bring a new round of snow to the region. Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina will see significant snowfall until late on Friday.As the coming cold front passes across the Alps, secondary cyclogenesis takes place over the Ligurian sea, forming a rather weak Genoa low. The low persists over the region, pushing into the Tyrrhenian sea, while another, very shallow cyclone forms over the Adriatic sea. The frontal passage and cutoff low bring the first significant snowfall of the winter to parts of Slovenia. Slovenia will likely receive significant snowfall down into lower elevations, except for […]

Weather patterns this winter have been supporting ridging over the north Atlantic and western Europe for weeks. But this is gradually changing this week as ridge is retreating towards the west and troughs / cyclones with cold fronts are being pushed into western Europe as well. One system reaches the British Isles this Friday, bringing some snow into the region. Here is the GFS model probability map of falling snow through Thursday night over parts of Ireland while some additional chances for Scotland and England come on Friday afternoon during the front passage. Comparison of various models (GFS, HIRLAM, ARPEGE, ICON-EU) regarding the snow depth through Thursday night and Friday evening. Indeed not much of snow, likely only a few […]

Global models are now in very good agreement about the cold weather through second half of January, the results of Polar Vortex split earlier this months are coming into effect for the lower troposphere. Cold winter weather should spread across the western half of Europe as a favorable pattern establishes after this weekend. Ridge over the northwest Atlantic with deep troughs across western towards southwestern Europe should bring both very cold and snowy weather locally. The first event will be a cyclone passage across the UK and Ireland this Friday, arriving just a day after the cold outbreak across the region. Despite the quite strong warm advection associated with the frontal system, the airmass should remain quite cold! Models are […]

Finally, cold weather is also here for the western half of Europe, especially Scotland, England, Ireland and Benelux. A rather strong outbreak of cold airmass is being advected into the region on the rear side of a deep trough / cyclone across northern Europe. Meridionally transported flow pushes Arctic airmass through the western Europe towards south. Very cold airmass will start spreading from north to south tonight, reaching south Scotland around midnight. Very cold northerly winds will push cold weather south into Ireland and England until the late morning hours. Advection then continues into Benelux, France and Germany later tomorrow. 850 mb temperature should be quite cold over the western Europe, locally -8 to -9 °C at this level (approx. […]

An intense cutoff low is moving across the eastern Mediterranean region. It will bring intense precipitation, mostly snowfall to parts of Turkey over the next 36 hours. A deep cutoff low is moving across eastern Mediterranean and will track along the southern coast of Turkey from early on Tuesday to late on Wednesday. Model guidance indicates an unusually deep surface low, with central MSLP around 990 mbar or even slightly below that. Expect major precipitation across parts of Turkey, including northwest Turkey, southern Turkey and in particular central-eastern Turkey, north of Adana. Large amounts of snow at higher elevations, up to 120-150 cm locally. Consult the maps below for details. Also expect severe to locally very severe winds over the […]

We are now in mid January and the effects of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (short: SWW) and Polar vortex split are becoming visible as strong blocking over the Arctic region is resulting in strongly dynamic pattern in the mid-latitudes. The current strong ridge over the north Atlantic should persist until the weekend when a significant pattern change will likely occur. The ridge over the Arctic will intensify while the northern Atlantic ridge retreats west towards North America. This brings development of troughs with cyclones also towards western Europe. As a result, widespread cooling will take place for large parts of Europe and enhance chances for snowfall events. The pattern overview for the weekend into early next week indicates weakening of […]

The Alps are in for another snowstorm in the next 48 hours, through Tuesday. Up to 80-120 cm of snow, possibly up to 150 cm, is expected locally. Peak amounts of snow are expected in Switzerland. The persistent pattern with northerly and northwesterly flow continues and more intense stau-effect snowfall across the northern Alps. Another round of intense snowfall will impact the northern Alps from southwestern Switzerland to central Austria through Tuesday. Maximum amounts of snow are expected across southern Switzerland, where up to 120-150 cm of fresh snow is expected, locally possibly even more. Also expect up to about 70-90 cm, locally over 100 cm in western Tyrol. The area that received enormous amounts of snow over the past […]

The pattern across Europe will continue supporting a meridional flow across our continent and develop a new Arctic outbreak through early next week. With strong ridge over the Atlantic, a very deep trough will move across north, east and central Europe from Monday to Wednesday and bring another round of very cold airmass and new snowfall in many areas. Including very intense snowstorm into the Alps. Here is a the day-to-day pattern evolution with strong Arctic airmass advection across the northern Europe on Monday, followed by very cold airmass spread across eastern Europe on Tuesday and further across the southeast Europe / Balkan peninsula on Wednesday. This outbreak will bring several system into interest across various parts of Europe, so […]

Another major snowstorm is ahead for the northern Alps, especially across the northern and western Austria, southern Germany and the east-central Switzerland. With already an extreme amount of snow depth is many regions (locally 300-500 cm based on the latest reports), an additional 100-120 cm (or locally even more) of fresh snow is expected through Tuesday morning, Jan 15th. Life-threatening situation with dangerous snow avalanche threat will worsen once the snowfall intensifies this weekend. The pattern supportive of a very intense and excessive snowfall over the northern Alps will again establish this weekend. A very strong, persistent northerly / northwesterly meridional flow develops in between a deep trough over eastern half of europe and a strong ridging across the western […]

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More heavy snowfall is expected over the next four days in areas already buried in meters of snow. Large areas will likely receive over half a meter of snow, while some areas may well see over 1 m of fresh snow by Tuesday morning. The persistent northerly and northwesterly meridional flow continues, pushing more Arctic maritime airmass into the Alps. Further heavy stau-effect snowfall is expected, with a particularly intense episode of snowfall expected on Sunday and Monday. 4 successive waves of heavy snowfall (violet) for northern Alps over the next 4 days. ICON-EU model guidance. Maps: Wxcharts.eu Over 50 cm of fresh snow is expected across a large area in Switzerland and Austria, extending also into the extreme NW […]

Here we go again! A new round of Adriatic sea-effect snow is coming for parts of central and southern Italy this week. Let us take a closer look. Adriatic sea surface temperature forecast for January 9. Map: Adriatic Forecasting System. Strong Bora / Gregale winds develop over the Adriatic sea in the wake of the Arctic blast and the cutoff low in the Ionian sea / extreme southern Italy. The Adriatic sea surface temperature is still around 13-15 °C in its central part, while the airmass moving across it will be at 0-4 °C. New snow is expected along most of the Apennines, from Emilia Romagna to Calabria. Expect 10-20 cm of fresh snow at higher elevations, locally up to […]

The northern Alps are buried in thick fresh snow, literally meters in some places. The situation is critical in many areas, with extreme avalanche danger. Indeed, a number of fatalities related to avalanches have already been reported. Further episodes of intense snowfall are expected in the second half of week and likely to persist into next week. We take a closer look. As the synoptic pattern persists, it sustains the meridional flow of Arctic maritime airmass from the north towards the south. Persistent stau-effect snowfall is ongoing. Expect it to persist through Wednesday and Thursday. A pause is expected on Friday and Saturday, with some places not receiving any snow and others experiencing somewhat more moderate snowfall. Stau-effect snowfall across […]

Southeastern Europe remains on track for a blast of snowfall in the next 24-48 hours. Montenegro, Albania, Greece and FYR Macedonia are in for locally very intense snowfall. Up to 30-60 cm of snow is expected at higher elevations, locally up to 100 cm. A cutoff low has formed in the northern Mediterranean, and has moved across the Tyrrhenian sea over southern Italy and the Ionian sea. It will stall there and produce heavy stau-effect snowfall across parts of southeastern Europe over the next 24-36 hours. Heavy snowfall is expected in the mountainous terrain of Montenegro, Albania, Greece and FYR Macedonia, with 30-60 cm of fresh snow over a wide area and locally up to 100 cm. Meanwhile, locations at […]

The upcoming Mistral windstorm will kick up very significant waves across the western-central and central Mediterranean: locally over 5 m! The western coast of Sardinia will get waves up to 4-7 m high from tonight until Thurday afternoon. Major waves also expected on Menorca (Balearic Islands) from tomorrow morning until at least Thursday morning, up to 3-6 m high. High waves also expected in northern Tunisia from tomorrow morning until Thursday morning, also up to 3-6 m high. Expect waves up to 3-6 m high along the western and southern coast of Sicily, major waves also expected on Malta. Beginning on Wednesday afternoon, major waves begin also along the western coast of Greece. Significant wave height across the western half […]

Intense Mistral winds will develop along the southern coast of France and over the northwestern Mediterranean in the wake of the cold front, pushing into the Mediterranean. Peak wind gusts will exceed severe and potentially very severe threshold. A significant Mistral windstorm builds up in the wake of the cold front and secondary Geona low cyclogenesis over the northern-northwestern Mediterranean. Strong N-NW flow (Mistral) establishes into the N-NW Mediterranean, pushing southwards and then eastwards along the southern sector of the forming Genoa cutoff low. Gusts up to 89-90, possibly 110 km/h along the coast of S France. Up to 110-130 km/h in eastern Sardinia. This low will cause a major precipitation event in southeastern Europe. Peak wind gusts on Tuesday […]

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Parts of Europe are in deep winter weather as current pattern is producing outbreaks of very cold airmass across the east-central Europe. Lots of snow has been reported across the northern Alps, parts of Balkan peninsula, central Italy and even south Italy, Greece, Turkey and Middle East. Mor winter weather is expected this week, even in other areas than until now. Lets take a detailed look over a day-to-day pattern evolution through the next seven days. Tuesday, Jan 8th A powerful ridge dominates the northern Atlantic, shutting down the zonal flow towards the continental Europe. On its northwest side, a strong warm advection is being pushes towards Iceland and Greenland. Over the east/southeast Europe, a new outbreak of very cold […]

It has been a week of intense and excessive snowfall across the northern Alps, more precisely across the eastern Switzerland and northern Austria. Locally, 100-200 cm of snow has been reported from several areas. A classic Stau effect has developed and maintaining intense snowfall has lead into extreme amounts of snow. Unfortunately, no break is coming this week as yet another powerful Arctic cold outbreak pushes towards the central Europe and bring continuing moisture advection towards the northern Alps. A life-threatening situation with high risk for snow avalanches develops for some of the Alpine valleys. The pattern evolving through mid this week reveals a strong dipole with a very powerful upper ridge over the northern Atlantic, completely blocking the zonal […]

2019 SWE Meteor Shower Calendar – so you know when and where to look for the best meteor shows. We compiled this Meteor Shower Calendar after the first major meteor shower of the year – the Quadrantids. Observing conditions were perfect, with the peak over Europe and without moonlight interference. Indeed, the Quadrantids produced an amazing show! But there are many more meteor showers in 2019: Shower Peak night Rate* Conditions Quadrantids Jan 3/4 80-120 excellent Lyrids April 22/23 15 poor Eta Aquarids May 5/6 60 excellent Southern Delta Aquarids July 29/30 20 excellent Perseids August 12/13 80 poor Draconids October 8/9 outburst? poor Orionids October 21/22 20 poor Leonids November 17/18 15 poor Geminids December 13/14 120 poor Ursids […]