Up to 100 mm of rainfall, locally more, is indicated by high-res models for extreme NE Spain and S France by early tomorrow morning. Expect local flooding. Follow ongoing storms on radar: Spain France A cutoff cold core upper low is forming over the Iberian peninsula, with thunderstorms ongoing along the cold front in the eastern part of the peninsula and extreme western Mediterranean. Favourable south-north storm motion in extreme northeastern Spain and southern France will result in accumulation of rainfall from successive storms, locally up to 100 mm or more. Expect local flooding. Moderate instability with up to about 1000 J/kg MLCAPE overlaps favourable with strong 30-50 kt deep-layer shear. Moderately favourable vertical veering wind profiles provide up to
A windy day is ahead for extreme southwestern UK, the English Channel and northwestern France, with gale force winds gusting up to 90-110 km/h. Another, stronger windstorm is coming tomorrow! A small cyclone rapidly forms from a short wave trough over the Atlantic and deepens south of Ireland, moving eastwards into the English Channel. Expect gale force winds, gusting up to 90-110 km/h in southern Cornwall, Devon, Hampshire and West Sussex as well as the Isle of Wight. Expect similarly strong gusts in extreme north of Brittany and Normandy, France. Expect choppy seas south of Ireland and into the English Channel. Pressure map for late this morning.Maps: Wxcharts.eu. Strongest wind gusts in late afternoon today. Maps: Wxcharts.eu. Strongest wind gusts
September 2017 was the planet’s fourth warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and NASA this week. The only warmer Septembers came during 2015, 2016, and 2014. At the same time, European continent was realtively cool in September with near or even coolder than long-term average monthly temperature, however.
Good morning Europe! A look across our continent this morning revealing an interesting temperatures affected by various features of interest; warm/mild conditions across western Europe as large ccyclone sits over N Atlantic and resulting in southerlies from SW to W Europe, locally near 15°C in S parts of British Isles. Cold in Scandinavia under the strenghtening ridge / high pressure system and deep cyclone over Russia – morning temps were even below -5°C in central Sweden and Norway. In between, a gradually weakening ridge across the rest of Europe is resulting in cool morning with locally near zero °C lowest temperatures. Cooler temperatures also across W Spain in the wake of an upper low moving across the Iberian peninsula; an
Models are still on track for a significant windstorm over Ireland and the United Kingdom on Friday and Saturday. GFS model guidance for mean sea level pressure and peak wind gusts late Friday/early Saturday. Map: TropicalTidbits.com. Both GFS and ECMWF are still in good agreement for the arrival of a deep cyclone towards Ireland and UK. While the exact track and intensity is still fairly uncertain so far ahead, both models indicate a deep cyclone with central mean sea level pressure down to 960 – 975 mbar. Current GFS model guidance indicates a very deep cyclone with central pressure approaching 960 mbar or even below that mark, and peak wind gusts of 120-130 km/h around landfall. Map: Wxcharts.eu. Current ECMWF
Models are in agreement for some good amount of rain across Portugal and especially Spain today as a rather large upper low crosses the Iberian peninsula from W to E into western Mediterranean. Locally 50-80mm will be possible through the next 24 hours, more likely across S and NE Spain. In moderate shear and instability, some severe weather will also be possible where storms will be capable of producing strong winds, torrential rainfall and marginally large hail. Follow up the evolution through our website sub-pages: Radar imagery Spain Radar imagery Portugal Satellity imagery
Looking at various video reports on Ophelia raging along the coast and inland Ireland on Monday: the windstorm packed winds gusting up to 191 km/h, resulting in damage and coastal flooding.
For two days, smoke from Iberian fires combined with Saharan dust to produce eerie skies over western and parts of central Europe. Tomorrow morning the smoke and dust will have shifted. Here is the forecast, be on the lookout for hazy skies tomorrow morning. Expect significant concentrations of smoke and Saharan dust over northwestern France, across southern Sweden, eastern Germany, northern and western Poland into northern Belarus. See maps below for a more detailed forecast of smoke and Saharan dust, including areas of lower concentrations. Smoke from Iberian fires (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service). Maximum concentrations expected over NW Iberian peninsula, NW France, extreme south of UK, north Poland, southern Latvia and northern Belarus. Suspended Saharan dust (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service).
GALLERY: Smoke from wildfires in northern Spain, Portugal blocks out the Sun over UK and parts of France
The skies over parts of United Kingdom and France turned eerie dark orange under a thick smoke that blocked out the Sun. The scene prompted propmpted science fiction references, including Blade Runner and Star Wars. What everyone was seeing was thick smoke from fires raging over northern Spain and Portugal, blown across the Bay of Biscay into UK and France by favourable winds. Some of the most impressive views: Smoke and deep orange sunset over Stansted airport. Photo: Marco Terrosi. London. Photo: TheFootballGram_ @TheFootballGram. London. Photo: @bicknaker TW. London. Photo: Kevin @TencetB TW. London. Photo: Oliver Sadie @OliverSadie TW. London. Photo: Matthew Claaargghk. London. Photo: Filosofizer @Filosofizer TW. Dim orange skies over Caen, NW France. 5 pm, Oct 16. Photo:
A new intense windstorm possible for UK and Ireland later this week – GFS and ECMWF models in good agreement on new tropical development
GFS and ECMWF model guidance are currently in good agreement on the new tropical depression that may affect the British Isles and Ireland. Invest 92L, as the depression is currently designated, may strengthen into a strong storm to hurricane force cyclone as it crosses the Atlantic and approaches Ireland and UK. GFS model guidance for mean sea level pressure and peak wind gusts late Friday/early Saturday. Map: TropicalTidbits.com. At this time, GFS model guidance indicates a very deep cyclone with central pressure approaching 960 mbar and peak wind gusts of 120-130 km/h around potential landfall. ECMWF indicates an only slightly weaker system at 970 mbar central pressure. Comparison between GFS and ECMWF model guidance in mean sea level pressure. Maps:
BeNeLux, north Germany, parts of Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Baltic states under thick smoke from fires in north Spain and Portugal today
Residents of northern Germany, Benelux, southern Scandinavia and as far as the Baltic states awoke to a hazy sky this morning, with the Sun glowing a subdued reddish orange. What everyone in the region is seeing is the thick smoke from massive fires in northern Spain and Portugal, which nearly blocked out the Sun in western France and the United Kingdom yesterday. The northeasterly flow pushed the smoke over northern central Europe by this morning. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service biomass aerosol optical depth at 550 mm forecast for this morning, indicating the extent of smoke from fires in the Iberian peninsula. Satellite imagery clearly shows the smoke persisting over northern France, BeNeLux and northern Germany as well as most of
Interestingly, latest GFS model guidance indicates development of a new tropical depression that may affect the British Isles and Ireland. The system, designated Invest 92L is currently located east of the Bahamas and will track ENE-wards towards across the Atlantic in the next 72-96 hours. Current model guidance suggests the system could produce strong storm to hurricane winds in the vicinity of Ireland towards the end of the week. While it is too early for detailed forecasts and future model runs may change significantly, the system definitely warrants monitoring. We will be providing further updates.
Ophelia affecting central and northern UK, moving northeast; update and recap of today’s events (19:20 UTC)
Cyclone Ophelia is moving northeastward, affecting parts of the UK and Ireland with storm force winds. It is gradually weakening. Peak winds of post-tropical cyclone Ophelia have now shifted over the northern and central part of the British Isles, peak gusts of up to 145 km/h reported in Scotland, 136 km/h in Wales. Current peak wind gusts across the British Isles and Ireland. Map: Meteociel.fr. Short recap of Ophelia’s landfall Hurricane Ophelia transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone late yesterday / early today, heading for landfall in SW Ireland in the early afternoon. A sting jet likely developed just before landfall, with peak wind gusts reavh 191 km/h in Ireland’s southernmost point, Fastnet Rock. Satellite analysis of post-tropical storm Ophelia rapidly
People in much of UK and western France woke up this morning to an eerie sight: the sky covered in thick orange and brownish smoke, with the Sun nearly or completely obscured. some compared it even to a Solar eclipse! Smoke plume being advected NNE-wards ahead of the post-tropical cyclone Ophelia early afternoon today, October 16. Image: NASA Terra / MODIS. Parts of Spain and Portugal are experiencing extreme fires, caused by a combination of a dry spring and summer and likely arson. The thick smoke was advected by southerly winds into the Bay of Biscay, northwestern France (Brittany) and across the United Kingdom. Residents of this area awoke to a dark orange and brown sky, with the Sun either
Numerous wildfires are currently raging in Portugal and NW Spain. There are approximately 440 ongoing fires in Portugal, 26 of them major, being fought by over 3700 firefighters. There are over 130 ongoing fires in Spain, at least 15 in Galicia alone. The fires in Galicia may merge into a single large fire, warns regional government president Alberto Nunez Feijoo. Fatalities have been reported in both countries. The fires are fueled by very dry vegetation, result of a very dry spring and summer and strong winds, gusting at up to 90 km/h locally. Arson is likely playing a significant role too. We have received numerous reports from our readers, which we post below. We welcome further reports on this very
Reptile and amphibian communities exhibit a promising level of resilience to agricultural lands. In a new study, herpetologists compared forested areas to manicured citrus orchards and reclaimed orchard forests in Belize. Further intriguing discoveries were made when the Category 1 Hurricane Earl hit the study site.
Post-tropical storm Ophelia made landfall in southern Ireland early this afternoon with storm to hurricane force winds. The extreme SW Ireland was likely hit by a sting jet. Damage has been reported from a number of locations. Some preliminary peak wind gust speed values so far: 191 km/h – Fastnet Lighthouse 155 km/h – Roches Point 138 km/h – Waterford Airport 135 km/h – Bouee 60023 (off SSE Ireland) 124 km/h – Cork Airport 119 km/h – Valentia 119 km/h – Sherkin Island Peak wind gust field is now shifting ENE-wards: expect the strongest winds in SE-E Ireland over the next few hours. Up to 135 km/h, stronger at higher elevations and in exposed areas. AROME model guidance for peak
Post-tropical storm Ophelia makes landfall in southern Ireland early this afternoon – peak winds reported so far: 191 km/h at Fastnet lighthouse, the most southerly point in Ireland, likely associated with a sting jet. 155 km/h reported at Roches Point, S Ireland. 120-135 km/h reported so far at other locations along the S coast of Ireland. Some preliminary values so far (note that peak winds in S-SE-E Ireland, as well as W Wales are expected later during landfall): 191 km/h – Fastnet Lighthouse 158 km/h – Glenanne (UK) 155 km/h – Roches Point 135 km/h – Bouee 60023 (off SSE Ireland) 124 km/h – Cork Airport 119 km/h – Valentia 119 km/h – Sherkin Island Keep in mind this data
Peak wind gusts of 191 km/h / 103 kt have already been reported at Fastnet Lighthouse, SW Ireland at 9:56 UTC! This is an extremely high value, more than most high-resolution models indicated and indicates a sting jet is likely indeed present. Peak wind gusts along the southern coast of Ireland may well approach 200 km/h. This is a very dangerous situation! Satellite analysis of post-tropical storm Ophelia rapidly approaching Ireland this morning. Notice the branches of “banded cloud head” pushed towards the SW Ireland, indicating that the sting jet structure is likely developed! Stay alert for dangerous weather along SW-S-SE Ireland until 3pm today! Source: EUMETSAT Read forecast on Ophelia over Ireland today here!
Post-tropical cyclone Ophelia is rapidly approaching Ireland for landfall over the southern part of the island within the next few hours. Expect a very severe and damaging windstorm with winds gusting at 130-160 km/h, up to 190 km/h at higher elevations and in exposed areas. This is a potentially very dangerous situation! Update [9:47 UTC]: 170 km/h gust already reported at Fastnet lighthouse! Satellite analysis of post-tropical storm Ophelia rapidly approaching Ireland this morning. Notice the “banded cloud head” pushed towards the SW Ireland, indicating a sting jet structure likely – this will pose threat for very damaging extremely severe winds with locally above 150 km/h gusts. Image: EUMETSAT. Ophelia has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone, still packing hurricane-force winds.
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22. jaanuari ekstreemumid 2008-2018
Täna Tallinnas kõige soojem on olnud 5,0°C (1984) ja külmem -26,3°C (1941).
Täna Tartus kõige soojem on olnud 4,7°C (1993) ja külmem -29,6°C (1907).