Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere surged at a record-breaking speed in 2016 to the highest level in 800,000 years, according to a new report. The abrupt changes in the atmosphere witnessed in the past 70 years are without precedent.
With a developed strong pattern dividing Europe in two halfs, a very cold airmass behind a deep upper low moving across ESE Europe will spread over east-central Europe, Balkan peninsula and N Turkey, therefore resulting in much colder days than average – 4-8 °C below normal! In response to a strenghtening upper ridge / high pressure across N Atlantic and W Europe, much warmer weather should be expected over British Isles and Iceland, locally 5-10 °C higher than average – especially in the higher elevations as lowlands could be trapped under inversion layer and cooler temperatures. Upper ridge will gradually move towards central Europe tomorrow and advect warmer temps into the region pushing colder airmass into Black Sea / Turkey
An interesting pattern is developing across Europe with a strenghtening upper ridge across N Atlantic and western Europe while a very deep upper level low is moving across ESE Europe. In between, a cold polar airmass has been advecting across central Europe and Balkan peninsula and should continue until Wednesday. Cold frosty mornings are expected and some snow as well, especially where northerlies will advect moisture into the mountainous terrain e.g. N Alps, Tatras mountains, Carpathian mointains, parts of Turkey… This strong pattern should gradually weaken by Wednesday when upper low moves further east into central Europe and deep upper low moves off the SE Europe. Stay tuned for further updates on the evolution of the pattern.
Latest GFS model guidance showing some fresh snow is likely to accumate across parts of eastern Europe in response to a very cold airmass advection between deep trough to the east and ridge to the west. Some snow will be possible in parts of Poland and Baltic countries, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Ukraine, N Austria and Romania. Locally a few cm of fresh snow is possible, while higher elevations (1000m ASL and above) could see up to 30 cm of fresh snow until Tuesday. Strong NW flow into Norway and Sweden should also result on some good amounts of fresh snow through the next two days. An extensive pool of polar cold airmass will spread across east-central Europe and SE
A powerful outbreak of cold airmass is spreading across east-central Europe today, associated with the very deep cyclone moving from Baltic States towards the Black Sea. An extensive pool of cool polar airmass will spread across large part of Europe over the next few days with expected daily temperatures well below average for this time of the year, approx. 6-10 °C below average. Many areas are likely to see frost in the mornings until Thursday. Models are well on track for establishment of a strong pattern over Europe with a broad low pressure area over the eastern half and a strengthening ridge over the western half. Meridional flow will establish, with cool airmass advecting from the polar regions into much
A major wave of cool polar airmass will spread across central, eastern and southeastern Europe over the next few days, starting tomorrow. Expect temperatures well below average for this time of the year, up to 6-10 °C below average. Many areas are likely to see frost in the morning. Models are still on track for establishment of a strong pattern over Europe with a broad low pressure area over the eastern half and a strengthening ridge over the western half. Meridional flow will establish, with cool airmass advecting from the polar regions into much of central, eastern and southeastern Europe. Temperatures will be up to up to 6-10 °C below average. Temperature anomaly (difference from average) at 850 mbar level.
Strong winds, gusting up to 130-150 km/h km/h and more at higher elevations are expected tomorrow across parts of Germany, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria. A trough associated with a deep low over eastern Batic region forms a secondary low, quickly moving across the southern Baltic, Poland and into Belarus tomorrow. The secondary low will cause a strong windstorm across parts of central Europe: winds gusting up to 110-130 km/h, across parts of Germany, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria. Current high-res model gudiance suggests wind gusts up to 130-150 km/h in parts of eastern Germany and NW Czech Republic. Peak wind gusts on Sunday (AROME model guidance). Map: Wxcharts.eu.
A major outbreak of cold arctic airmass over much of Europe north of the Alps and well into southeastern Europe as far south as Greece is coming. Temperature analysis across Europe this morning, October 26. Much of western Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, France, BeNeLux, the British Isles and Ireland and southern Scandinavia is under the influence of warm air advection from the southwest. Meanwhile, cold airmass is present across northern Scandinavia and extreme eastern Europe, slowly moving eastwards. Cool morning temperatures under mostly clear skies across southeastern Europe. Map: Meteociel.fr. Latest model guidance indicates three successive cold blasts from the north: the first, relatively weak one coming across N-CNTRL Europe tomorrow, the second, major one rapidly pushing across the
Various models are in good agreement for a sharp pattern change starting late this weekend from N Europe spreading into east-central Europe and Balkan peninsula next week. An upper ridge will develop across western Europe and north Atlantic, blocking the zonal mild flow from the west while a deep trough / cyclones will be forming over Scandinavia and NW Russia. This will allow the establishment of meridional flow and advection of very cold airmass towards the Alps and Balkan peninsula. A period of much colder days than average seems increasingly likely. Temperature anomaly map of Europe for October 30. Blue hues represent colder weather than average, red hues warmer. Much of central Europe, including France, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia
Every year around Halloween a sprinkle of bright meteors appears: the Taurid meteor shower. The location of Taurid radiants in the sky at 11 pm local time at 50 °N latitude on Halloween, October 31. All Taurids will appear to trace back to these two points in the sky. There will be a waxing gibbous Moon in the southwestern sky. Taurid radiants reach their highest point in the sky at 1 am. Taurus will appear lower in the sky for locations north of this latitude and higher in the sky for locations south of this latitude. If you missed the Orionids worry not, it is followed by the beautiful Taurid meteor shower. The Taurids are a sparse shower of pretty,
Various models are in good agreement for a sharp pattern change starting late this weekend from N Europe spreading into east-central Europe and Balkan peninsula next week. An upper ridge will develop across W Europe and N Atlantic, blocking the zonal mild flow from the west while a deep trough / cyclones will be forming over Scandinavia and NW Russia. This will allow an establishment of meridional flow and advection of very cold airmass towards the Alps and Balkan peninsula. A period of much colder days than average seems increasingly likely. Stay tuned for further updates on the evolution of this cold blast!
Researchers have created a tool for objectively defining the onset and demise of the Indian Summer Monsoon — a colossal weather system that affects billions of people annually.
Photographing meteors – like the Orionids, active right now – is loads of fun and with a bit of luck, you can catch a big, bright one! Here is how you do it. Equipment: A camera with the option of making long exposures. Any interchangeable lens camera (DSLR or mirrorless) will have the option, many compact cameras and some phone cameras also have the option. A remote trigger for the camera (or timer). A tripod. A meteor shower. The stronger, the better. How to do it – camera settings The best time to photograph meteors is during maxima of major meteor showers, such as the Quadrantids, Perseids and Geminids. Moderately strong meteor showers, such as the Lyrids, Southern Delta Aquarids,
Cyclone Brian has reached Ireland and the United Kingdom: peak winds up to 110-130 km/h are being reported. Details below. Current situation Brian’s center is currently located over central Ireland, at central pressure of 976 mbar, significantly up from yesterday’s values below 970 mbar. Peak reported winds are in 110-130 km/h range: Bouee 62107 (SW of Cornwall, UK) – 126 km/h, Sherkin Island (Ireland) – 112 km/h, Shannon Airport (Ireland) – 101 km/h, Mumbles (UK) – 108 km/h, Pembrey Sands UK) – 104 km/h. Winds are currently peaking at 80-90 km/h in western Wales, Cornwall, parts of Devon and most of Ireland. Storm Brian centered over Ireland, current mean sea level pressure is 976 mbar. Maps: Meteociel.fr. Peak wind gusts
US ocean observation critical to understanding climate change, but lacks long-term national planning
Ocean observing systems are important as they provide information essential for monitoring and forecasting changes in Earth's climate on timescales ranging from days to centuries. A new report finds that continuity of ocean observations is vital to gain an accurate understanding of the climate, and calls for a decadal, national plan that is adequately resourced and implemented to ensure critical ocean information is available to understand and predict future changes.
Meteor showers are great fun! The Orionid meteor shower peaks this weekend. Here are some tips on how to see it best! Orionids are bits and pieces of the well-know comet Halley. As the comet rounds the Sun every 76 years, it releases a stream of small dust particles in its path. The Earth ploughs through the stream every year around October 20-23. The Earth and particles collide at 67 km/s and the particles burn up high in the atmosphere, producing bright streaks of light – meteors. The dust particles (called meteoroids) travel on parallel paths, but due to the same geometric effect that makes it look like two railway tracks merge in the distance, all Orionids will seem to
Update on approaching Cyclone Brian. Cyclone ‘Brian’ is still far from land over the Atlantic ocean west of Ireland and it has now deepened to 965 mbar. Winds are likely gusting at up to 150-160 km/h. The system is approaching Ireland and will begin affecting it by early evening. However, as the system will likely be gradually weakening, the peak gusts tonight will probably reach ‘only’ up to 100 km/h (in S Ireland) and peak tomorrow morning at 110-120 km/h. Windy weather ahead for Ireland and the UK, some damage potential. ARPEGE model guidance for peak wind gusts today and tomorrow. Maps: Wxcharts.eu. High resolution HIRLAM model guidance for peak wind gusts across Ireland and SW UK. Maps: Wxcharts.eu. A
The system is still on track to affect Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom late tomorrow and on Sunday. Current model guidance suggest peak winds of 110-130 km/h in southern Ireland and lesser winds elsewhere. Currently the system is deepening over the central northern Atlantic, having dropped by 9 mbar in the past 6 hour (bombogenesis!) to current central mean sea level pressure of 979 mbar. The system is tracking ENE towards Ireland. Morphology of the storm in satellite imagery indicates a possible sting jet forming, although satellite imagery along is insufficient to ascertain its presence or absence. Recall that cyclone Ophelia likely developed a sting jet just before landfall, causing 191 km/h peak wind gusts just off the
Since 1989, in 63 nature reserves in Germany the total biomass of flying insects has decreased by more than 75 percent. This decrease has long been suspected but has turned out to be more severe than previously thought.
Up to 100 mm of rainfall, locally more, is indicated by high-res models for extreme NE Spain and S France by early tomorrow morning. Expect local flooding. Follow ongoing storms on radar: Spain France A cutoff cold core upper low is forming over the Iberian peninsula, with thunderstorms ongoing along the cold front in the eastern part of the peninsula and extreme western Mediterranean. Favourable south-north storm motion in extreme northeastern Spain and southern France will result in accumulation of rainfall from successive storms, locally up to 100 mm or more. Expect local flooding. Moderate instability with up to about 1000 J/kg MLCAPE overlaps favourable with strong 30-50 kt deep-layer shear. Moderately favourable vertical veering wind profiles provide up to
20. novembri ekstreemumid 2007-2017
Täna Tallinnas kõige soojem on olnud 10,7°C (1978) ja külmem -16,6°C (1933).
Täna Tartus kõige soojem on olnud 10,5°C (1978) ja külmem -20,0°C (1965).