A potentially dangerous feature is seen on the maps this coming Thursday and Friday across Ionian sea towards S Greece – a warm core system or a so-called TLC (Mediterranean tropical like cyclone), or a “Medicane” developing between Sicily and Tunisia, moving into the Ionian sea and intensifying into a strong tropical-like cyclone with sustained winds around 85 km/h and gusts above 120 km/h. Interestingly, both global models GFS and ECMWF are hinting at its development which is quite surprising given their poor resolution against the high resolution models such as AROME, ICON, WRF, etc. The system definitely deserves more attention in the coming days as it could bring dangerous winds, excessive rainfall and high waves along the coast of
Intense rainfall is expected across Montenegro and extreme northern Albania over the next 24-30 hours, with totals approaching 200 mm, locally possibly exceeding this value. This is a potentially dangerous situation, expect major flash flooding in the area! Rainfall totals by Tuesday morning. ARPEGE and HIRLAM model guidance. Maps: Wxcharts.eu
Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions across parts of western Slovenia and northwestern Croatia on Monday, Tuesday
Strong snowfall and intense Burja/Bura winds will develop across W Slovenia and NW Croatia in response to the deepening cutoff low over the northern Mediterranean and surface low over north Italy / Adriatic sea on Monday. This will result in locally intense blizzard conditions. Heavy snowfall is expected across the northern Dinarides: up to 20-40 cm in southwestern Slovenia, with up to 50 cm and locally possibly more across the higher elevations of the Snežnik massif. Snowfall may reach down to about 500 m elevation. Heavy snowfall also across Lika and Gorski Kotar in Croatia, locally up to 50-70 cm of snow. Expect snowfall with up to 10-20 cm of snow also across the Dinarides of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Snow
Major cutoff low to form over Italy/central Mediterranean on Monday: locally heavy snowfall and strong Mistral and Bora winds coming
The trough that passed across the central Europe on Sunday will transform into a deep cutoff upper (Genoa) low as it crosses the Alps into the northern Mediterranean. The cutoff low will cause intense snowfall across the Apennines and Dinarides with locally up to 50-70 cm of snowfall and some snow down to 500 m. Also, strong Mistral and Bora winds will develop, with gusts well in excess of 100 km/h. The deep cutoff low will begin forming on Sunday evening and deepen overnight as it moves over the Ligurian sea and northern Italy. It is expected to move south into the Tyrrhenian sea by early on Tuesday. A broad and deep surface low will develop over northern Italy by
Severe thunderstorms hit the southern part of Italy and Malta with major hailstorms and torrential rainfall, which caused local flooding. Intense lightning activity with storms over southern Italy in 24h on November 10: nearly 60 000 lightning flashes recorded. Map: Blitzortung.org A weak cutoff upper low over W-CNTRL Mediterranean and north Algeria and Tunisia produced widespread thunderstorms across the central Mediterranean region, including some organized, severe thunderstorms. In particular over Sicily and Malta, torrential downpours caused locally strong flash flooding, hailstorms and a tornado. A particularly intense hailstorm hit Acate (Ragusa, Sicily), with massive hail accumulations building up in the streets. Report: Weather Sicily. Flooding in Gela, Sicily. Report: Weather Sicily. Augusta, Sicily under water. Report: Meteo real time. Major
Cold weather for central, southeastern Europe and the Mediterranean – pattern flip over the next few days
northern, central and southeastern Europe – update on the pattern change and evolution next week. With the strengthening ridge over the north Atlantic and western Europe, flow will transition from zonal into meridional and a blast of Arctic airmass will push south towards the Mediterranean. An impressively deep trough with a sharp cold front will cross the central Europe and enter the northern Mediterranean by Monday, where it will transform into a deep upper low and bring much colder than average temperatures for the rest of the week. Some severe weather will be possible along the leading cold front with rain changing to snow quite close to lowlands locally (particularly the WNW Balkan peninsula). Powerful downslope Bura/Bora winds are likely
A large, damaging tornado hit the towns of San Vito and Borgo Hermada in Lazio, central Italy, about 60 km south of Rome on Sunday, November 5. Significant damage has been reported from the towns, including damaged and destroyed roofs and uprooted trees. The tornado was described as wedge or multi-vortex, however, there is no official damage rating yet.
Models are in good agreement for a new cold Arctic blast towards the central Europe and Mediterranean later this weekend and early next week, as a strong cold front will be pushed from the north on Sunday through Monday and Tuesday, pushing all the way south towards the SW Balkan peninsula and S Italy. It will bring fresh snow into the Alps as well as some fresh snow also into higher terrain of WSW Balkan peninsula including W Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, SW Serbia, Montenegro and surroundings. GFS model for example is simulating excessive amounts of snow (50+ cm) across W Balkan peninsula (SW Bosnia, Montenegro). Behind the cold front, strong NNE flow will drop temperatures well below average, so expect
A developing pattern across Europe suggests there will be a significant cold blast (locally 5-8°C colder than average days) from north towards central Europe and Mediterranean, starting later this weekend when a sharp cold front will be pushed across the Alps towards Italy and W Balkan peninsula. A large pool of cold airmass will spread behind the front and should extend well south towards N Africa as well. Some snow is expected from the Alps across the W Balkan countries too, along with strong downslope winds with locally hurricane force wind gusts. Temperature anomaly across Europe. Map by Tropicaltidbits.com Stay tuned for further updates!
Impressive amounts of fresh snow are expected across the higher terrain of SW Norway through the next 4 days, until Tuesday Nov 14th. The current pattern suggests a deep trough and very deep cyclone will be situated almost stationary over the Norwegian sea, maintaining strong WSW mid-level flow across Norway which usually results in excessive orographic precipitation. With rather cold temperatures within the upper trough, conditions are favorable for snowfall across large area and the persistent flow should allow high snowfall sums. In particular for the higher terrain of SW Norway where some models are hinting at 100+ cm of fresh snow by Tuesday. Combined with strong winds, high snow drifts and dangerous driving conditions are expected as well. 4-day
A well-designed climate observing system could help scientists answer knotty questions about climate while delivering trillions of dollars in benefits by providing decision makers information they need to protect public health and the economy in the coming decades.
Latest high-res model gudiance indicates up to 100-150+ mm of rainfall along the coastal areas: the exact area of peak rainfall depends on the exact location of convective lines, however, the entire region is expected to receive major amounts of rainfall. Expect enhanced flash flooding threat! Maps: Wxcharts.eu
Many animals rely on movement to find prey and avoid predators. Movement is also an essential component of the territorial displays of lizards, comprising tail, limb, head and whole-body movements.
Major snowfall is expected over the weekend with the cutoff low progressing across the north-central Mediterranean. Much of the Alps will receive over 25 cm of fresh snow, with some areas receiving as much as 50-100 cm. In general snow limit will be at 1800-2000 m, dropping to 1500-1600 m in more intense snow showers, but will gradually drop (well) below 1000 m across most of the Alps, in particular across the northern half and northern flank. Total snowfall across the Alps in the next 72 hours. Map: Meteoexploration.com. Total snow accumulation across the Alps through mid-Monday. Map: Wxcharts.eu. Total snow accumulation across the Alps through mid-Monday. Map: Wxcharts.eu. Stay tuned for updates!
Major rainfall is expected for parts of southern France tomorrow, with cumulatives locally reaching 200 mm / 24h. Expect enhanced threat of major flash flooding. High-resolution ARPEGE model guidance for total rainfall in north-central Mediterranean until Sunday late morning. Map: Wxcharts.eu. The deep trough over the Iberian peninsula and western Europe transitions into a cutoff upper low over the weekend, affecting the western Mediterranean. A surface low will develop off the east coast of Spain and rapidly deepen while moving ENE towards the coast of S France. Ahead of the frontal line considerable instability will develop, with up to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE indicated by various high-resolution models. Strong low level southerly winds coming onshore across S-SW France and undergoing forced
A progressive pattern developing from western into central Europe this weekendn will bring a deep trough towards the northern Mediterranean where a transition of the trough into a deep upper low is expected over N Italy on Sunday. In response, classic but deep surface cyclone (Genoa low) will form and result in frontal system pushed towards the western Balkan peninsula. Such pattern usually brings strong warm and humid southerlies across the Ligurian and Adriatic sea, bringing a lot of moisture towards the southern Alpine flank. Persisting winds result in orographic rainfall and therefore high amounts of rain, as well as lots of snow in the higher elevations. With still rather warm Mediterranean sea, instability should build up and locally reach
Measurements from satellites this year showed the hole in Earth's ozone layer that forms over Antarctica each September was the smallest observed since 1988, scientists have announced.
A period of very warm weather is ahead for a large part of the Arctic, with local temperature anomaly reaching +20 °C or more. While this is an early trend that may well change during the winter, we take a look at current temperatures and sea ice extent in the Arctic and the effect the anomalously warm winter of 2016/2017 in the Arctic had on the sea ice extent. GFS model forecast for temperature anomaly across the Arctic region. Maps: Tropical Tidbits Currently the average (air) temperature in the Arctic region north of the 80th parallel is approximately 3 °C above the long term (1958-2002) average. Latest GFS model guidance suggests this trend will remain, and likely strengthen, over the
Intense rainfall across southern France and northwest Italy in the next few days, local flooding expected
Intense rainfall is expected in parts of southern France and northwest Italy in the next 3 days. Locally, cumulatives may exceed 200 mm and significant flooding is expected. A new strong trough will push from the northwest into western Europe and western Mediterranean. Persistent convective rainfall along the frontal line and locally training convective cells is expected. Stay tuned for more detils. High-resolution ARPEGE model guidance for total rainfall in north-central Mediterranean until Sunday eveing. Map: Wxcharts.eu.
Latest GFS model guidance indicates impressive warming in parts of the Arctic over the next 10 days, with temperature anomaly locally exceeding +20 °C, even approaching +30 °C. Locally temperature will be above 0 °C. Recall that the Arctic is now in polar night, with the Sun never rising for much of the region. Maps: Tropical Tidbits
22. novembri ekstreemumid 2007-2017
Täna Tallinnas kõige soojem on olnud 8,4°C (1961) ja külmem -16,3°C (1971).
Täna Tartus kõige soojem on olnud 9,3°C (1926) ja külmem -15,9°C (1971).
23.11. hommikupoole ööd tugevneb kagu ja lõunatuul 14, puhanguti 20 m/s
23.11. pärast keskööd tugevneb kagu ja lõunatuul 14, puhanguti 20 m/s
23.11. pärast keskööd tugevneb kagu ja lõunatuul 14, puhanguti 20 m/s
23.11. öösel tugevneb kagu ja lõunatuul 14 kuni 17, puhanguti kuni 22 m/s