Severe Weather Europe
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Models are in good agreement for a new cold Arctic blast towards the central Europe and Mediterranean later this weekend and early next week, as a strong cold front will be pushed from the north on Sunday through Monday and Tuesday, pushing all the way south towards the SW Balkan peninsula and S Italy. It will bring fresh snow into the Alps as well as some fresh snow also into higher terrain of WSW Balkan peninsula including W Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, SW Serbia, Montenegro and surroundings. GFS model for example is simulating excessive amounts of snow (50+ cm) across W Balkan peninsula (SW Bosnia, Montenegro). Behind the cold front, strong NNE flow will drop temperatures well below average, so expect
A developing pattern across Europe suggests there will be a significant cold blast (locally 5-8°C colder than average days) from north towards central Europe and Mediterranean, starting later this weekend when a sharp cold front will be pushed across the Alps towards Italy and W Balkan peninsula. A large pool of cold airmass will spread behind the front and should extend well south towards N Africa as well. Some snow is expected from the Alps across the W Balkan countries too, along with strong downslope winds with locally hurricane force wind gusts. Temperature anomaly across Europe. Map by Tropicaltidbits.com Stay tuned for further updates!
Impressive amounts of fresh snow are expected across the higher terrain of SW Norway through the next 4 days, until Tuesday Nov 14th. The current pattern suggests a deep trough and very deep cyclone will be situated almost stationary over the Norwegian sea, maintaining strong WSW mid-level flow across Norway which usually results in excessive orographic precipitation. With rather cold temperatures within the upper trough, conditions are favorable for snowfall across large area and the persistent flow should allow high snowfall sums. In particular for the higher terrain of SW Norway where some models are hinting at 100+ cm of fresh snow by Tuesday. Combined with strong winds, high snow drifts and dangerous driving conditions are expected as well. 4-day
Latest high-res model gudiance indicates up to 100-150+ mm of rainfall along the coastal areas: the exact area of peak rainfall depends on the exact location of convective lines, however, the entire region is expected to receive major amounts of rainfall. Expect enhanced flash flooding threat! Maps: Wxcharts.eu
Major snowfall is expected over the weekend with the cutoff low progressing across the north-central Mediterranean. Much of the Alps will receive over 25 cm of fresh snow, with some areas receiving as much as 50-100 cm. In general snow limit will be at 1800-2000 m, dropping to 1500-1600 m in more intense snow showers, but will gradually drop (well) below 1000 m across most of the Alps, in particular across the northern half and northern flank. Total snowfall across the Alps in the next 72 hours. Map: Meteoexploration.com. Total snow accumulation across the Alps through mid-Monday. Map: Wxcharts.eu. Total snow accumulation across the Alps through mid-Monday. Map: Wxcharts.eu. Stay tuned for updates!
Major rainfall is expected for parts of southern France tomorrow, with cumulatives locally reaching 200 mm / 24h. Expect enhanced threat of major flash flooding. High-resolution ARPEGE model guidance for total rainfall in north-central Mediterranean until Sunday late morning. Map: Wxcharts.eu. The deep trough over the Iberian peninsula and western Europe transitions into a cutoff upper low over the weekend, affecting the western Mediterranean. A surface low will develop off the east coast of Spain and rapidly deepen while moving ENE towards the coast of S France. Ahead of the frontal line considerable instability will develop, with up to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE indicated by various high-resolution models. Strong low level southerly winds coming onshore across S-SW France and undergoing forced
A progressive pattern developing from western into central Europe this weekendn will bring a deep trough towards the northern Mediterranean where a transition of the trough into a deep upper low is expected over N Italy on Sunday. In response, classic but deep surface cyclone (Genoa low) will form and result in frontal system pushed towards the western Balkan peninsula. Such pattern usually brings strong warm and humid southerlies across the Ligurian and Adriatic sea, bringing a lot of moisture towards the southern Alpine flank. Persisting winds result in orographic rainfall and therefore high amounts of rain, as well as lots of snow in the higher elevations. With still rather warm Mediterranean sea, instability should build up and locally reach
A period of very warm weather is ahead for a large part of the Arctic, with local temperature anomaly reaching +20 °C or more. While this is an early trend that may well change during the winter, we take a look at current temperatures and sea ice extent in the Arctic and the effect the anomalously warm winter of 2016/2017 in the Arctic had on the sea ice extent. GFS model forecast for temperature anomaly across the Arctic region. Maps: Tropical Tidbits Currently the average (air) temperature in the Arctic region north of the 80th parallel is approximately 3 °C above the long term (1958-2002) average. Latest GFS model guidance suggests this trend will remain, and likely strengthen, over the
Intense rainfall across southern France and northwest Italy in the next few days, local flooding expected
Intense rainfall is expected in parts of southern France and northwest Italy in the next 3 days. Locally, cumulatives may exceed 200 mm and significant flooding is expected. A new strong trough will push from the northwest into western Europe and western Mediterranean. Persistent convective rainfall along the frontal line and locally training convective cells is expected. Stay tuned for more detils. High-resolution ARPEGE model guidance for total rainfall in north-central Mediterranean until Sunday eveing. Map: Wxcharts.eu.
Latest GFS model guidance indicates impressive warming in parts of the Arctic over the next 10 days, with temperature anomaly locally exceeding +20 °C, even approaching +30 °C. Locally temperature will be above 0 °C. Recall that the Arctic is now in polar night, with the Sun never rising for much of the region. Maps: Tropical Tidbits
With a developed strong pattern dividing Europe in two halfs, a very cold airmass behind a deep upper low moving across ESE Europe will spread over east-central Europe, Balkan peninsula and N Turkey, therefore resulting in much colder days than average – 4-8 °C below normal! In response to a strenghtening upper ridge / high pressure across N Atlantic and W Europe, much warmer weather should be expected over British Isles and Iceland, locally 5-10 °C higher than average – especially in the higher elevations as lowlands could be trapped under inversion layer and cooler temperatures. Upper ridge will gradually move towards central Europe tomorrow and advect warmer temps into the region pushing colder airmass into Black Sea / Turkey
An interesting pattern is developing across Europe with a strenghtening upper ridge across N Atlantic and western Europe while a very deep upper level low is moving across ESE Europe. In between, a cold polar airmass has been advecting across central Europe and Balkan peninsula and should continue until Wednesday. Cold frosty mornings are expected and some snow as well, especially where northerlies will advect moisture into the mountainous terrain e.g. N Alps, Tatras mountains, Carpathian mointains, parts of Turkey… This strong pattern should gradually weaken by Wednesday when upper low moves further east into central Europe and deep upper low moves off the SE Europe. Stay tuned for further updates on the evolution of the pattern.
Latest GFS model guidance showing some fresh snow is likely to accumate across parts of eastern Europe in response to a very cold airmass advection between deep trough to the east and ridge to the west. Some snow will be possible in parts of Poland and Baltic countries, Czech Republic, Slovakia, W Ukraine, N Austria and Romania. Locally a few cm of fresh snow is possible, while higher elevations (1000m ASL and above) could see up to 30 cm of fresh snow until Tuesday. Strong NW flow into Norway and Sweden should also result on some good amounts of fresh snow through the next two days. An extensive pool of polar cold airmass will spread across east-central Europe and SE
A powerful outbreak of cold airmass is spreading across east-central Europe today, associated with the very deep cyclone moving from Baltic States towards the Black Sea. An extensive pool of cool polar airmass will spread across large part of Europe over the next few days with expected daily temperatures well below average for this time of the year, approx. 6-10 °C below average. Many areas are likely to see frost in the mornings until Thursday. Models are well on track for establishment of a strong pattern over Europe with a broad low pressure area over the eastern half and a strengthening ridge over the western half. Meridional flow will establish, with cool airmass advecting from the polar regions into much
A major wave of cool polar airmass will spread across central, eastern and southeastern Europe over the next few days, starting tomorrow. Expect temperatures well below average for this time of the year, up to 6-10 °C below average. Many areas are likely to see frost in the morning. Models are still on track for establishment of a strong pattern over Europe with a broad low pressure area over the eastern half and a strengthening ridge over the western half. Meridional flow will establish, with cool airmass advecting from the polar regions into much of central, eastern and southeastern Europe. Temperatures will be up to up to 6-10 °C below average. Temperature anomaly (difference from average) at 850 mbar level.
Strong winds, gusting up to 130-150 km/h km/h and more at higher elevations are expected tomorrow across parts of Germany, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria. A trough associated with a deep low over eastern Batic region forms a secondary low, quickly moving across the southern Baltic, Poland and into Belarus tomorrow. The secondary low will cause a strong windstorm across parts of central Europe: winds gusting up to 110-130 km/h, across parts of Germany, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria. Current high-res model gudiance suggests wind gusts up to 130-150 km/h in parts of eastern Germany and NW Czech Republic. Peak wind gusts on Sunday (AROME model guidance). Map: Wxcharts.eu.
A major outbreak of cold arctic airmass over much of Europe north of the Alps and well into southeastern Europe as far south as Greece is coming. Temperature analysis across Europe this morning, October 26. Much of western Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, France, BeNeLux, the British Isles and Ireland and southern Scandinavia is under the influence of warm air advection from the southwest. Meanwhile, cold airmass is present across northern Scandinavia and extreme eastern Europe, slowly moving eastwards. Cool morning temperatures under mostly clear skies across southeastern Europe. Map: Meteociel.fr. Latest model guidance indicates three successive cold blasts from the north: the first, relatively weak one coming across N-CNTRL Europe tomorrow, the second, major one rapidly pushing across the
Various models are in good agreement for a sharp pattern change starting late this weekend from N Europe spreading into east-central Europe and Balkan peninsula next week. An upper ridge will develop across western Europe and north Atlantic, blocking the zonal mild flow from the west while a deep trough / cyclones will be forming over Scandinavia and NW Russia. This will allow the establishment of meridional flow and advection of very cold airmass towards the Alps and Balkan peninsula. A period of much colder days than average seems increasingly likely. Temperature anomaly map of Europe for October 30. Blue hues represent colder weather than average, red hues warmer. Much of central Europe, including France, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia
Every year around Halloween a sprinkle of bright meteors appears: the Taurid meteor shower. The location of Taurid radiants in the sky at 11 pm local time at 50 °N latitude on Halloween, October 31. All Taurids will appear to trace back to these two points in the sky. There will be a waxing gibbous Moon in the southwestern sky. Taurid radiants reach their highest point in the sky at 1 am. Taurus will appear lower in the sky for locations north of this latitude and higher in the sky for locations south of this latitude. If you missed the Orionids worry not, it is followed by the beautiful Taurid meteor shower. The Taurids are a sparse shower of pretty,
Various models are in good agreement for a sharp pattern change starting late this weekend from N Europe spreading into east-central Europe and Balkan peninsula next week. An upper ridge will develop across W Europe and N Atlantic, blocking the zonal mild flow from the west while a deep trough / cyclones will be forming over Scandinavia and NW Russia. This will allow an establishment of meridional flow and advection of very cold airmass towards the Alps and Balkan peninsula. A period of much colder days than average seems increasingly likely. Stay tuned for further updates on the evolution of this cold blast!
21. novembri ekstreemumid 2007-2017
Täna Tallinnas kõige soojem on olnud 9,5°C (1996) ja külmem -15,2°C (1946).
Täna Tartus kõige soojem on olnud 10,0°C (1926) ja külmem -16,4°C (1965).