Severe Weather Europe

VALID FOR 23-04-2018 SYNOPSIS An upper ridge still extending across much of south-central Europe where a short wave moves across N Germany/Denmark towards ENE. An upper low SW of Iberia finally weakens while moving south. A weak upper low is moving across S Mediterranean towards E. DISCUSSION An ENH risk has been issued for N Morrocco with threat for severe storms capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Rather widespread organized severe storms are expected given the moderate instability (1000+ J/kg) and moderate shear in place. A SLGT risk has been issued for areas surrounding ENH risk across N Morrocco into Portugal and SW Spain with more isolated threat for severe storms. A MRGL risk has been

VALID FOR 22-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A large upper ridge still dominates most of south-central Europe while trough over W Europe pushes a short wave towards Benelux. Large upper low remains centered SW of Iberia, while two weak upper lows affect weather across S Italy and Middle East. DISCUSSION An ENH risk has been issued for west-central Spain and E Portugal with threat for excessive rainfall, large hail and severe winds. Moderate shear and instability will support organized storms through the whole day and night to Monday as an almost stationary upper low continues to maintain its strength. Locally high rainfall sums are possible. A SLGT risk has been issued for surrounding areas of ENH risk across parts of west-central Iberia across

VALID FOR 21-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A ridge / high pressure system dominates most of south-central Europe. A weak upper low rotates SW of Iberian peninsula while a large trough/cyclone remains over E Atlantic. Another short wave / upper low maintains over N Middle East. A deep cyclone over NW Russia pushes a cold front across E Europe with a diffuse frontal SFC boundary extended towards W Europe. DISCUSSION An ENH risk has been issued for S Portugal and S Spain with threat for severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, torrential rainfall and large hail. Moderate instability within moderately strong shear and good helicity will support organized storms along the cold front. Training cells could result in excessive rainfall threat locally.

The Earth ploughs through the crumbs of comet Thatcher and we are all in for a moderate celestial fireworks dispay. Want to see the Lyrids? Brilliant Lyrid meteor and the Summer milky way over the Adriatic sea. Photo: Marko Korošec. Be out under the stars on Sunday morning for a nice celestial treat. The Lyrid meteor shower peaks with up to 15 to 20 meteors visible under dark rural skies. While the Lyrids are not the strongest annual meteor showers, it will be a while until the next one (the Perseids in August), so it is well worth making the best of it. The best time to view the Lyrids is in the morning hours. On Sunday morning, the waxing

VALID FOR 15-04-2018 SYNOPSIS An extensive ridge dominates Europe, a weak upper low is located in southern Mediterranean. A large trough with deep cyclone approaches the British Isles. DISCUSSION A SLGT risk has been issued for central Italy with threat for severe storms, capable of producing marginally large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. Being under a weak upper low, a lot of convective activity will be on going during the daytime hours. A MRGL risk has been issued for central Italy, Tyrrhenian sea into N Tunisia with similar threat as within the SLGT risk area, but more isolated storms are possible. A MRGL risk has been issued for extreme NE Germany, WSW Poland, E Czech Republic, W Slovakia and

VALID FOR 14-04-2018 SYNOPSIS An extensive ridge from E/N Europe is spreading into central Europe as a large upper low, which was dominating SW Europe previous days, diminishes. Another cold core low pushes across NE Algeria. DISCUSSION A SLGT risk has been issued NE Algeria into N Tunisia with threat for severe storms capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Marginal to moderate instability overlapped with strong shear/helicity will be supportive of organized storms along and ahead of the cold front pushed from the SW. Storms should spread NE-wards towards Tyrrhenian sea in the evening hours. A MRGL risk has been issued for SE Poland, W Ukraine into NE Romania and N Moldova with isolated threat for

VALID FOR 13-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A large upper low with several cores dominates WSW and central Europe on Friday, while a ridge dominates NNE Europe. A difuse almost stationary front brings focus for convective activity across parts of cental Europe. DISCUSSION A SLGT risk has been issued for NE Germany, N Czech Republic into SW Poland with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing severe winds, marginally large hail and torrential rainfall. Daytime convective activity is expected along the difuse front as marginal instability overlaps with moderate shear which supports some organized storms. MRGL risks have been issued for S Spain into N Morrocco, around Pyrenees and across SE Turkey where some threat for isolated storms exists, those could bring

VALID FOR 12-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A large strenghtening ridge dominates N / E Europe while SW Europe is dominated by a large upper low. A short wave trough with frontal system pushes into central Europe. Another short wave is pushed into S Iberian peninsula in the afternoon. DISCUSSION ENH/SLGT risks have been issued for extreme S Portugal and Spain into Gibraltar and N Morrocco with threat for severe storms capable of producing severe winds, torrential and excessive rainfall, marginally large hail and lesser extent for tornadoes. A sharp cold front rapidly moves from NW towards SE across southern Iberia with some marginal instability available within the moderately strong wind shear. A convective line is possible along the leading front, affecting a

VALID FOR 11-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A Rex blocking pattern dominates Europe on Wednesday, with an extensive upper ridge across N-NE Europe and a large upper low centered over SW Europe. Weak short-wave is pushed across N Balkan peninsula while a weak upper low remains over N Middle East region. DISCUSSION An ENH risk has been issued for W Alps with threat for excessive rainfall due to persisting SSE winds, resulting in strong orographic precipitation, locally resulting in more than 100mm in 24 hours period, flooding will be possible. Some convective precipitation cannot be rulled out either, resulting in training cells towards the mountainous terrain. SLGT/MRGL risks have been issued for NW Italy into S France with threat for severe storms, capable

VALID FOR 10-04-2018 SYNOPSIS Two large features dominate Europe, one is a large ridge across north and eastern Europe while another feature of interest is a large upper low over SW Europe, with an associated surface front pushed across Iberia and another one across southern Mediterranean. A short wave through is being pushed across central Europe from the SW. A shallow upper low rotates across far E Mediterranean and Middle East. DISCUSSION SLGT/MRGL risks have been issued for extreme NE Algeria into N Tunisia with threat for severe storms capable of producing severe winds, heavy rainfall and marginally large hail. SLGT/MRGL risks have been issued for SE Turkey into N Middle East with threat for severe winds, excessive / torrential

VALID FOR 08-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A ridge dominates east-central Europe where small weak upper low moves across Czech Republic into Poland. A large trough gradually transforming into an upper low over SW Europe and pushes into W Mediterranean. Another upper low remain almost stationary across S Turkey and SE Mediterranean. DISCUSSION A SLGT risk has been issued for S Turkey and Middle east with threat for scattered severe storms capable of producing severe winds, torrrential rainfall and large hail. An almost stationary upper low remains over far east Mediterranean and results in marginal to moderate instability ahead and along the cold front pushed into Middle East. With moderate shear and good helicity in place, organized severe storms are likely from midday

VALID FOR 07-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A large upper ridge dominates east-central EUrope where a weak upper low is centered over Aegean sea. A transforming trough is moving across an Iberian peninsula, expected to become a stationary upper low over SW Europe on Sunday. DISCUSSION A MRGL risk has been issued for S Spain and Gibraltar with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing torrential rainfall and severe winds. SLGT/MRGL risks have been issued for W Turkey with threat for severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. A few severe storms are possible in the peak heating hours as quite some instability develops in the moderately sheared environment. Elswhere, TSTM risk areas have been placed where only isolated sub-severe storms ara

VALID FOR 06-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A large upper trough with deep cyclone is approaching western Europe from the Atlantic where a strenghtening ridge is expanding from Mediterranean into central Europe. A weakening short-wave trough/upper low is moving across the southern Balkan peninsula. Deep trough/cyclone moves from Scandinavia towards NW Russia. DISCUSSION A SLGT risk has been issued for eastern Spain with threat for severe storms capable of isolated threat for large hail, torrential rainfall and severe winds along the eastwards moving strong cold front. A MRGL risk has been issued for areas surrounding the SLGT risk areas across east-central Spain into SW France with threat for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing marginally large hail and strong to severe

VALID FOR 05-04-2018 SYNOPSIS Dynamic weather pattern across Europe on Thursday, a short-wave moves across central Europe with a surface frontal system affecting N Mediterranean and Balkan peninsula. Further west, deep trough/cyclone is located across eastern Atlantic, while a strengthening ridge is spreading across WSW Europe. Large cyclone with cold weather remains across northern Europe. DISCUSSION A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of central Balkan peninsula including E-CNTRL Bosnia and S-CNTRL Serbia with threat for isolated severe storms, capable of producing marginally large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. Marginal to moderate instability will be available ahead of the approaching cold front within moderate deep-layer wind shear. Although the upper-level forcing will be rather strong and widespread shallow

VALID FOR 01-04-2018 SYNOPSIS A pronounced trough is gradually weakening while moving from central towards the eastern Europe. At surface, a cold front is pushed across S Balkan peninsula. Another trough is approaching Iberia from the Atlantic while ridge builds in between across the Mediterranean. DISCUSSION SLGT/MRGL risks have been issued for parts of NE Italy, Slovenia and NW Croatia with threat for isoalated marginal hail and heavy rainfall. A few 100 J/kg of MLCAPE builds up across the risk area within moderately strong wind shear. Conditions are supportive of organized storms and widespread graupel showers mainly in the afternoon hours. SLGT risk has been issued for parts of S Balkan peninsula including S Serbia, Albania, N Greece, Bulgaria and

VALID FOR 31-03-2018 SYNOPSIS A large trough centered over west-central Europe dominates our continent with a frontal system pushed across the north-central Mediterranean and N Balkan peninsula. A cold front expected to bring severe weather into some regions as airmass become marginally to moderately unstable across the large warm sector. Strong warm advection is expected across the SE Europe while cold weather remains across NNE Europe. DISCUSSION An ENH risk has been issued for S Hungary, most of Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, NW Serbia, extreme SSW Slovenia and ENE Adriatic sea with threat for severe storms capable of producing severe winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. A cold front pushes through the risk area during the day and evening hours

VALID FOR 30-03-2018 SYNOPSIS Europe is dominated by a large upper trough spreading into central Europe with a surface frontal zone moving east through Friday. Very cold mid levels spread across the Bay of Biscay. DISCUSSION A SLGT risk has been issued for parts of N Italy, N Adriatic sea, W Slovenia and NW Croatia with threat for excessive rainfall due to continuous orographic precipitation combined with some convection. Locally more than 100 mm is expected in 24 hours. Additionally, strong warm advection should result in weakly unstable airmass (MLCAPE of near 400-800 J/kg) within strong (25+ m/s) deep layer shear and good helicity across the N Italian plains. Some severe storms could be possible in the afternoon hours, mainly

VALID FOR 29-03-2018 SYNOPSIS A large trough over W Europe is advancing towards SE through Thursday with a surface front pushed towards central Europe. High pressure system remains over NE Europe while a short-wave through over SE Europe is weakening and moving further NE towards Georgia through the day. DISCUSSION An ENH RISK has been issued for S Turkey, extreme SE Mediteerranean, Cyprus and N Middle East with threat for severe winds, torrential rainfall and marginally large hail. Widespread forcing should continue from the ongoing overnight / morning storms as main trough and front will be pushed across Turkey towards ENE. Despite marginal instability, strong shear and helicity are favorable for supercell storms with mainly heavy rainfall, hail and wind

A new cutoff low moves into the Mediterranean towards the end of week, pushing a new wave of Saharan dust into southern, southeastern and eastern Europe. Current model guidance suggests quite significant dust loads. After several waves of thick Saharan dust for southeastern Europe and eastern-central Mediterranean, a new wave pushes significantly more to the north and the west, affecting a much larger part of Europe. Latest model guidance indicates a wave of Saharan dust advecting with southwesterlies across the central Mediterranean / Tyrrhenian sea into the Adriatic region and western Balkans by late on Friday. The main dust concentration pushes into eastern Balkans and Ukraine on Saturday, while behind it a corridor of dust establishes across the central Mediterranean,

Calima is coming to Canary Islands over the next several days, blowing large amounts of Saharan dust into the region. Calima is a hot southerly, southeasterly or eastely wind in the Canary Islands region. It typically carries thick Saharan dust into the region. See dust maps below for the evolution of the event over the next several days. Maps: University of Athens SKIRON model.