Severe Weather Europe
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Pattern flip coming! This week starts with a strengthening ridge over WSW Europe, gradually expanding eastwards towards central Europe. To the east, deep but weakening trough is maintaining cold weather across the Balkan peninsula and surroundings. This should change in the coming days as an upper ridge / blocking dominates our continent. Once the blocking pattern establishes, a deep longwave trough will move over the N Atlantic and western Europe. Several waves will result in deep cyclones bringing unsettled conditions for the British Isles as well as Faroe Islands later this week. Cyclones will be moving towards the Norwegian coast. Locally very significant rainfall and severe winds associated with these cyclones are likely until the weekend. Areas under the upper
Medicane Numa / Zenon is making landfall on the western coast of Greece this evening. Lefkada, Kefalonia and Zakynthos islands expect strong winds, gusting at well over 100 km/h. Intense rainfall will also accompany the system, locally up to ~100 mm in several hours. As the system approaches the coast, strong convection is encircling the central part / eye of the system. The center of the system is likely to cross over Lefkada island within several hours. Latest high-res model runs suggest peak wind gusts between 110 and 150 km/h on Lefkada, Kefalonia and Zakynthos islands and further inland during the evening. Also expect strong convective with this system, locally up to ~100 mm within several hours. Flash floods are
Medicane Numa / Zenon is now moving southeastward across the Ionian sea for landfall along the western coast of Greece late in the day. We review various high-resolution models. Medicane “Numa” in latest satellite imagery, still located off the southern tip of Italy in the late morning of November 18, 2017. Image: EUMETSAT / Meteociel Latest ARPEGE model guidance indicates the system moving from its current position near the southern tip of Puglia, Italy across the northern Ionian sea towards ESE for landfall over southern Corfu island in the evening hours. The model also suggests the system will strengthen during the day, with peak wind gusts of 120-130 km/h in the second half of the day and at landfall. ARPEGE
A Medicane (Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone) has formed in the Ionian sea and is affecting the region with increasingly strong winds. We take a look at the latest high-resolution model guidance. Medicane “Numa” in latest satellite imagery, located just off the southern tip of Italy in the early afternoon of November 17, 2017. Image: EUMETSAT / Meteociel Latest high-resolution model gudiance is in good agreement for a slow loop inside the Ionian sea and strengthening of the system. All models indicate the system moving eastward towards the western coast of Greece tomorrow. Latest ICON model guidance indicates the system strengthening today just off the southern coast of Italy and then moving southeastward across the Ionian sea tomorrow, while strengthening. Peak strength
With all the talk about the possible formation of a Medicane in the central Mediterranean over the next day or two, we take a look at current models. Medicanes or TLCs (Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones) are relatively rare systems that share similarities with tropical cyclones, including a warm core and sometimes a clearly defined eye. They are infrequent phenomena, which sometimes reach severe status: usually with intense rainfall and some with severe winds (Medicane Qendresa in 2014, for example, reached peak sustained winds of 111 km/h and gusts of 154 km/h as it directly hit Malta). Two regions in the Mediterranean are favourable for Medicane formation: western Mediterranean and the Ionian sea. Both GFS and ECMWF models indicated the possibility of
Parts of Greece, particularly central Greece, over the next 48 hours. High-resolution models suggest totals in 200-400 mm range, locally possibly more. This is a potentially very dangerous situation for more intense flooding. Map: Pivotal Weather Intense rainfall is expected particularly in western Thessaly and central parts of Northern Greece, where models agree on very large cumulatives, 200-400+ mm within the next 48 hours along a nearly stationary warm front. Other parts, particularly the western coast of Greece along the Ionian sea and parts of Peloponnese peninsula may also receive locally very intense rainfall with up to 100 mm accumulations; rainfall in this region will depend on the evolution of the low, possibly a Medicane, in the Ionian sea over
A damaging tornado hit Finike, Antalya, Turkey during the evening of November 13. The tornado reached F2 intensity and produced a damage path about 10 km long and 300 m wide. 28 people are reported to have been injured in this event. Three further tornadoes hit the Antalya province the same evening, injuring 10 more people. Report: ESWD / Severe Weather Turkey.
Major flash floods have hit Western Attica, Greece this morning after a night of intense rainfall. Floding hit the towns of Elefsina, Mandra and Nea Peramos. Several fatalities, possibly up to 10 have already been reported. More intense rainfall and floods are expected across large parts of Greece in the next few days. Report: Forecast Weather Greece. Report: Bassa Pianura Padana Photo e Meteo ❄. Report: Giannis Tolis / Forecast Weather Greece. Major flash #floods in Elefsina, Mandra, Nea Peramos in Western Attica, #Greece this morning, November 15. Report: Tasos Kompoulis pic.twitter.com/2jUf6Ozlza — severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) 15 November 2017 Major flash floods also hit Symi Island, Dodecanese Islands, Greece, yesterday, November 14, producing major damage. Report: Forecast Weather Greece.
Greece is in for a 3-4 day period of intense rainfall. Combined totals over the period in western, central and southern Greece are likely to reach 50+ mm over widespread areas and locally 100-400+ mm. Major flooding is expected. Map: Pivotal Weather The major rainfall event will be caused by the persistent cutoff low, now centered over the southern-central Mediterranean. Strong Scirocco winds in the warm sector will be advecting warm, moist air from the central-eastern Mediterranean over Greece. Instability (up to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and forced lift along the higher relief of western and northern Greece will combine for intense convective and orographic rainfall. Large parts of central, northern and western Greece are likely to receive over 50 mm
Locally intense orographic rainfall is expected over the central Apennines today, with 24 hour totals locally up to 150-250 mm and 50-150 mm over a larger area of Marche, Umbria and Abruzzo. Expect locally intense flash flooding, this is a potentially dangerous situation which may result in loss of property and may be life threatening, stay alert. 24h rainfall totals in central Italy today. Maps: Consorzio LaMMA.
A new cold push from the Arctic is foreseen this coming weekend as the pattern changes again. A strengthening upper level ridge over the N Atlantic will advect warm airmass into western Europe while to the east of the ridge, a new rather deep cold wave will be moving across eastern Europe and bring colder airmass into central Europe first, then continue into Balkan peninsula and Mediterranean. A few days of colder than average weather is likely before ridge from the western Europe moves further east and strengthens into an omega blocking pattern next week. Stay tuned for more updates soon!
Organized thunderstorms are expected today in extreme southern Italy, particularly in parts of Puglia. Significant instability overlaps with an impressively sheared environment, favourable for supercell thunderstorms. Training storms in slowly moving convective lines will produce persistent torrential rainfall and enhance local flash flooding threat. Strong low-level shear and instability enhance the tornado threat. Cutoff upper low centered over the central Mediterranean today, GFS model guidance. Map: Pivotalweather.com A large cutoff low is centered over the Tyrrhenian sea / central Mediterranean, with the associated cold front over the Ionian sea. Strong Scirocco winds, with sustained speeds up to 50-60 km/h, produce a strong low level jet across the Ionian sea, protruding into the southern Adriatic sea. Warm air advection and moisture
A dangerous wind event is developing along the eastern Adriatic and eastern Ligurian coast tonight and tomorrow, as tightening pressure and temperature gradients result in very strong downslope Bora winds. The event will develop across the classic “Bora areas” e.g. from Apennine mountains into the Ligurian sea and from W Slovenia across the Kvarner area and Dalmatia in Croatia. Based on the latest high-resolution models, wind gusts could reach hurricane force strength and locally exceed 200 km/h – especially in the Kvarner area around the island of Pag and along the steep slopes east of Kvarner bay. Stay alert for dangerous weather conditions as travel will be disrupted and many roads closed in the area. Expected wind gusts of Bora
A potentially dangerous feature is seen on the maps this coming Thursday and Friday across Ionian sea towards S Greece – a warm core system or a so-called TLC (Mediterranean tropical like cyclone), or a “Medicane” developing between Sicily and Tunisia, moving into the Ionian sea and intensifying into a strong tropical-like cyclone with sustained winds around 85 km/h and gusts above 120 km/h. Interestingly, both global models GFS and ECMWF are hinting at its development which is quite surprising given their poor resolution against the high resolution models such as AROME, ICON, WRF, etc. The system definitely deserves more attention in the coming days as it could bring dangerous winds, excessive rainfall and high waves along the coast of
Intense rainfall is expected across Montenegro and extreme northern Albania over the next 24-30 hours, with totals approaching 200 mm, locally possibly exceeding this value. This is a potentially dangerous situation, expect major flash flooding in the area! Rainfall totals by Tuesday morning. ARPEGE and HIRLAM model guidance. Maps: Wxcharts.eu
Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions across parts of western Slovenia and northwestern Croatia on Monday, Tuesday
Strong snowfall and intense Burja/Bura winds will develop across W Slovenia and NW Croatia in response to the deepening cutoff low over the northern Mediterranean and surface low over north Italy / Adriatic sea on Monday. This will result in locally intense blizzard conditions. Heavy snowfall is expected across the northern Dinarides: up to 20-40 cm in southwestern Slovenia, with up to 50 cm and locally possibly more across the higher elevations of the Snežnik massif. Snowfall may reach down to about 500 m elevation. Heavy snowfall also across Lika and Gorski Kotar in Croatia, locally up to 50-70 cm of snow. Expect snowfall with up to 10-20 cm of snow also across the Dinarides of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Snow
Major cutoff low to form over Italy/central Mediterranean on Monday: locally heavy snowfall and strong Mistral and Bora winds coming
The trough that passed across the central Europe on Sunday will transform into a deep cutoff upper (Genoa) low as it crosses the Alps into the northern Mediterranean. The cutoff low will cause intense snowfall across the Apennines and Dinarides with locally up to 50-70 cm of snowfall and some snow down to 500 m. Also, strong Mistral and Bora winds will develop, with gusts well in excess of 100 km/h. The deep cutoff low will begin forming on Sunday evening and deepen overnight as it moves over the Ligurian sea and northern Italy. It is expected to move south into the Tyrrhenian sea by early on Tuesday. A broad and deep surface low will develop over northern Italy by
Severe thunderstorms hit the southern part of Italy and Malta with major hailstorms and torrential rainfall, which caused local flooding. Intense lightning activity with storms over southern Italy in 24h on November 10: nearly 60 000 lightning flashes recorded. Map: Blitzortung.org A weak cutoff upper low over W-CNTRL Mediterranean and north Algeria and Tunisia produced widespread thunderstorms across the central Mediterranean region, including some organized, severe thunderstorms. In particular over Sicily and Malta, torrential downpours caused locally strong flash flooding, hailstorms and a tornado. A particularly intense hailstorm hit Acate (Ragusa, Sicily), with massive hail accumulations building up in the streets. Report: Weather Sicily. Flooding in Gela, Sicily. Report: Weather Sicily. Augusta, Sicily under water. Report: Meteo real time. Major
Cold weather for central, southeastern Europe and the Mediterranean – pattern flip over the next few days
northern, central and southeastern Europe – update on the pattern change and evolution next week. With the strengthening ridge over the north Atlantic and western Europe, flow will transition from zonal into meridional and a blast of Arctic airmass will push south towards the Mediterranean. An impressively deep trough with a sharp cold front will cross the central Europe and enter the northern Mediterranean by Monday, where it will transform into a deep upper low and bring much colder than average temperatures for the rest of the week. Some severe weather will be possible along the leading cold front with rain changing to snow quite close to lowlands locally (particularly the WNW Balkan peninsula). Powerful downslope Bura/Bora winds are likely
A large, damaging tornado hit the towns of San Vito and Borgo Hermada in Lazio, central Italy, about 60 km south of Rome on Sunday, November 5. Significant damage has been reported from the towns, including damaged and destroyed roofs and uprooted trees. The tornado was described as wedge or multi-vortex, however, there is no official damage rating yet.
24. novembri ekstreemumid 2007-2017
Täna Tallinnas kõige soojem on olnud 9,2°C (1994) ja külmem -17,5°C (1809).
Täna Tartus kõige soojem on olnud 8,1°C (1982) ja külmem -19,6°C (1890).
lõunatuul puhanguti 15 m/s.
lõunatuul puhanguti 15 m/s.
Lõuna- ja kagutuul puhanguti 15 m/s.
Lõunatuul puhanguti 15 m/s.
Kagutuul 8 m/s.